While the 2023 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to prepare for the fantasy season. Plenty will change between now and the end of August. However, one of the toughest things fantasy players have to do is make tough decisions between two players with a similar average draft position (ADP).
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ADP Analysis & Draft Advice
Today I am going to compare two sets of players. I will explain why you should draft each player and determine who will have more fantasy value this season.
The first set is Kyle Pitts (ADP: 69.8 | TE5) and Dallas Goedert (ADP: 73.9 | TE6).
The second set is Juwan Johnson (ADP: 164.9 | TE19) and Taysom Hill (ADP: 166.5 | TE21).
The Argument for Kyle Pitts
When the Atlanta Falcons used the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Pitts, the tight end came with high expectations. The former Gator had an impressive rookie season, ending the year as the TE7, averaging 8.4 half-point point per reception (PPR) fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Pitts was a top-seven tight end despite finishing 178th in the NFL with only one receiving touchdown.
More importantly, he had over 1,000 receiving yards, making him and Mike Ditka the only two tight ends with over 1,000 receiving yards in their rookie year. While Matt Ryan wasn’t a superstar, Pitts severely missed the veteran quarterback last season.
After trading away the former franchise quarterback, Atlanta signed Marcus Mariota. However, the former No. 2 overall pick was a disaster for the young tight end. Pitts saw his catch rate drop from 61.8% as a rookie to 47.5% last year. The young tight end had only a 59.3% catchable target rate last season, one of the worst in the NFL.
Furthermore, the veteran quarterback completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts 20 or more yards downfield. Unfortunately, Pitts missed the final seven games of the year with a knee injury. Therefore, fantasy players never got to see the young tight end play with Desmond Ridder.
The Argument for Dallas Goedert
Last year the veteran was the TE12, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet Goedert ended the season as the TE5 on a points-per-game basis after missing five games with a shoulder injury. The former South Dakota State star had a 17-game pace of 78 receptions on 98 targets for 995 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Goedert would have ranked among the top three tight ends in receptions and receiving yards with those 17-game pace numbers.
The veteran tight end was very efficient last season. Goedert finished first among tight ends with at least 65 targets in yards after the catch per reception (6.8). Furthermore, he finished top four in yards per route run (1.79). More importantly, the veteran cleaned up his drop problem from 2021. Goedert had six drops two years ago, a career-high.
Last year the veteran matchup his career best with only two. Meanwhile, Goedert finished top seven among tight ends in target share (19.4%), snap share (90%), and route participation (84%).
The Verdict
Pitts has unjustly been labeled the boy who cried wolf in the fantasy football community. Last year he struggled because of Marcus Mariota. However, many want to blame Arthur Smith. Yet, he was the head coach in 2021 when Pitts finished fifth among tight ends and 32nd in the NFL with 110 targets as a rookie.
Furthermore, the former Gator finished ninth among tight ends in target rate (23.6%) as a rookie before having the highest target rate among tight ends last year (34.3%). Unfortunately, Pitts went from 11th in catchable target rate as a rookie to 37th in 2022.
Meanwhile, Goedert had one of the top quarterbacks throwing him the ball last year. Jalen Hurts finished top six in accuracy rating, true passing rating, QBR, and true completion percentage in 2022. Furthermore, the star quarterback finished eighth in deep ball completion percentage (42.4%). However, the most important number is Goedert’s catchable target rate.
The veteran tight end had the second-highest rate (94.1%), finishing 34.8% higher than Pitts. Ironically, Mariota is Hurts’ backup in Philadelphia. Let’s all hope he never sees the field.
Both tight ends are good values, given their ADP. However, Pitts has much more upside. Goedert has five years of NFL experience. Yet, he has never totaled more than 87 targets for 830 receiving yards in any year of his career. Meanwhile, Pitts has 27 career games. Yet, he had over 100 targets and 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie.
Furthermore, the former Gator has a 91.2% route participation rate in his career. By comparison, Goedert had an 88.5% route participation rate over the past two years.
While both tight ends are solid fantasy options, Pitts has a far higher ceiling. Not only is he the better athlete and talent, but his situation is better for fantasy players. The Falcons have one fantasy-relevant wide receiver – Drake London. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles had two top-10 wide receivers last year. A.J. Brown was the WR5, while DeVonta Smith was the WR9.
Some will argue that Desmond Ridder will limit Pitts’ fantasy production. However, the former Cincinnati star can’t be any worse than Marcus Mariota was last season.
The Argument for Juwan Johnson
After playing wide receiver in college, Johnson switched to tight end in the NFL. His ability to create mismatches became clear in 2021. Despite having only 13 receptions, the young tight end had four receiving touchdowns. He finished third on the team in receiving touchdowns and 12th among tight ends. Furthermore, Johnson had more receiving touchdowns than Darren Waller that season.
More importantly, the former college wide receiver took on more of a role last year.
Johnson had 42 receptions on 65 targets for 508 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, all career highs. He led the team in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets. More importantly, the third-year tight end finished 15th in the NFL with seven receiving touchdowns. Travis Kelce and George Kittle were the only tight ends with more receiving touchdowns than Johnson.
Meanwhile, the emerging star finished fourth in yards per reception (12.1) among tight ends with at least 60 targets, averaging only 0.1 fewer yards than Kelce.
The Argument for Taysom Hill
Let’s be honest here – we all hate Hill. The “tight end” was the TE5 last season, averaging 8.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the veteran had only nine receptions on 13 targets for 77 receiving yards. By comparison, Tanner Hudson was the TE72 last year but had more receptions than Hill.
The veteran has averaged only 0.5 receptions per game in his career. Furthermore, Hill’s career high for receptions in a game is three. However, the “tight end” was fantasy relevant because of his role in the run game.
The veteran had 96 rushing attempts for 575 yards last year, both career highs. More importantly, Hill led the New Orleans Saints with seven rushing touchdowns. By comparison, the rest of the team had five rushing touchdowns last season, with Alvin Kamara finishing second with two. The former BYU quarterback became New Orleans’ goal-line running back last year. He also had 17.7% of his rushing attempts go for 10 or more yards. However, can Hill repeat those numbers in 2023?
The Verdict
New Orleans signed Johnson to an extension this offseason, keeping the tight end with the team through the 2025 season. More importantly, the former college wide receiver was the TE11 last year, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points. Furthermore, Johnson was efficient with his targets. While he finished 26th among tight ends in target rate (19.2%), Johnson finished 17th in targets (65), sixth in average depth of target (aDOT) (9.4), and ninth in air yards (609). Meanwhile, his teammate is a gadget player, not a tight end.
Why is Hill listed as a tight end instead of a running back? The former quarterback has only 21 receptions on 31 targets for 227 receiving yards and three touchdowns over the past three years. Yet, the veteran averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game during that span, averaging at least 8.5 fantasy points per game every season.
More importantly, Hill was inconsistent for fantasy players. He scored 24.1% of his fantasy points for the year in the Week 5 matchup, where the veteran had three rushing touchdowns. By comparison, Hill averaged 7.2 fantasy points per game in the other 15 contests.
Meanwhile, the Saints did everything possible to help Johnson’s fantasy value while hurting Hill’s this offseason. New Orleans didn’t re-sign Jarvis Landry or Marquez Callaway in free agency. The team also traded away Adam Trautman. The trio had 93 targets last year. Yet, the Saints waited until the sixth round of the NFL Draft to select a pass catcher.
While Michael Thomas will return in 2023, the veteran has played only 20% of the games over the past three years. Chris Olave will be the No. 1 wide receiver, but Johnson should be the favorite to finish second on the team in targets.
Last year the veteran played a critical role in the run game. However, that won’t be the case in 2023. The Saints signed Jamaal Williams in free agency. Last season he led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns. New Orleans also spent a third-round pick in the NFL Draft on Kendre Miller. After finishing second on the team in rushing attempts last year, Hill’s role in the run game will shrink.
Therefore, fantasy players should expect the veteran’s fantasy production to regress, barring significant injuries to the New Orleans’ backfield.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
