Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through June 19, 2023.
Players Due for Positive Regression
Tommy Edman (2B, SS, OF – STL)
Tommy Edman has already begun to show signs of picking things up on the offensive side. The versatile switch-hitter went 2-for-2 with a triple, a single, one RBI and three runs scored Monday afternoon. Over his previous 20 games, however, he simply could not catch a break. In that span, Edman limped to a .132/.234/.235 slash line with only five RBI, four of which came on one big swing of the bat last week.
Underneath the poor surface numbers of late, there has been evidence to suggest Edman would get back on track. Start with the 44.6 HardHit% and 90.9 avg EV he recorded over those 20 games combined with a 94.4 Z-Contact% and 86.8 Contact%. Those percentages somehow resulted in a dreadful .145 BABIP.
Edman’s .259 xBA indicates where he should have been the past few weeks and has been over his career. He was still able to swipe five bags and score eight runs during those 20 games despite a .234 OBP. If his AVG and OBP course correct as they should, Edman will, in all likelihood, return to the 30-steal, 90-run type of player he’s been over the past two seasons.
Pablo Lopez took a loss on Monday night against the Red Sox after allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits, three walks and a bean ball. He did strike out nine batters for the second straight start, but his elevated ratios of late persist, nonetheless.
Lopez has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last seven starts and four or more in four of them. That led to a 5.53 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP during that stretch. However, his 3.59 xFIP indicates that his results should have been much better.
The strikeouts have already been mentioned, but to expand it further, Lopez has produced a strong 27.6 K% and 14.2 SwStr%. That’s played out to a 48-to-12 K/BB ratio across 40 2/3 innings in these seven outings. All signs point to improvement.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Geraldo Perdomo (2B, 3B, SS – ARI)
Geraldo Perdomo is enjoying a breakout campaign here in his second full MLB season. His work at the plate so far in June has his AVG at .300 and his OBP north of .400 for the year. This month, the young infielder has produced an impressive .340/.467/.447 slash line with five doubles, six RBI, seven runs and a couple of steals.
Perdomo has actually walked more than he’s struck out over his 15 games this month, putting up a 10-to-11 K/BB ratio. He has certainly been a big part of the Diamondbacks’ success, but it seems highly unlikely he keeps this up given his league-low 81.8 EV and 15.8 HardHit% in June. Perdomo has managed a ridiculous .421 BABIP despite a mere 15.8 LD% and 28.9 GB% this month.
There could be significant regression to come soon. You know, the falling-off-a-cliff kind.
Jared Shuster has been a rotation stabilizer for a beat-up Braves pitching staff over the last several weeks. The rookie Southpaw has made six starts since being recalled back in mid-May, working at least five frames while giving up three runs or less in each outing. Overall, he has pitched to a nice 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .198 AVG.
While he certainly deserves credit for his progression, Shuster’s recent results, at least partly, have been due to favorable competition and plain good luck (5.74 xFIP, .219 BABIP). He has faced the Athletics, Nationals and Rockies – three of the bottom-12 scoring lineups – respectively over his last three starts. He’s managed a grand total of just three strikeouts while posting a 1.44 WHIP. Shuster has promise, but he will take his lumps, likely sometime soon.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a nine-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.