The tight end position in fantasy football is a monarchy. There is an obvious king over all the land, with various lordships and fiefdoms below him. Only one fortunate (or zealous) manager may acquire the services of one Travis Kelce, but after him lies a vast and ominous wasteland of uncertainty. Who, if anyone, will rise up and challenge the crown? Let’s examine the position to clarify a real strategy that offers a strong combination of upside and value.
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How to Draft Your Fantasy Football Tight End
First of all, it is worth drafting Kelce as early as the first round. In all likelihood, he will be the TE1 overall by a decent margin again. He is conjoined at the brain stem with one of the greatest quarterbacks the game has ever seen and one of the sharpest offensive coaching minds in the sport. The real question is, what if this season is a repeat of 2021 and Kelce is not the best TE for fantasy? I have a plan.
Have a Plan With Tiers
Tier-based rankings play a huge role in managing an effective draft strategy, especially with TEs. Assuming Kelce is in a tier by his lonesome, I believe there to be a second very strong tier with the same ceiling as the Chiefs’ weapon. Perhaps this tier only lacks the assured stability we enjoy when rostering Kelce, but if the dominos fall favorably, we could get a breakout performer at a lower acquisition cost. I call this tier the “No Qualms” group. As in, if I miss out on drafting Kelce, I have no qualms about spending an early pick on a member of this next tier. These are the No Qualms TEs for 2023.
Mark Andrews was the TE1 in 2021, making him the only player to take that crown from Kelce since 2016. The new high-octane passing attack in Baltimore under offensive coordinator Todd Monken is going to score a ridiculous number of touchdowns this season.
Kyle Pitts had the most unrealized air yards in the NFL last season, thanks to a comically low rate of catchable targets before going down with a knee injury. He is still The Unicorn and the best TE prospect in the history of the game. Even middling QB play in Atlanta could unleash Pitts into an unstoppable monster.
George Kittle returned to elite production the moment his kryptonite (Jimmy Garoppolo) was out of the picture. Whether it’s Brock Purdy or Trey Lance is immaterial to another gigantic year for Stone Cold. He is currently a value in drafts with an ADP in the fifth round in PPR.
TJ Hockenson might have lost a touch of target share from his torrid pace following last season’s trade, thanks to Minnesota selecting Jordan Addison in the first round of the draft. Addison will likely occupy the flanker spot opposite Justin Jefferson, leaving the middle of the field for the supremely talented Iowa alum. Hockenson as part of a lethal Vikings passing attack, especially without Dalvin Cook in the picture, makes for a TE pick with tantalizing upside.
The Leftovers
After these high-upside weapons, there lies a treacherous and precipitous drop in confidence level for me at the position. In addition to ADPs that coincide with better options at RB and WR, I feel equally confident in a few options readily available in the double-digit rounds. It is my strong belief that missing out on the Kelce and No Qualms guys warrants a long wait at the position for value’s sake. Here are my late-round TE targets.
Although Njoku is currently going in the ninth round, he has still slipped into the 10th or later plenty of times in drafts I’ve been a part of. The Browns figure to get a little more pass-happy to keep Nick Chubb‘s workload manageable. This unlocks Njoku as a top-three option for Deshaun Watson alongside Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore.
Okonkwo’s volume-adjusted metrics last season were off the charts. He is incredibly athletic and part of a passing game completely bereft of receiving talent after Treylon Burks. Ryan Tannehill remains one of the more under-appreciated QBs in the NFL. He has been, and will be able to, support two productive receivers in the passing game. Okonkwo stands to explode with a level-up in his role.
Sean Payton is going to love Dulcich. The UCLA alum is well-rounded and established good chemistry with Russell Wilson, in spite of the horrendously dysfunctional coaching he had as a rookie. All signs point to a rebound season for the Broncos under Payton. This bodes well for Dulcich to potentially line up as Wilson’s second-favorite target behind Jerry Jeudy. He has upside for days at his ADP of 147.
The three rookies are all going far too late in redraft formats. It’s puzzling to see such wild overpays for Kincaid in dynasty drafts, but he’s actually falling much too far in redraft. Similar to Dulcich, Kincaid is well-rounded as a blocker and receiver and will have a good shot at staying on the field as a slot receiver when Buffalo goes to 11-personnel (one RB, one TE).
LaPorta has virtually no competition for TE snaps in Detroit and is a wrecking ball after the catch. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was the most productive rookie TE in 2023.
Mayer was the consensus TE1 in the 2023 class until right before the Draft. The Raiders only have Austin Hooper and OJ Howard in town, meaning Mayer is probably already “the guy” right out of training camp. Don’t sleep on his innate talent and football acumen.
Although TEs are the trickiest position to draft in this silly game we play, I have found plenty of success on my own teams to support this tier-based strategy. Best of luck this season picking the right one!
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