Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through June 6, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Devers is currently stuck in an ugly 9-for-54 skid that includes zero homers and three doubles over his last 14 games. Take things all the way back a full month, and the picture isn’t much better. In 100 plate appearances since May 7, the two-time All-Star has delivered a .220/.280/.352 slash line with two home runs.
To say Devers has been unlucky in this stretch would be quite an understatement. Over the last month, he ranks 14th in the league with a 55.1 HardHit%. On top of that, he has recorded a 22.1 LD% and 10.1 Barrel%. Devers is due for a serious uptick on both his .269 BABIP and 7.7% HR/FB from this dry spell, as his career marks are .315 and 18.2% respectively.
Ohtani gave up five earned runs last time out and has now done so in three of his last seven starts. In fact, during that span, he has turned in a 5.02 ERA across 43 innings pitched. The long ball has plagued Ohtani in this rough patch, as he’s surrendered 10 of them (2.09 HR/9). Seven of those have come in just 18 innings on the road. Inconceivable!
A 32.3% HR/FB is simply ridiculous. It won’t stand. Ohtani’s career mark is 12.4%, and the rest of his pitching metrics in this seven-start stretch suggest he should be performing at his typical ace level. Included in those marks are a 32.4 K%, 53.5 GB%, 83.7 mph EV, and a .219 AVG against. Ohtani’s 3.05 xFIP is more indicative of how he has actually been performing.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Orlando Arcia (2B,SS,OF – ATL)
Arcia kept his strong season going for the Braves with a couple of base knocks and a big RBI in a come-from-behind win over the Mets. The 28 year old is now 7-for-20 over his last five games and sporting a .311 AVG alongside an .824 OPS for the campaign. Those numbers are nice, but some negative trends began a few weeks ago.
So far, at least in the batting-average department, Arcia has been able to outperform the metrics going back to mid-May. Despite not one extra-base hit over his last 17 games, he has managed a .271 AVG. That’s not going to last if his batted-ball profile during the stretch doesn’t significantly change. In 64 plate appearances during that span, Arcia has produced a glaring 63.8 GB%, a mere 10.6 LD%, and an average EV of only 85.8 mph. That combination has resulted in an xBA of just .200.
Anderson is not an ace. He’s pretending to be one right now, but no one should expect it to hold up, especially while pitching his home games at Coors Field. Through four outings since joining the Rockies’ rotation, the 35-year-old veteran has put up a 2.08 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 21 2/3 innings.
Even though he has recorded just 10 total strikeouts (12.0 K%) over his four starts, Anderson has managed to hold the opposition to a .224 AVG thanks to a .222 BABIP. Chalk that up mostly to good fortune, as his 34.8 HardHit%, 88.6 mph EV, and 26.2 LD% support a .291 xBA. Anderson has been able to strand an amazing 96.5% of base runners so far this season. As his 5.24 xFIP demands, that is not going to hold up.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.