Can you believe that we’ll be near the end of June after this week? Time flies when you’re claiming pitchers off the waiver wire. The secret streamer code at this point of the 2023 season is Boston, where I’m streaming three pitchers: Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello, and James Paxton. I don’t have a two-start pitching situation that I’m comfortable with based on our availability criteria (around 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues). But I will suggest two claim-and-hold arms: James Paxton (again) and Tarik Skubal. If these two guys remain healthy and continue to reach their full potential, they might be a huge boost to your rotation.
Remember that I stream every single day no matter what, but I will tell you if it’s a tough day to stream so you can decide to take a breather.
I use the excellent FantasyPros weekly scheduler for probable starters, where you can double-check the probable starters listed here as we get closer to the date.
Good luck this week!
Monday, June 19
Josiah Gray (WAS) vs. STL: 41%
If you don’t already own one of the top arms, there aren’t many good available options today. It comes down to two hurlers in my mind, Andrew Heaney against the White Sox or Josiah Gray against the Cardinals. I’m going with Gray instead of Heaney for several reasons.
First, he’s available in more leagues. Second, he manages to go 5+ innings more often (Heaney has failed to make it through four innings in three of his last four starts). Third, Gray’s WHIP in the past two weeks is 1.15 (Heaney’s is 2.14). It’s possible Gray is turning into a more old-school pitcher, where his unspoken mantra is simple: I want to strike you out, but at the very least, you’re going to hit my pitch poorly. Take a look at his weak contact percentage in the past several starts: 6.7%, 8.3%, 0%, 0%, 14.3%. Those two zeroes and then the huge jump indicate that he is tinkering a little, don’t you think? Now in a similar time frame, look at the batted ball numbers for hitting under the ball: 8.3%, 17.6%, 18.2%, 38.1%. He’s pairing the slider with the sinker more in his last two starts, and while the WHIP is decreasing, it’s concerning because some of the home runs that plagued him last year are returning. That means this is a tough day to stream, after all. The St. Louis offense relies on home runs, and that means we have to hope that Gray will focus on suppressing the long ball more than striking out everyone, as he’s been doing for most of the season.
Other option: Andrew Heaney (TEX) at CWS: 62%
Tuesday, June 20
Garrett Whitlock (BOS) at MIN: 33%
Minnesota is 29th in runs scored in the last two weeks, and Whitlock has owned the Rockies and the Yankees since returning from the IL. Whitlock has a 4.38 ERA and a 3.74 xFIP to go along with a 31.9% CSW (which exactly matches his CSW from 2022 when he had a 3.45 ERA and a 3.24 xFIP). He’s getting a few more groundballs than last year. So far, he’s throwing his changeup and slider more often and getting more swings out of the zone, which means Whitlock is either improving his pitch mix or, at the very least, he should return to the surface stats from last year, giving us something closer to his 3.45 ERA. I’m willing to send him out against the Twins here.
Other option: MacKenzie Gore (WAS) vs. STL: 48%
Wednesday, June 21
Domingo German (NYY) vs. SEA 60%
German struggled in his previous outing against Seattle on May 29, but starting pitchers often perform better in a rematch. He did excellent work against the Red Sox and Dodgers in his previous two outings, which gives me some hope that we can ride the hot hand here. Seattle is also 21st in runs scored in the last two weeks. German’s curveball is really getting hitters to swing out of the zone, increasing from a 36.7% O-Sw% last season to a 47.1% O-Sw% this season. More than this, the xAVG (.173) and the CSW (37.8%) are similar to last year, perhaps even slightly improved. The fastball is a problem, and so far this year, it is yielding a .343 xAVG and a 56.5% FB%. It might be better if he replaced that pitch with his sinker, which he only throws 12% of the time, but with significantly better results (76% GB% and a .071 AVG).
Thursday, June 22
Brayan Bello (BOS) at MIN 29%
Bello seems more confident about his sinker this season. He is inducing more contact by throwing it in the zone, and it’s working because the contact is weak, or hitters are simply hitting groundballs. Not only is he throwing the sinker in the zone more effectively. He’s also throwing the rest of his arsenal (slider, changeup, and fastball) in the zone. His ERA is 3.78, and xFIP is 3.99 this season in 52.1 IP. In the last month, he owns a 2.79 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. That 4.24 BB/9 is now down to a 2.92 BB/9, which is closer to his 2022 Double-A numbers. He had a 1.69 ERA at that level, which would be wonderful to see at the highest level.
Friday, June 23
James Paxton (BOS) at CWS 58%
I’m buying Paxton right now, wherever he is still available. In the last month, he owns a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, with 35 strikeouts in 27 IP. The underlying stats agree with the surface production as well, with a 3.57 xERA, a 3.09 FIP, and a 3.18 xFIP. In arguably his best season (2017), he owned a 2.98 ERA with a 10.32 K/9 and a 2.45 BB/9. Right now, he has a 12.38 K/9 and a 2.81 BB/9. The velocity on the 34-year-old’s fastball is actually up a tick from that season (96.1 mph versus 95.8). His SIERA of 3.13 is lower than the 2017 SIERA of 3.45. I know that we’re only crossing the 30 IP threshold, but buy now and see where it takes you.
Saturday, June 24
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. MIL 46%
I know, I know. You might be saying, please not Bibee again. But the reality is that there aren’t that many available options today, and Bibee hasn’t been that bad overall, even though he struggled in his last outing. This might simply make him a normal streaming option. The Brewers haven’t been lighting the offensive world on fire this year, as they sit 25th in runs scored. Cleveland is right there with them, but they have improved in the last two weeks.
Bibee still has a 3.82 FIP to go along with his 3.91 ERA, which is perfectly stream-worthy. I would like to point out that in 73.2 IP in Double-A last year, Bibee had a 9.90 K/9 and 1.71 BB/9. This year at the highest level, he has an 8.38 K/9 and a 2.61 BB/9. One thing that interests me is where we find a pitcher’s strengths transferring across levels. His walk rate was higher in his brief Triple-A experience (4.70 BB/9), and he’s still learning how to pitch against some of the best hitters in the game. Bibee can eventually find a way to get his arsenal to work in the same way as it did in Double-A. He had a 1.83 ERA (2.61 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) at that level. Look at that spread! Even if we take the weakest number, which is really close to his current 3.82 FIP, then we can cross our fingers that he’s a pitcher to hold and hope for more.
Sunday, June 25
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. MIN 20%
As of this writing, CBS has Skubal listed as the probable starter for Sunday, where he will hopefully remain fully recovered from his flexor tendon surgery from last year. I’ve added him here for streaming purposes, but he’s worth a claim and hold for Week 12. Remember that Skubal had a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 117.2 IP in 2022. That ERA in 2022 came with a glowing 2.96 FIP. His previous start in Triple-A Toledo showed his fastball hovered around 96 mph (it averaged 94 mph last year). He threw 31 pitches and struck out five hitters in three scoreless innings. Skubal should have one more outing, and of course, we might be concerned that he won’t make it through five innings, but it’s also possible that he does, and you’ll miss your chance to scoop him up.
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