It is never too soon to start preparing for season-long fantasy football drafts. While a lot can change between now and August, some players won’t be on anyone’s radar unless you’re plugged in all offseason.
Therefore, identifying sleeper candidates – players outside the top 100 in the FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Draft Rankings – is critical to getting ahead and staying ahead come draft time.
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Early Redraft Sleepers to Target
Here are a pair of early draft values to target.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) | ADP 178, TE23
It’s not often a rookie TE is in line to see significant volume right out of the gate. However, that’s precisely the case for Detriot Lions bookend Same LaPorta. The former Iowa Hawkeye, selected 35th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, is stepping into the role formerly occupied by TE T.J. Hockenson, who was shipped off to Minnesota after Week 7.
Though he only played in six games for Detroit, Hockeson was still fifth in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and sixth in targets and receptions for the team. With Hockenson gone, second-year TE Brock Wright stepped into the lead role at the position, seeing minimal usage but still recording four receiving touchdowns. If you take Wright’s and Hockenson’s stats as starters in Detroit combined, they would have finished as the overall point-per-reception (PPR) TE16.
While it’s unfair to think that LaPorta will step right into the volume from the combination of Hockenson and Wright, Detroit isn’t exactly flush with receiving options. Second-year wideout Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games of the 2023 season, leaving QB Jared Goff with limited options. Outside of veteran Amon-Ra St. Brown, the team’s options include Wright, 33-year-old Marvin Jones, Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds. That isn’t exactly a corps that screams “feed me,” and LaPorta will likely earn work quickly.
There isn’t much to draw on from LaPorta’s time at Iowa. The Hawkeye’s offense was one of the lowest rated in all of college football in 2022, per pff.com, with an overall grade of 63.5 and a rank of 110. However, LaPorta was among the few bright spots, averaging 7.5 targets a game. With Williams out to start the season and limited options for Goff, LaPorta could easily see five to seven targets out the gate in 2023. Given the situation and the TE landscape in the NFL, he is primed to be a steal in the 14th round of your fantasy football drafts.
Damien Harris (RB – BUF) | ADP 112, RB41
If you had to pinpoint the biggest issue in the Buffalo Bills’ offense over the last few seasons, most would agree it is their rushing attack outside QB Josh Allen. In 2022, Allen led the team in rushing touchdowns (7) and was second in carries (124) and rushing yards (762). The team’s leading rusher, Devin Singletary, bested Allen by just 57 yards despite having 53 more carries. While Allen has been phenomenal as a rusher, you don’t want your star QB carrying that much of the load in the backfield.
Buffalo addressed the lack of rushing support for Allen this offseason, bringing in veteran RB Damien Harris. Harris will replace Singletary, who signed with the Texans in free agency. Harris, who missed seven games due to injury in 2022, will likely be in a semi-committee with second-year ball carrier James Cook.
Harris’ 2022 was admittedly unimpressive. He looked slow at times and lacked the explosiveness that made him the overall PPR RB14 in 2021. However, we now know he was playing hurt, especially towards the end of the season. In games where he was on the field for more than 30 percent of snaps, Harris averaged 10.5 fantasy points per game, which over a 17-game span would have landed him as the PPR RB23, right in line with Singletary.
The Bills bringing in Harris is a bet on him staying healthy and returning to 2021 form. In that season, Harris was an endzone hog, scoring 15 touchdowns, 12 of which came on red zone touches. His 4.6 yards per carry was good enough for 5th among qualifying running backs (minimum 166 attempts), and his 15 touchdowns were second only to Johnathan Taylor. He finished the season as the PPR RB14.
Heading into 2023, Harris will be 26 years old, and if he can stay healthy, he has a ceiling similar to 2021. The Buffalo offense needs to rely less on Allen to run the ball, especially inside the 20. Harris is in line to get most of the short-yardage and red-zone work on a team that boasted the fourth-highest-scoring offense in the league in 2022. While another RB14 finish seems unlikely, especially with Cook in the mix, he should be able to outperform his current ADP of RB41 with ninth-round draft capital.
Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
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