Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to view each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through June 26, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC)
Suzuki’s second season in the States got started a couple of weeks late due to injury. He hit the ground running once he was activated off the IL on April 14. From then until the end of May, the former NPB superstar produced a .872 OPS with six homers and nine doubles in 42 games. It appeared that a major breakout could be in the works.
Since the calendar has flipped to June, however, Suzuki has had simply no luck at all. He has slashed an ugly .184/.247/.237 with no long balls despite a 50.9 HardHit% and 93.1 mph EV across 85 plate appearances this month. Yes, Suzuki’s line-drive rate has been a little on the low side (17.5%), while his groundball rate is a bit elevated (50.9%). Still, his BABIP should not be down below .250, especially considering his career mark is .326.
Statcast has registered a .264 xBA for Suzuki this month. That’s 80 points higher than his actual AVG. He should be able to reach even higher than that going forward if his batted-ball profile sustains. Look for a course correction that features pretty good power numbers soon.
Patrick Sandoval (SP – LAA)
Like Suzuki, Sandoval has had more than his share of poor luck so far in June. The 26-year-old Southpaw entered the month sporting a nice 3.42 ERA through 10 starts. His ERA has ballooned to 6.20, as he’s been roughed up in three of his four starts so far this month. That mark even factors in his seven scoreless frames in Kansas City on June 16.
A quick look at Sandoval’s .448 BABIP begins to tell the story of his recent shakiness on the mound. That has led to the opposition hitting .356 against him despite an 87.3 EV and 46.4 GB%. Sandoval has actually increased his strikeout rate from 15.1% in April and May to 21.2% here in June. He has subsequently improved his walk rate from 9.2% to 8.1%. Improvement is coming, as his 3.86 xFIP during this stretch suggests.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Royce Lewis (3B, SS – MIN)
Lewis has enjoyed a heck of a month with the bat since being called up from the minors almost a month ago. A year removed from an ACL tear, the first overall selection of the 2017 draft was obviously ready to stake his claim as a big part of the Twins’ lineup. In 22 MLB games so far this year, he has put up a .333/.357/.506 slash line with four homers, 14 RBI, and 11 runs scored.
Lewis is certainly a talented young hitter, but his results to this point will not come close to sustaining if the underlying measures do not drastically improve. His elevated AVG and SLG are currently covering up an xBA of .255 and xSLG of .400. On top of that, Lewis has been able to produce a ridiculous .418 BABIP with a weak 86.8 EV and 23.7 LD%. The line-drive rate is pretty good but nowhere near what’s needed for an elite AVG. Finally, Lewis’ 26.2 K% compared to a 3.6 BB% is going to stifle his production as well eventually.
Andrew Abbott (SP – CIN)
Continuing to pick on the rookies here this week, Abbott is going to eventually come back down to Earth following an outstanding start to his big-league career. In fact, it may have already begun in his last outing.
First, however, give Abbott all the credit he deserves for firing 17 2/3 scoreless frames across his first three MLB starts. Still, even in that run, he allowed a 46.0 HardHit% along with a 12.7 BB% and only a 16.9 K%. The young lefty somehow managed to avoid allowing a single home run in spite of a 49.0 FB% in those three games. He pitches his home games in Great American “Small” Park folks. That was never going to continue.
In Cincy last Wednesday, Abbott surrendered three homers to the Rockies. Fortunately for the Reds, he only gave up four hits in six innings, and all three deep drives were of the solo variety. The Rockies do not feature a great batting order. Better ones will come for Abbott. His high contact, walk, and hard-hit rates, combined with an inability to induce ground balls, will not likely serve him too well. At the moment, Abbott’s 4.83 xFIP is much more indicative of where he is as a pitcher than his 1.14 ERA.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.