Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are super early into the season, we see hot and cold streaks as more important than they are. The numbers we use to gauge players aren’t a large enough sample to be meaningful yet. A three or four-game hot streak wouldn’t even be noticeable in the middle of the season, but since we have so little to work off of right now, it gets overblown. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Below are some players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball.
Buy Low
Mountcastle has struggled this season, hitting .227/.264/.421 with 11 home runs and two stolen bases. While the power has been there, the average hasn’t. However, he has gotten unlucky on balls in play and his xAVG is .264 and his xSLG is .529. He is making league average contact and hitting the ball hard, so I expect him to turn it around.
Tucker hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination, hitting .268/.345/.429 with eight home runs and 10 stolen bases. However, his xBA is .287 and his xSLG is .502 and his hard hit percentage is about 50% since the beginning of May. With Yordan Alvarez out for a while, he should hit cleanup in the Houston lineup. If you can get him for anything cheaper than draft day value, I would pay it.
Gilbert has struggled recently but he has also gotten really unlucky in balls in play on those outings. He sits at a 4.38 ERA on the season, but he has a 2.98 xERA and he is posting a career best walk rate. I am not worried about him in the slightest and would love the chance to buy low.
Wheeler has been ok this season, but the underlying skills say he is an ace that has gotten unlucky. He has a high BABIP and his strand rate has been extremely low. His xERA is 3.25 and his FIP is 2.75. If you can get him for anything cheaper than an ace price, I would.
Sell High
Cruz burst into the Major Leagues, hitting .364/.481/.636 with a home run and three stolen bases in his first six games. So, why would I sell the top tier prospect? I don’t know if his value will ever be higher. He has struggled with 30% strikeout rates all throughout the minors and has a 37% strikeout rate in this hot start in the Majors. With the plethora of talent that the Reds have in the minors and the Majors, he needs to hit to stay up and while I think he will be really good, there is a chance the lack of contact sends him back down at some point.
Thairo Estrada (2B,SS,OF – SF)
Estrada has been really good this season, hitting .297/.345/.498 with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in 235 plate appearances. However, he has been extremely lucky on balls in play with a .364 BABIP when he has a career .304 BABIP. His hard hit rate is just 34.4% and his barrel rate is 6.7%. His xBA is .249 and xSLG is .391. There is some massive regression coming.
Gray has pitched very well so far, throwing 73.2 innings with a 2.32 ERA and a .96 WHIP this year. However, he has gotten lucky with a .226 BABIP when his career BABIP is .306 and his strand rate is 18% higher than his career. He is also not striking out a ton of batters with his strikeout rate dropping from 25.7% to 22.3% this year. While I don’t necessarily think he will be bad, I think there is a lot of regression coming down the road.
I do not think you should sell Perez because he will regress or that he is a bad pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. However, reports are that once Trevor Rogers is ready, they will send down Perez to the minors to monitor his innings. That being said, he has been lucky in the BABIP and strand rate departments, so there will be natural regression at some point, but I am more worried about him losing his job so I would move him quickly.
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