I guess I’m old enough to cherish what is now considered a relic from a bygone era. The late-round QB strategy was coined by the ingenious JJ Zachariason, who successfully proved his theory through empirical research and even parlayed his groundbreaking work into an admirable career.
The proliferation of dual-threat QBs in the NFL in recent years has coerced JJ into easing off of his stance a bit, but the strategy has new life in 2023. Those amazing QBs at the top of the fantasy heap aren’t that much better than someone we can grab in the later rounds of our fantasy drafts.
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Late-Round Quarterback Strategy
Let’s explore the late-round quarterback strategy and how to implement it in your 2023 fantasy football drafts.
When to Draft a QB
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) might be a baseball stat, but for fantasy football purposes, QBs have the lowest WAR of any position on the roster. Obviously this is a complete juxtaposition from real life football, where QBs are immensely important. The whole 49ers QB room went down in 2022 and probably cost them a shot at the Super Bowl. I didn’t even need to peel myself off the couch to drop Trey Lance to waivers and pick up eventual-QB6 Geno Smith after Week 2.
How late is too late? Honestly, there really isn’t such a thing at the position in leagues that only start one QB. Justin Fields was a fantasy rocket ship in 2022 and was sorely under-drafted. Even Jalen Hurts was available much later than Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen last season.
For this strategy, the earliest I would select a QB in 2023 would be after every other starting slot is filled. For example, in a league that starts 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, and 2Flex, I would wait until the ninth round to grab a QB. According to FantasyPros ADP in PPR leagues, the following QBs are likely to still be available:
Prescott, Tagovailoa, and Jones were 9th, 10th, and 11th in fantasy points per game respectively last season; Cousins was 13th. Anthony Richardson is a rookie with gargantuan upside as a dual-threat, similar to Fields last year. Whereas Dak’s new offensive play-caller is already baked into his sunken ADP, Cousins figures to have more upside than he did in previous years. Adam Thielen finally showed his age last season and struggled to force defenses to respect him instead of doubling Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is a fantastic answer to replace Thielen and should provide more big plays. Tua was truly elite in his healthy games last season. So was Daniel Jones from a fantasy perspective, with better efficiency and fewer turnovers in his first season under Brian Daboll.
When to Draft a Second QB
Although I wouldn’t normally prescribe rostering two QBs in redraft leagues, with deep enough benches also comes the ability to stash an even deeper potential breakout performer. I did this back in 2018, when I took the safe Matt Ryan and unproven first-year starter Patrick Mahomes at the turn of rounds 10 and 11. Ryan was so good that season that it was really hard to bench him. I eventually went to Mahomes for Ryan’s bye week and never looked back on the way to an easy, breezy, beautiful championship run.
So who are the deeper-stash quarterback candidates in 2023? I have a feeling they will come from this pack of guys being drafted in the double-digit rounds:
Wilson was abysmal under Nathaniel Hackett last season, then was awesome the moment Hackett was canned. Javonte Williams‘ healthy return will help immensely, along with the addition of Marvin Mims to play alongside Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich. Sean Payton is a proven offensive mind and will have this unit humming.
Stafford’s health concerns are one more year in the rearview mirror and Cooper Kupp is back. Look for rookie Puka Nacua to earn a lot of work early on to provide the veteran QB with a second guy who can actually get open.
Kyler Murray isn’t going to miss as many games as his ADP is indicating. He will be a top-10 QB in points per game the moment he returns to action.
Sam Howell is my sleeper breakout QB this season. He would have been a surefire first round pick if he declared as a junior. He inexplicably slipped to the fifth round last year and looked awesome in limited work in 2022. Howell has rushing upside and a very strong receiving corps, plus Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
Ryan Tannehill is undervalued in fantasy every single year.
Trey Lance is the preferred fantasy option among San Francisco QBs, but Brock Purdy was solid down the stretch last season.
Wait as long as you can for QB this season and pile on the skill position talent. Let JJ’s work not be in vain. It’s more evergreen than he ever could have imagined.
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