In the first five days of streaming last week, we got two wins. Thank you, Kyle Gibson and Jared Shuster. We will take Gibson for another tour through Milwaukee and then back home to face Kansas City this week. That’s right. The Baltimore hurler is our two-start pitcher in Week 10. Not only do I hope to offer a two-start pitcher every week, if possible. I also like to suggest a pitcher that might be worth claiming and holding long-term. That name is still Tanner Bibee. Again, I have to believe the only reason he’s not owned in more leagues is because of the team, but the Guardians are starting to score more, which you can read about in my Wednesday blurb below.
This column is for the manager who needs innings in season-long roto formats, the person in an H2H league who needs to churn through as many starting pitchers as possible, or even the gamer who wants to compare some of the information about a pitcher to other sources. Good synthesis can lead to better results. To serve you best, I always try to identify the most available option in Yahoo leagues. If it’s a bad day to stream, I will tell you. But I will always choose someone.
It is hard to believe that we’re already stepping into the second week of June, but here we go.
Waiver Wire SP Streamers: Week 10
Monday, June 5
Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. KC | 15%
I was considering Johan Oviedo against Oakland here, but I’m not so sure. The big difference between these two pitchers, and the reason I landed on Garrett, is the WHIP. In the last two weeks, Garrett owns a 0.84 WHIP and Oviedo has a 1.31 WHIP.
Oviedo didn’t make it through five innings in his last outing, but Garrett’s last four outings have been decent (only three runs total in that stretch). So we might be witnessing a pitcher who has found his groove. The 25-year-old former first-round pick has a 4.22 ERA with a 3.99 FIP.
In the last month, Garrett has a 2.67 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and 32 Ks in 27 innings. His CSW is 32.3%, which is the highest mark of his career. The cutter is new, and it plays, garnering a 34.4% CSW. It seems to be making some of his other pitches even more effective. Consider his changeup, which he only uses around 10% of the time. Last year, it had a 19.9% CSW, and this year it has a 36.1% CSW. He’s throwing it in the zone more for swinging strikes. Let’s send him out against a weaker offense.
Tuesday, June 6
Kyle Gibson (BAL) at MIL | 44%
It’s not the best day to stream due to the available options in many leagues. However, it is possible to go with one of the top streaming arms for the first half of the season in Gibson.
Gibson got us a win last week as he nearly escaped with a quality start. We’ll take it. He’s facing the Brewers, who are 29th in runs scored over the past two weeks. In fact, they’re tied with Kansas City for 25th in runs scored on the season.
What more can I say about the 35-year-old Gibson? He looks to be repeating his solid 2021 season, but one key difference in his profile is that he’s throwing the sinker and the changeup in the zone more. Similar to Drew Smyly, this is someone who has decided that they’re not going to strike everyone out. Instead, he’s a contact guy that gets hitters to ground out 46.9% of the time and avoids the long ball with his 0.75 HR/9.
Wednesday, June 7
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. BOS | 53%
Boston hasn’t been scoring as many runs lately, and Bibee’s lackluster start against the Twins on June 1st means that he’s still available in many of our leagues. If 47% of Yahoo managers continue to leave him on the waiver wire, it’ll make one day a week easy to stream.
One concern I have is that Bibee sometimes relies on the fastball too much. It makes sense. He’s a rookie, it’s his primary pitch, and he’s comfortable throwing it. For the entire season, he has thrown the FB 48% and the slider (his solid secondary) 29% of the time. When he struggled against Minnesota last time, he used the slider 22.9% of the time, and when he dominated St. Louis, he used it 32.7% of the time. I hope that he finds a way to balance the pitch selection more.
Bibee shows strong command and a compelling presence for a rookie pitcher, so the longer he’s in the big leagues, the likelier he’ll adapt. He has now played some of the toughest lineups in baseball, and he owns a 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 40 K’s in 39 innings. Sadly, he only has one win in that time period. That’s because Cleveland is 28th in runs scored on the season. But they are starting to show some signs of life. They’re 19th in runs scored over the last two weeks, and in the last seven days, they’re tied with Houston for 2nd place.
Thursday, June 8
Kyle Bradish (BAL) at MIL | 17%
If we remove his start against the Yankees on May 23rd, Bradish has only given up three runs combined in his three other starts since May 12, which came against the Pirates, Angels, and Rangers. As I said in the Tuesday blurb, Milwaukee is struggling to score runs right now, and Baltimore doesn’t have that problem.
With his 3.89 ERA, Bradish’s best days require his fastball to sit closer to 95 mph. Even a few ticks lower, he seems to run into more trouble. His worst start against Boston saw his FB sitting at 93 mph and his SL at 86 mph.
One of Bradish’s best starts against the Pirates saw his FB close to 95 mph and his SL near 88 mph. He got 12 whiffs on those two pitches combined but only two whiffs on those two pitches against the Yankees. Those two pitches require a delicate balance for him, so I will admit that we are playing with fire here. Hopefully, we get the good FB-SL tandem from Bradish today.
Friday, June 9
Ben Lively (CIN) at STL | 27%
Okay, so I’m taking a chance. You could go with the less available option below, but we should draw some attention to what Lively is doing, even if there is some good luck baked into his stats. The Reds are 3rd in runs-scored over the past two weeks, and if you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that the Cardinals are 26th in runs-scored in that same time period.
That might not mean much, but the 31-year-old Lively does have a 1.99 ERA in 22.2 IP. Yes, it comes with a 2.89 xERA and 3.31 xFIP. He has a whopping 95.2% LOB%, so that 1.99 ERA is not sustainable. Still, there are some real positives here. His walk rate is the lowest of his career, at 1.99 BB/9. This is coupled with a 9.53 K/9.
It’s the slider! Lively’s slider is returning a 39.6% CSW with a 50% GB% and a minuscule .043 average for hitters. While he only throws his primary fastball at 90-91 mph, the difference in speed on the slider (around 80 mph) is enough to make both pitches effective.
I, for one, would like to see if Lively can maintain an SP3 level, but it may simply take time for hitters to adjust. Lively’s arsenal hasn’t been seen as much because he spent several years in the KBO League and the entire 2022 season in Triple-A. But I’m rooting for him.
Other option: Eury Perez (MIA) at CHW | 65%
Saturday, June 10
Bobby Miller (LAD) at PHI | 62%
So far, so good for the young Miller. In his first 11 innings, he’s managed a 1.64 ERA (2.19 FIP) against Washington and Atlanta. He throws a sinker at 98.7 mph; he throws it in the zone more than half the time for a devastating 58.3% GB%, and he seems to have enough command to drop it out of the zone for a 31.8% O-swing%. When you add his changeup to it, this arsenal is the definition of worm-killing expertise. That’s because he has a 60% GB% on the off-speed pitch too. The xAVG on the sinker is .151, and the xAVG on the changeup is .023.
The apt comparison here is probably someone like Logan Webb, but it’s clear that Miller may have the better sinker in the long run, as the xAVG on Webb’s sinker is much higher (.302). But we’re looking at a smaller sample size for Miller, so let’s hold our breath and watch.
Other option (less available): Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. KC | 72%
Sunday, June 11
Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs. KC | 44%
Hello again, Mr. Gibson. Everything from Tuesday applies here of course, except I’m glad that the O’s are home in this one. It’ll make it that much harder for the opposition to score runs, hopefully.
Camden Yards is 20th in home runs in 2023, and over the course of the 2022 season, their field was 26th in home runs, according to Statcast. The park plays bigger for right-handed hitters, and while the Royals have their fair share of lefties, some of them include names like Nick Pratto and Michael Massey.
I realize that it’s baseball, and anything can happen, but Gibson seems like one of the safer bets on the last day of the week.
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