While the 2023 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to prepare for the fantasy season. Plenty will change between now and the end of August. However, one of the toughest things fantasy players have to do is make tough decisions between two players with a similar average draft position (ADP).
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ADP Analysis & Draft Advice
Today I am going to compare two sets of players. I will explain why you should draft each player and determine who will have more fantasy value this season.
The first set is Davante Adams (ADP: 13.6 | WR9) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP: 14.1 | WR10). The second set is Diontae Johnson (ADP: 65.6 | WR34) and Mike Evans (ADP: 67.7 | WR35).
The Argument for Davante Adams
After spending the first eight years of his career with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, Adams spent last season with the Las Vegas Raiders. While some were worried the superstar wouldn’t put up the same elite numbers with Derek Carr, Adams actually saw a career-high 180 targets in 2022. Furthermore, the veteran had the second-most touchdowns of his career (14). More importantly, the superstar receiver was the WR3 last year, averaging 16.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Adams has been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL over the past several years. He has three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions. Furthermore, the veteran has back-to-back years with over 1,500 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders added Jakobi Meyers in free agency. However, they also traded away Darren Waller. Hunter Renfrow‘s name has reportedly been floated around the trade market too. Adams will remain the high-target volume WR1 for Las Vegas regardless of who else is on the field.
The Argument for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Despite being a fourth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, St. Brown has become one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football. He ended his rookie season on fire, averaging 20.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the final six weeks. The rookie was the WR2 during those six weeks, averaging only 1.7 fantasy points per game less than Cooper Kupp. Yet, the fantasy community underestimated the talented receiver heading into last season.
The former USC star was the WR8 in 2022, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. However, St. Brown missed the Week 4 matchup with an injury and only played 17% of the snaps in Week 7. The second-year receiver had only 0.9 fantasy points in that Week 7 contest. Removing that game from his year-long production, St. Brown averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the former USC star finished ninth in the league in targets (146) but sixth in receptions (106).
The Verdict
Many believe Adams proved he is quarterback proof last year playing with Derek Carr. However, will the superstar receiver see the same target volume with Jimmy Garoppolo? Furthermore, will Garoppolo be the starting quarterback for Las Vegas this season? The veteran quarterback is still healing from a foot injury he suffered last year with the San Francisco 49ers. While the quarterback situation isn’t a reason to put Adams on your do-not-draft list, it is a concern.
Last year St. Brown had more than double the targets of anyone else on the team. Furthermore, he had 82 more targets than any other wide receiver. Yet, the Lions weren’t aggressive in free agency. Instead, they signed Marvin Jones Jr. to a one-year contract. Meanwhile, they waited until the seventh round of the NFL Draft to select a wide receiver. However, Detroit did spend two early draft picks on pass catchers – Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
Both wide receivers are worthy of their top-10 status. However, Adams comes with more risk. The Raiders made multiple changes this offseason on offense. Not only did they make the switch at quarterback, but they swapped Waller for Meyers. However, the team also signed Austin Hooper and drafted Michael Mayer with an early second-round pick. Adams had 180 targets last year, a career-high. Yet, the veteran caught only 55.6% of his targets, the lowest percentage of his career since his sophomore season.
Meanwhile, St. Brown should have another high target volume season. While the Lions added Gibbs and LaPorta during the NFL Draft, the team lost over 165 targets from last year’s team. One of those players is D’Andre Swift. The running back finished second on the team with 70 targets. Gibbs will fill that role, meaning LaPorta is the only real threat to St. Brown’s 28.1% target share from 2022. More importantly, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games this season because of a suspension. Both wide receivers are worthy of their ADP, but St. Brown has the safer floor and more upside.
The Argument for Diontae Johnson
Two years ago, Johnson was a top-10 wide receiver. He was the WR9, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the star receiver had eight receiving touchdowns, a career-high. Unfortunately, Johnson had awful luck last season. Despite having the seventh-most targets in the NFL last year (147), the veteran had zero receiving touchdowns. By comparison, Dyami Brown had two receiving touchdowns last year on only 14 targets and five receptions.
The good news is Johnson can’t have that bad of luck in the touchdown department again in 2023. The veteran averaged 6.7 receiving touchdowns per year in his career before last season. If he had six receiving touchdowns last year, Johnson would have ended the season as the WR20, averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game. The veteran receiver has seen at least 144 targets in three consecutive seasons. No one should be surprised if it becomes four in a row this year.
The Argument for Mike Evans
Evans has arguably been the most consistent wide receiver since entering the NFL in 2014. The veteran has totaled at least 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career. Furthermore, the former Texas A&M star has four seasons with 12 or more receiving touchdowns on his resume. Meanwhile, Evans was the WR16 last year, averaging 12.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, last season was the fifth consecutive year he averaged at least 12.5 fantasy points per contest.
While Tampa Bay’s offense was inconsistent last year, Evans had 1,124 receiving yards. Not only did the veteran lead the team in receiving yards, but it was the highest total the former Texas A&M star had during Tom Brady’s three years with the Buccaneers. More importantly, he had at least six targets in 80% of the games last season. Evans had more than 77 receptions in a season only twice in his career. Yet, the veteran receiver has never ended any year of his career lower than the WR23.
The Verdict
Unfortunately, Johnson had the worst luck in the NFL last season. To have 86 receptions on 147 targets and not score a touchdown is historically bad luck. The good news is Johnson won’t have that happen to him again in 2023. More importantly, the veteran averaged a touchdown once per 20.3 targets in his career before the last season. Furthermore, Johnson has seen at least 144 targets in three consecutive years. Fantasy players should expect the star receiver to have massive positive touchdown regression in 2023.
Many are worried about Evans, given the change at quarterback. The former Texas A&M star played with Tom Brady over the past three years. However, he spent most of his early career with Jameis Winston. Therefore, the drop in talent from Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask isn’t the end of the world for Evans. Unfortunately, there is a significant concern with the star receiver. He was the WR26, averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game before the Week 17 matchup. Evans scored half of his touchdowns and 23.4% of his fantasy points in that contest.
Johnson should be a popular rebound and value candidate this year. Not only will he see his touchdown production improve, but the veteran doesn’t have much competition for targets. The Steelers traded away Chase Claypool at the trade deadline last year. Yet, the only wide receiver addition this offseason was Allen Robinson. While George Pickens should become more consistent in his second NFL season, Johnson will remain Kenny Pickett‘s No. 1 wide receiver and go-to target.
Fantasy players shouldn’t put Evans on their do-not-draft lists. However, it’s reasonable to expect the veteran to have the worst year of his career in 2023. The quarterback change is a concern. Furthermore, the Buccaneers changed offensive coordinators this offseason. More importantly, the massive Week 17 performance boosted Evans’ end-of-season numbers. While the Tampa Bay star is a solid pick as the 35th wide receiver off the board, fantasy players should draft Johnson way ahead of Evans.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
