Fantasy Football Middle-Round Draft Pick Values (2023)

As the fantasy football community gets more intelligent and informed, locating value in drafts becomes more challenging. Nevertheless, there are plenty of undervalued players. In fact, there are enough to avoid overlapping too much with the players featured in NFL Best Ball Draft Values for Each Round. Many of the players in that piece are also excellent values in traditional season-long managed leagues.

For instance, Trevor Lawrence, Cam Akers, James Cook, Rashaad Penny, Skyy Moore, Juwan Johnson and Sam Howell fit the bill as undervalued players in season-long leagues. So, readers are encouraged to check the linked piece out for an analysis of those seven players. Yet, only one player among the half-dozen featured in this piece is a carryover. This piece has two players from the early rounds, two from the mid and two from the late rounds. Finally, the average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR) are for half-point point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.

Draft Values to Target

Let’s take a look at players that provide value in fantasy football drafts.

Mid-Round Undervalued Players (Rounds 5-10)

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): 65.3 ADP/62 ECR

D.K. Metcalf is a physical freak and a talented wideout. Yet, the diminutive Lockett was a higher fantasy scorer the previous two years. So, it’s a bit crazy Metcalf has an ADP of 32.3 and Lockett’s is 65.3. Metcalf’s ADP is reasonable, but Lockett is a screaming value. The following table breaks down the matchup further, including routes and Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) from PFF, targets inside the 5-yard line, 10-yard line and 20-yard line from our red zone stats and traditional stats from the 2021 and 2022 regular seasons.

Lockett's a highly-efficient wideout in an ascending offense. Sure, the Seahawks used the 20th pick in this year's NFL Draft to pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Fortunately, there should be plenty of meat on the bone for the incumbent stud wideouts. According to nfelo, the Seahawks were eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (1.5% PROE) last year. And per Football Outsiders, the Seahawks were 13th in situation-neutral pace. Gamers shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on Lockett as early as the middle of the fifth round, and anything later is a bargain.

Darren Waller (TE - NYG): 76.7 ADP/76 ECR

Unfortunately, the injury bug has bit Waller in the past two years, limiting him to 20 games. It's not all bad, though. Waller is priced at an injury discount this year and performed well when on the field. He was the TE10 in 2023 and the TE5 in 2022 in PPG. And Waller was a fantasy stalwart the two years before, ranking as the TE7 and TE2 in PPG in 2019 and 2020, playing in all 32 games.

Admittedly, last year was a down season for Waller. Nevertheless, he was still productive. According to PFF, he was 11th in their receiving grade and 10th in Yards per Route Run (1.55 Y/RR) among 43 tight ends targeted at least 30 times. Moreover, Waller is only one year removed from posting 1.70 Y/RR and earning a target on 23.4% of his routes.

Waller can benefit from a change of scenery this year. The Giants traded for him, and Waller profiles as one of the few tight ends favored to lead their club in targets, putting him in elite company. Health permitting, Waller's ADP and ranking at the position are closer to his floor than his ceiling. So, Waller is precisely the type of calculated risk gamers should take slightly ahead of his ADP.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

 


Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.