Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ model made its debut on Fangraphs this season, so for today’s column, we will look at some leaders in Stuff+.
Pitching+, Stuff+, and Location+ were developed by Sarris and others to further narrow down a pitcher’s true performance. Stuff+ factors in velocity, movement, and spin. Location+ factors in intention and count. Pitching+ is the overall model that factors in elements of Stuff+ and Location+, while also considering batter handedness.
Using all of these is very important because they are predictive. Pitching+ usually stabilizes 400 pitches in for starting pitchers and 250 pitches in for relief pitchers.
In all, these metrics tell us if pitchers are throwing pitches with good shapes and movement, while also locating them properly. Let’s look at some of the best at doing so this season.
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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers
Spencer Strider (SP – ATL) | 128 Stuff+, 106 Location+, 115 Pitching+
Among 65 qualified starting pitchers, 14 are top-10 (including ties) in Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. Those starting pitchers are Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Shane McClanahan, Yu Darvish, Zach Wheeler, Sandy Alcantara, Clayton Kershaw, Joe Ryan, Hunter Brown, Zac Gallen, Mitch Keller, and Freddy Peralta. Strider has the best Stuff+ and Pitching+ in baseball, and ties Aaron Nola for fourth in Location+.
It is no surprise then to see Strider leads baseball in K/9 and strikeouts; his stuff is absolutely incredible. He features his fastball and slider heavily, while also tossing a filthy changeup.
Strider’s fastball has a .223 batting average against, a 29.8% whiff rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Part of the reason it is so difficult for batters to hit is because of the ball’s movement. His fastball has a ton of vertical rise, moving 2.8 inches more than an average four-seamer, 22% above the average.
Strider’s slider and changeup both have sub-.200 batting averages against. His slider has a 56.8% whiff rate and a 30% putaway rate, while his changeup has a 50% whiff rate and a 28% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown sliders in a minimum of 50 PAs, Strider has the highest whiff rate on the pitch and the ninth-highest putaway rate.
At the moment, Strider’s ERA does not match his Stuff/Pitching/Location+ success. This is arguably due to a combination of higher-than-normal BABIP and HR/FB%, as well as a worse strand rate than last season. What helps the argument for using Pitching+ as a predictive model is that a 2.83 xFIP and 2.66 SIERA both reflect that he should be doing better.
Hunter Brown (SP – HOU) | 107 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 103 Pitching+
Hunter Brown falls more in the middle of all three categories within the 14 aforementioned pitchers, but he is still among the best in the game. This is especially impressive considering he has just 95.2 IP at the major league level.
Among qualified starting pitchers, Brown is also one of the ten who have surpassed the league average in K/9, BB/9, LOB%, and GB%. Of those ten, he is one of five that has a better xFIP (3.17) than his actual ERA (3.35).
Brown clearly has a lot of things going for him this season. He features a fastball, slider, curveball, and splitter combination, mostly leaning on all but the splitter.
His splitter, though, has performed extremely well, albeit in a very small sample size. It has a .182 batting average against, a 50% whiff rate, and a 37.5% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in a minimum of 10 PAs, Brown’s has the sixth-highest whiff rate and second-highest putaway rate.
Aside from his splitter, his curveball is arguably his next best pitch and he throws it 28% of the time, so it has a much larger sample size. It has a .220 batting average against, a 30.4% whiff rate, and a 23.1% putaway rate.
Like Strider, Brown’s xFIP illustrates that his Pitching+ data implies he can be even better than he already has been this season.
Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL) | 106 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 105 Pitching+
Among the 14 aforementioned pitchers, Freddy Peralta is last in Stuff+ and Location+, and second to last in Pitching+. Despite that, he still remains among the best in the league at all three.
His Pitching+ numbers have not translated to great success on the diamond, unfortunately for Peralta and his fantasy managers. He has a 4.73 ERA but many signs, including his Pitching+ data, suggest things should turn around for Peralta.
Peralta’s BABIP is 20 points higher than his career BABIP. He also has an inflated 1.66 HR/9 rate (compared to 1.08 for his career) and a 16.9% HR/FB rate. His 39.7% GB rate is close to what he did last season in 78 IP and is nearly 5% higher than his career rate. Peralta also has a better BB/9 rate than his career average. Those elements alone confirm why his xFIP and SIERA are both 4.16.
Peralta leans heavily on his fastball, but also features a slider, curveball, and changeup. His fastball has the sixth-highest Stuff+ and fifth-highest Pitching+ among qualified pitchers that feature a fastball. His best pitch, however, might be his slider, which has a 46.2% whiff rate and a 26.6% putaway rate. Those rank ninth and 20th, respectively, among pitchers who have thrown a slider in at least 50 PAs.
Trust the model and believe Peralta can improve during the rest of the season.
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