Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns running back averaged five yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top-10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came prior to Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game.

These splits likely won’t carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense’s overall efficiency. This makes Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb also can capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson no longer on the roster. 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB. In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and caught five of six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.