Here are players our experts are avoiding in early fantasy football drafts. You can find our full fantasy football rankings below, along with those that the analysts are higher and lower on compared to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus and Best Ball ADP.
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Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)
The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn’t play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It’s reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he’ll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
Javonte Williams was limited to just 4 games in his second year after tearing his ACL, LCL and PCL in Week 4 against the Raiders. The injury may end up being a blessing in disguise as Williams may have struggled mightily in the Denver Broncos atrocious offense. Even before his injury, Williams ranked as the RB35 in points per game (9.0) despite ranking as the fantasy RB12 in expected points per game. And Williams’ underlying metrics were still elite, as his 116.3 PFF elusive rating ranked first among all RBs with at least 45 carries. Considering the time frame of Williams’ injury, the expectation should be that he is back by the start of the year, but the severity/complexity of his knee injury is eerily similar to J.K. Dobbins from the past year. Williams could easily come out of the gates sluggish, and the moves that Broncos have made this offseason reflect that narrative. They’ve added Samaje Perine and Tony Jones Jr. to the backfield.
- Andrew Erickson
Michael Pittman failed to build upon his breakout 2021 season last year as he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game (2021 WR22), but there’s still reason to be optimistic about Pittman. Pittman was 17th in target share (25.6%) and nearly logged one of the quietest 100 reception seasons (99 receptions) in recent memory. He was 18th in red zone targets, first in total route wins, and third in route win rate, so the talent is still there for Pittman to finish with an even better 2023 season. With the team drafting Anthony Richardson, the biggest worry for Pittman now is passing volume. Even if he continues to draw targets at a strong rate, his target volume could hard cap his upside and lower his floor. Pittman is a WR3.
- Derek Brown
Over the last two years, Dallas Goedert has averaged 56.7 yards per game and a wildly efficient 10.6 yards per target. He finished fifth in fantasy points per game in 2022, missing five late-season games with a shoulder injury. The athletic Goedert is a playmaking tight end who’s averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the last two years. His target upside may be limited, however, since the Eagles were the fourth run-heaviest team in the league last season, and since Goedert has to share targets with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert hasn’t scored more than five touchdowns in any of his five NFL seasons.
- Pat Fitzmaurice
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