Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List: Endy Rodriguez, AJ Smith-Shawver (Week 13)

This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.

The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.

The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List

Endy Rodriguez (C – PIT)

A player to watch from March, Rodriguez has enjoyed a solid season for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate so far, batting .248 with a .332 on-base percentage, five home runs, and four stolen bases in 259 plate appearances.

Along with fellow Pirates prospect Henry Davis, Rodriguez is one of the top-catching prospects in the sport.

And while Davis was promoted before Rodriguez, the National League Central club is predominantly utilizing the former in right field this season – that is despite a group of catchers that rank only above the Cleveland Guardians in wRC+ with a collective 49 number so far this season.

That would seem to, at least speculatively speaking, leave the door open to Rodriguez not only being called up at some point this summer but also seeing a potentially significant role upon arrival in the big leagues.

Rodriguez has also played other positions, with experience at both first base and second base, as well as in left field. And while it’s possible that he could see starts across the diamond at times, that versatility – and the positional eligibility that will eventually come with it – should only be a positive for fantasy managers.

In addition to the potential multi-position eligibility, Rodriguez should also provide fantasy value in a few other categories that aren’t always synonymous with catchers – or rather, they’re categories where catchers don’t always thrive from a fantasy standpoint. The two categories in question? Hitting for contact and stealing bases.

The 23-year-old’s current and future hit and speed tool grades are as follows, per FanGraphs:

Hit: 55/60
Speed: 55/55

AJ Smith-Shawver (SP – ATL)

Smith-Shawver was just optioned to Triple-A on Monday morning, so it’s possible the manager in your league who had rostered the Atlanta starter still has the right-hander on their roster.

But if he’s dropped to waivers at any point, he’s an intriguing stash candidate despite the recent move to option him.

In his first 16.2 Major League innings, the 20-year-old pitched to a 4.32 ERA and a 6.63 FIP, adding 15 strikeouts compared to six walks and five home runs allowed.

It was a small sample size, to be sure, but despite the unideal run-prevention metrics, opponents weren’t able to make consistent hard contact. Opposing batters managed just a .280 xwOBA and a .307 xwOBAcon against the right-hander while also registering only a 38.3% hard-hit rate.

And while the right-hander is heading to the minors for now, it would surprise absolutely no one if he returns to Atlanta at some point relatively soon.

Of course, that’s all entirely speculative, but due to injuries and inconsistency, Atlanta has had trouble filling out their rotation behind Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, and Charlie Morton.

Those three have combined for 45 starts, while nine other pitchers – Smith-Shawver included – have combined for 32 starts for the National League East club.

Entering play Monday, manager Brian Snitker’s team held a six-game lead in the division.

If effective, there’s plenty of fantasy potential for starters in Atlanta. Manager Brian Snitker’s team has scored the third-most runs in the league as of the beginning of play on Monday morning. Elsewhere, despite wave upon wave of starters being utilized, the club ranks only behind Tampa Bay, Texas, the Cubs, Houston, and Toronto in rotation pitcher wins with 29.

Smith-Shawver won one of his three starts for Atlanta earlier this month and could be in line for more success if he rejoins the club’s rotation at some point. Though considering how things have gone for the team’s starters this season, it seems more like a matter of “when” and not “if.”

Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week

Corbin Burnes (SP – MIL)

Coming into the 2023 season, Corbin Burnes had rattled off three straight years with an ERA below the 3.00 mark. In those three seasons, his FIP topped the 2.10 mark just once, when it was 3.14 last season – still the 14^th-lowest among all qualified starters in 2022.

With all that in mind, it’s probably safe to say that many of the 28-year-old right-hander’s surface-level metrics are a bit on the surprising side. In fact, they’re markedly different from his past numbers.

Burnes is logging a 4.10 ERA and a 4.32 FIP through 16 starts and 94.1 innings this season. He’s added 89 strikeouts while allowing 33 walks and 13 home runs in the process, good for 8.49 strikeouts, 3.15 walks, and 1.24 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Overall, the veteran is getting fewer swings and misses than usual. His 27.5% whiff rate would be a new career low and down notably from last season’s 35.2% metric.

Still, there aren’t a ton of other warning signs here with Burnes. Many of his underlying metrics are still within a reasonable range compared to where they were last season and before.

The right-hander’s power cutter and sinker are both posting reasonably similar movement and velocity numbers compared to last season. Or, put another way, there hasn’t been a sharp decline in velocity.

Elsewhere, Burnes’ stuff overall hasn’t been quite as good as seasons past, but it’s still well within the ballpark of where the Brewers ace has been the last few seasons. For reference, here’s a blind resume test with the right-hander’s numbers in the last four years:

Season A: 117 Stuff+, 99 Location+, 105 Pitching+
Season B: 133 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 112 Pitching+
Season C: 126 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 109 Pitching+
Season D: 117 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 104 Pitching+

All data via FanGraphs

Season A was Burnes in 59.2 innings during the 2020 campaign.

Season B was last season.

Season C was when Burnes won the 2021 National League Cy Young, the ERA title, and registered a 7.5 fWAR.

Season D is this year.

If anything, the 2023 campaign – so far – is starting to look simply like a slight down stretch for the right-hander, though there’s plenty of bounce-back potential moving forward, both this season and in future seasons for fantasy managers in dynasty leagues.

Despite the decrease in stuff, Burnes’ 117 Stuff+ so far is still the fourth-best among all qualified starters. His 104 Pitching+ is tied for sixth among the same group.

And while Burnes has had some troubles with home runs this year – he’s allowed 13 in 94.1 innings so far and is on track for a career-worst in terms of home runs per nine innings rate, four of those did come in one outing against the Houston Astros on May 22.

The right-hander was also given up a home run in four of his last five starts, but that should actually help fantasy managers trying to acquire him in dynasty leagues.

Burnes is very much an acquisition for the long-term, one with significant upside and a more than proven track record. The first half of the 2023 season may just be a blip on the radar for the former Cy Young winner.

MLB Waiver Wire MLB Endy Rodriguez (C – PIT) Henry Davis AJ Smith-Shawver (SP – ATL) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder Charlie Morton Corbin Burnes (SP – MIL)