The fact that it is already week 12 of the fantasy baseball season is blowing my mind. I swear it was just the offseason, I blinked and now the all-star break is quickly approaching. As are the fantasy playoffs which, in some cases, is essentially at the halfway point. This is the point where you start to make or break your season.
That’s where me and this article come in handy. If you’ve checked out previous weeks, you’ve likely been able to take advantage of some excellent matchups before the rest of your league mates. This week has been especially productive so far. Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, and Luke Raley have all had great weeks thus far. Now let’s make next week even better.
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Fantasy Baseball Week 12 Planner
Favorable Matchups
Cincinnati Reds: vs COL (3), vs ATL (3)
The talk of the baseball world, the darling of the fantasy baseball world, the team that’s gone from nothing to exciting…the Cincinnati Reds once again make the list of favorable matchups of the week. First of all, they play six games at home. Great American Ballpark is where average hitters become good. Good hitters become great. And Elly De La Cruz becomes a god.
On the road this season, Colorado’s pitching has given up 44 home runs (7th most), has a 4.54 ERA (10th worst), and is 24th in the league in strikeouts. They’re also last in Pitching+. Flat out not good. Atlanta on the other hand has been great, but with them running out guys like Dylan Dodd and Jared Schuster, they’ve proven to be very very hittable. Especially in a place like Great American Ballpark.
Hitters To Target
Steer has been on a hot streak as of late and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Since May 1st he’s hitting .292 with 19 XBH, 28 RBI, a 10% walk rate, and a strikeout rate of just 15.2%. With the Reds facing a mix of righties and lefties this week it’s important to note that Steer hits equally well against both although he does have a bit more pop against righties. Look for a solid contribution from him in week 12.
Elly De La Cruz (3B,SS – CIN)
If there’s one thing that can help the uber-talented mega-prospect get back on track, it’s an entire week’s worth of games played at home. He’s seen his share of struggles against lefties thus far but it’s only a 12-at-bat sample size so try not to read into it too much. Already sporting a 10.5% barrel rate, 92 MPH average exit velocity, and 100th percentile sprint speed, Elly should feast on the Rockies’ pitching staff next week.
Elly De La Cruz’s first hit is a double 112 MPH off the bat
He then proceeds to register a 30.4 FPS sprint speed on his way to second base…in the 99th percentile…
He really is a unicorn
pic.twitter.com/tvx9Ujin51— Blake Meyer (@Buhhlockaye) June 7, 2023
Cleveland Guardians: vs OAK (3), vs MIL (3)
It feels like the Guardian’s offense is starting to get back on track. What better teams to keep that momentum going against than the Athletics and Brewers? Look, I understand that Oakland has been on a nice little trend of winning lately but their pitching is not good enough. At best, they do a good job of striking hitters out, but Cleveland is the second hardest lineup in the league to strikeout at just 19%
Milwaukee on the other hand just can’t seem to get things going. Their pitching staff has been a bit off as of late. They have a team ERA of 4.08 in the month of June and their 15% HR/FB ratio is the seventh worst in the league. Cleveland has some potential power threats which could end up taking advantage of that in week 12.
Hitters To Target
I understand that overall, Rosario has had a disappointing season, but at home, he’s actually been really damn good. Hitting .303 with 14 XBH and six stolen bases compared to just .165 with two XBH on the road. He’s upped his line drive rate at home and made good use of that 96th-percentile sprint speed. Something he should continue to do moving forward.
Yet another member of that Cleveland lineup is playing excellent baseball at home. He’s hitting .306 with 10 XBH and 22 RBI so far at home. He’s been an absolute RBI machine this year as well driving in 50 not halfway into the season. He’s done a great job of limiting strikeouts this season and hitting with runners in scoring position. He should have plenty of opportunities to continue that trend at the very least against Oakland.
Matchups To Avoid
Baltimore Orioles: @TBR (2), vs SEA (3)
I’m honestly not sure you could cook up a less beneficial week of matchups than the one the Orioles have to deal with in week 12. First of all, they have just five games this week which we all know isn’t ideal. Second, they face the red-hot Rays for two games and follow it up by facing baseball’s best pitching staff in Seattle. Seattle has shown they can be beatable lately but their starters are firing on all cylinders. I know Baltimore has been hot but this is when they cool down.
Hitters To Avoid
He started out the year as one of the hottest hitters in baseball but has since cooled off tremendously. On the year he’s hitting just .195 off right-handed pitching. Something Baltimore looks to face a mighty helping of in week 12. Since May 1st, he’s hitting just .152 overall with three extra-base hits. Not an encouraging sign for fantasy lineups moving forward.
Jorge Mateo is THAT dude. pic.twitter.com/IiaZpNDfaA
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) April 30, 2023
In the grand scheme of things, I love me some Anthony Santander this season. There’s a reason he was the first person on my must-own players list for this year. That being said, in a week where he has to face Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Santander is a switch hitter who hits righties for much more power but has a far worse batting average in his career, and this season has been no different. He may sneak in a couple of XBH but expect lots of strikeouts for Santander in Week 12.
New York Mets: @HOU (3), @PHI (3)
The Mets have been one of baseballs biggest disappointments this season. One look at their week 12 matchups will tell you that’s not likely to change soon. Their three game set against Houston lines them up to face Framber Valdez, JP France and Cristian Javier. All of which excel pitching at home.
The Phillies present their own set of challenges. New York is set to face both Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler. A daunting task. Wheeler has given up just one earned run in his previous two starts with an impressive 26.5% K-BB rate.
Hitters To Avoid
It’s no secret the 2022 NL batting champion has struggled a bit this season. Especially as of late. Hitting in the heart of that Mets lineup he’s managed just 20 RBI so far this season. He’s also hitting .273 which would be good for many hitters but it’s underachieving by McNeil’s standards. In June he’s hitting just .213 with just three XBH and four RBI. Facing this tough stretch of pitching likely won’t help McNeil’s production for the time being.
Marte has quietly been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments so far this season. After a 2022 season hitting .292 and flashing 20/20 upside his power has completely disappeared. He has just three home runs thus far and just nine total XBH in his 60 games this season. The 19 stolen bases are nice, but his average is down 40 points from last year and he walks less than 5% of the time. Tough to keep up solid stolen base production when you don’t get in case nearly as much. Expect a dud of a week from Marte.
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