This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Gavin Williams (SP – CLE)
Gavin Williams was mentioned in this column last month as a long-term play, both this season and moving forward, as a potential dynasty addition.
At the time, the top prospect was thriving in the minors but was stuck behind a plethora of rotation options on the Cleveland organizational depth chart.
Fast forward to the present, and Williams has continued to find success at the Triple-A level this season, with a 2.93 ERA, a 4.11 FIP, 61 strikeouts, and 21 walks in nine starts spanning 46 innings for the Guardians’ top minor league affiliate.
That hasn’t changed too much.
What has changed is the aforementioned Cleveland organizational depth chart.
Triston McKenzie was recently placed on the injured list with a right elbow sprain, joining fellow starters Cal Quantrill and Peyton Battenfield on the injured list. The injured list placements leave Cleveland with a rotation picture led by Shane Bieber and also featuring Aaron Civale, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen.
And while that group has had varying levels of success, most of it generally good, the team’s depth is certainly being tested. With Zach Plesac no longer on the 40-man roster, Cleveland’s next rotation options include Williams and Hunter Gaddis.
And while Gaddis is already on the 40-man roster – Williams isn’t yet – the 25-year-old has struggled mightily so far in 2023, regardless of level.
In 31.1 innings in the Majors, Gaddis has pitched to a 5.17 ERA and a 4.84 FIP for Cleveland, adding only 21 strikeouts compared to nine walks.
At Triple-A, he’s struck out batters more frequently, with 30 punchouts in 25.2 innings. However, the right-hander has also allowed runs more frequently, with a 6.31 ERA and a 6.06 FIP for the Guardians’ Triple-A club in Columbus.
This is all to say Williams’ opportunity in the Majors could be getting closer and closer. He’s certainly still someone to target in dynasty leagues, but his fantasy redraft ceiling and season-long outlook are improving by the day.
Considering how quickly Bibee and Allen hit the ground running in Cleveland – not to mention the organization’s past success at developing starting pitchers – it’s possible your league mates will (rightfully) look at him as a priority in FAB and waivers whenever he’s called up. Stash him now so you can avoid all that commotion.
Carlos Hernandez (SP, RP – KC)
The Kansas City Royals, with a 19-52 record as of the start of play on Monday, look like definite sellers at the trade deadline.
Reliever duo Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow have both enjoyed quality seasons so far and would stand out as speculative trade candidates should the team look to trade veterans.
- Aroldis Chapman In 2023: 24.1 IP, 16.27 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 2.96 ERA, 1.75 FIP
- Scott Barlow In 2023: 25.2 IP, 12.62 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 4.21 ERA, 3.51 FIP
Unsurprisingly the two, who also double as arguably the two most established relievers in Kansas City’s bullpen, have combined for all seven of the Royals’ saves this year.
Those seven saves currently are alone at the bottom of the league rankings where save totals are concerned. And while deals to trade away the likes of Chapman, Barlow, and other veterans will hardly increase Kansas City’s save chances moving forward, it could create potential ninth-inning work and fantasy relevance for one of the Royals’ other relievers.
Enter Carlos Hernandez, who is second on the Royals’ pitching staff (relievers and starters) in fWAR behind only Chapman.
His 4.79 ERA is slightly misleading, but his 2.74 FIP is anything but. The 26-year-old has also struck out 44 batters in 35.2 innings while scattering just 10 walks and three home runs.
The right-hander throws four pitches with a usage rate of at least 7.6%. He’s also thrown six sinkers this year – good for a one percent usage rate – but his primary offerings are a four-seamer, a slider, a split-finger offering, and a curveball.
The slider has been used more against right-handed hitters, and the split-finger offering, which has been utilized mostly against left-handed batters, are both sporting whiff rates of 38%.
And while it remains to be seen who would take over as Kansas City’s closer in the hypothetical event where Chapman and Barlow are traded, Hernandez’s ability to get both right-handers and left-handers out certainly shouldn’t hurt his chances.
Carlos Hernandez 2023 Splits
- Against Left-Handed Hitters: .268 wOBA, .224 average, .278 on-bae percentage, .328 slugging percentage
- Against Right-Handed Hitters: .278 wOBA, .221 average .267 on-base percentage, .382 slugging percentage
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Bryce Miller (SP – SEA)
Bryce Miller burst onto the scene with 10 strikeouts in six innings during his first Major League start on May 2, scattering just two hits and an earned run in the process.
Miller proceeded to give up just three earned runs – all of which came in Atlanta on May 19 – in his next four starts.
With a 1.15 ERA, a 1.87 FIP, 28 strikeouts, and just three walks (and no home runs) allowed in his first 31.1 career innings, expectations were justifiably high for Miller moving forward – both in redraft and dynasty formats.
Then a two-stretch start From May 29 through June 4, where Miller was tagged for 19 hits, 15 earned runs, three home runs, and two walks in seven combined innings happened.
Overall, in combination with Miller’s last two starts, that puts the talented right-hander’s season stat line as the following.
A 3.68 ERA with a 3.12 FIP, 45 strikeouts, as well as eight walks and four home runs allowed.
It’s still a quality bit of production for a stater’s first 50 innings, but it isn’t quite on par with Miller’s early-season performance.
Still, expectations should be high moving forward for the right-hander. An ERA below 2.00 was always going to be unsustainable, but ERA production more in line with (or perhaps better than) his season-long FIP is certainly feasible for the right-hander.
And it’s not just the FIP, either. It’s the stuff.
Among starters with at least 50 innings pitched this season, only five have a higher Stuff+ number than Miller’s 120, per FanGraphs. Those five? Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Greene, Gerrit Cole and Graham Ashcraft. That’s it.
The list of names between Miller and the top of the leaderboard in terms of Pitching+, also per FanGraphs, is even shorter. It’s just Strider and Miller’s teammate George Kirby who have a better Pitching+ metric than Miller’s 110 number.
And while Miller’s 110 Pitching+ number is tied with three other starters in Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Pablo Lopez, it only underscores how good the Seattle rookie has been.
If someone in your league thinks Bryce Miller’s fast start was more on the fluke side of things and he’s more of a good-but-not-great fantasy starter, now’s the time to make a trade.
He’s not only better than his ERA would indicate, but he has the long-term potential to be a great fantasy starter moving forward. That’s his ceiling.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio