While the 2023 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to prepare for the fantasy season. Plenty will change between now and the end of August. However, one of the toughest things fantasy players have to do is make tough decisions between two players with a similar ADP.
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ADP Analysis & Draft Advice
Today I am going to compare two sets of players. I will explain why you should draft each player and determine who will have more fantasy value this season.
The first set is Jalen Hurts (ADP: 24.6 | QB2) and Josh Allen (ADP: 26.6 | QB3). The second set is Geno Smith (ADP: 114.3 | QB15) and Jared Goff (ADP: 127.8 | QB17).
The Argument for Jalen Hurts
Hurts was a popular quarterback breakout candidate last year. The former Oklahoma star ended the 2022 season as the QB3, averaging 25.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he was the top fantasy quarterback on a points-per-game basis. Hurts has been a fantasy superstar in the run game since taking over as the full-time starter in 2021. Over the past two years, the superstar has averaged 51.5 rushing yards per game, totaling 23 rushing touchdowns in 30 contests.
However, Hurts became a much better passer last year after the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown in the offseason. He completed 66.5 percent of his pass attempts for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns, all career highs. Furthermore, the star quarterback had only six interceptions, throwing one once per 76.7 pass attempts. Hurts had two or more passing touchdowns in 40 percent of his games in 2021, with only one performance with three or more touchdowns. Meanwhile, he had two more passing touchdowns in 53.3 percent of the games last season, including three contests with three or more passing scores.
The Argument for Josh Allen
Many people had their doubts about Allen early in his career. However, the former Wyoming quarterback has been a superstar since the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs. Over the past three years, the quarterback has averaged at least 23.7 fantasy points per game every season. Furthermore, Allen has averaged 4,411.3 passing yards and 36 touchdowns per season over the past three years. Meanwhile, the improvements in the passing game haven’t hurt the quarterback’s rushing production. Allen has averaged 7.6 rushing touchdowns per year in his career, totaling at least six every season.
Unfortunately, the superstar has struggled with protecting the ball over the past few years. Allen had 31 interceptions over the first three years of his career, averaging an interception once per 46.7 pass attempts. Yet, he had 29 interceptions the past two seasons, averaging one once per 41.8 pass attempts. Furthermore, Allen has finished top-three in interceptions the past two years. However, the superstar is one of the best at pushing the ball downfield, totaling a 31.6 percent big-time throw rate last season (pass attempts of 20 or more yards).
The Verdict
While some were skeptical about Hurts early in his career, the Philadelphia quarterback became a fantasy superstar last year. However, he still has room to grow. Hurts is entering his second season with A.J. Brown as his No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, the Eagles will likely use the quarterback more in the run game this season. Last year Miles Sanders had 259 rushing attempts and 11 touchdowns, both career highs. Unfortunately, he signed with the Carolina Panthers in free agency, leaving Philadelphia without their No. 1 running back. The loss of Sanders will lead to more goal-line work for Hurts.
The Bills added Damien Harris and Latavius Murray this offseason, as the team wants to improve their power run game. The additions have some fantasy players worried that Allen’s rushing production decline this year. However, the superstar would have been the QB4 last season, averaging 21 fantasy points per game, even if he had only 50% of his rushing production. Meanwhile, the Bills improved Allen’s supporting cast this offseason, adding veteran wide receiver Deonte Harty in free agency and tight end Dalton Kincaid during the NFL Draft.
There isn’t a wrong answer with these two quarterbacks. It’s like picking between strawberry and vanilla-flavored ice cream; both are excellent options. However, I will give a slight nod to Allen. Fantasy players have seen three years of elite production from Allen compared to one for Hurts. More importantly, Hurts hasn’t played a complete season in his career. He missed two games last year and in 2021 because of injury.
Allen has a slightly lower ADP than Hurts. Yet, fantasy players can feel confident drafting either player as their QB1 and expect elite production. The only mistake would be taking Hurts or Allen over Patrick Mahomes. While the quarterback position has never been deeper for fantasy players, Hurts and Allen are both worthy of their current ADPs.
The Argument for Geno Smith
Do you believe in miracles? After seeing what Smith did last year, I do. The veteran quarterback was a career backup, totaling under 45 pass attempts in all but one of the previous six seasons. Furthermore, he had 95 pass attempts in 2021 after starting three games for an injured Russell Wilson. Yet, that was the highest total for Smith since 2014 with the New York Jets. However, the former West Virginia star quarterback was the biggest surprise in fantasy football last season.
Many believed Smith would get benched at some point during the year for Drew Lock. Instead, the veteran quarterback made the Pro Bowl. More importantly, he was the QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. Smith also led the NFL in competition percentage (69.8 percent) and finished fourth in passing touchdowns (30). By comparison, he had 34 career passing touchdowns in 45 games before last season. Furthermore, the veteran had at least two passing touchdowns in over 70 percent of the games in 2022.
The Argument for Jared Goff
Despite being the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, many wrote Goff off as a bust when he got traded to the Lions. However, the veteran quarterback had an excellent year in 2022. He was the QB10, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game, the second-highest average of his career. Furthermore, Goff had 29 passing touchdowns, the second most of his career and the fifth most in the NFL. The veteran also had the lowest interception rate of his career, throwing one only once per 83.9 pass attempts. More importantly, he was this productive despite a limited receiving corps.
Goff always had a talented set of weapons with the Los Angeles Rams. However, that wasn’t the case last year in Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the only player on the team with over 50 receptions. Furthermore, he was the only wide receiver with more than three receiving touchdowns. Yet, Goff made the most of his poor supporting cast. Even after trading T.J. Hockenson away, the Lions got nine receiving touchdowns from their other tight ends, thanks to the veteran quarterback’s play in the red zone.
The Verdict
Despite signing a three-year extension this offseason, the Seahawks weren’t all-in on Smith. The team reportedly was interested in selecting a quarterback with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, Seahawks didn’t use a single draft pick on a quarterback. Furthermore, the team used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, giving Smith three talented wide receivers at his disposal. The Seahawks also invested multiple draft picks in the offensive line.
Similarly, the Lions were reportedly in the mix to draft a quarterback with one of their two first-round picks. However, they used their top selection on Jahmyr Gibbs, who will fill D’Andre Swift’s role in the passing game. While the Lions did select Hendon Hooker in the third round, the rookie won’t see the field this year unless Goff suffers an injury. Furthermore, the team and the veteran quarterback have discussed a contract extension. More importantly, Detroit spent an early second-round pick on Sam LaPorta. The rookie tight end could have an immediate impact for the Lions.
This time last year, fantasy players were expecting the Seahawks and Lions to struggle, leading to Smith and Goff getting replaced by a rookie. Instead, both veterans had excellent years and will get another season as the unquestioned starter. Yet, Smith and Goff have a lower ADP than Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson.
Last year Tagovailoa struggled to stay healthy and was inconsistent when on the field. Meanwhile, Richardson is a rookie with limited college production. He also might not start in Week 1 and will be part of an unpredictable and young offense. Similarly to Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, fantasy players can’t go wrong with either later-round quarterback. However, Smith has more upside and a likely safer floor, thanks to his trio of talented wide receivers. Meanwhile, Goff has multiple young pass catchers that might take some time to develop.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
