Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Spencer Strider (SP, RP – ATL)
Strider is sporting a 4.12 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, which is not what you expected from a guy that you thought would be your ace. However, he has been pretty unlucky in the strand rate and BABIP departments and has a 3.24 xERA. You are getting a boatload of strikeouts, and the rest will come. If you can get him for cheaper than an ace price, I would.
Spencer Torkelson (1B – DET)
Torkelson has struggled again in the Majors, but he is starting to turn it around, and he has really interesting underlying numbers with his average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and max exit velocity in the top 15% of the league. As it continues to warm up in the Midwest, I expect him to keep warming up, which means now is the last time to buy low on him.
Christian Yelich (OF – MIL)
Yelich is having a fine season, hitting .272/.366/.441 with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases. So how is this a buy-low? Well, he is actually getting quite unlucky. His exit velocity, xBA, xwOBA, and hard-hit percentage are all in the top 10% of the league, and he leads off more days than not. Yelich gets overlooked because he is not the top 3 player he once was, but he is still extremely valuable and quietly having the best season he has had in years.
Sell High
Charlie Morton (SP – ATL)
Outside of the bad WHIP, there isn’t much in Morton’s surface stats that scream run away. However, looking under the hood and that is a different question. His velocity is down, and so are the strikeouts. He has his highest walk rate since 2016 and highest zone contact since 2015 if you don’t include 2020. The only pitch of his that is still good is his curve which he has used more and more, but at some point hitters will spit on it, and there will be massive regression.
Jordan Hicks (SP, RP – STL)
Hicks has taken hold on the Cardinals’ closer job after Ryan Helsley went on the IL and Giovanny Gallegos blew a save attempt. Hicks has the stuff to be a top-tier closer, but he has a long track record of injuries and inconsistency. I worry that any struggles and the Cardinals will go back to Gallegos or someone else. Not to mention that once Helsley comes back, he would get the job back.
Luis Arraez (1B, 2B – MIA)
Arraez is hitting .400/.450/.490 with two home runs and a stolen base this season and is just having an unreal season. While I love watching him do what he is doing, I worry about what happens when he inevitably comes back down to earth. He is hitting at least 60 points over his head, and when that average comes down, you are left with a hitter with no power or speed on a bad lineup in Miami. I would take what I could get for him.
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