Currently, 103 qualified batters have a higher expected weighted on-base average or xwOBA than their actual wOBA.

According to MLB.com, wOBA “accounts for how a player reached base,” determining value from “how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored.” (For example, a double is worth more than a single).

The statistic xwOBA uses Statcast metrics like exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed to measure a batter’s expected outcome rather than the actual outcome. Essentially, it takes defense out of the equation and focuses more on the quality of contact instead.

For fantasy purposes, fantasy managers can think of wOBA as sort of a catch-all offensive stat to help establish a hitter’s offensive skill. Factoring in xwOBA to research can help fantasy managers determine which players are underperforming or overperforming and can influence whether to drop or add, or buy or sell players.

Below are three of the 103 players who have a higher xwOBA than wOBA, meaning they have likely underperformed this season.

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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers

Keibert Ruiz (C – WAS): .300 wOBA / .363 xwOBA

In Keibert Ruiz’s case, his issue seems to be BABIP related. He has a .226 BABIP and a .235 AVG despite a 20% LD rate and a 41.4% pull rate, both only slightly lower than last season when he had a .271 BABIP and a .251 AVG. His career BABIP is .256.

Ruiz has done many things well, leading to eight home runs (a career-high), 19 runs, and 27 RBI in 242 plate appearances.

Keibert Ruiz and the Nats break through in the ninth! pic.twitter.com/BQzzsIjyUI

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 16, 2023

His strikeout rate is 7.9%, good for second in baseball behind Luis Arraez, and is the best of his career. Ruiz has also posted the best barrel and HardHit rates of his career at 9.9% and 38.4%, respectively. He also has the highest exit velocity of his career at 88.8 MPH with the second highest maxEV of his career at 109.2 MPH. His ISO score of .149 is also the highest it has been in the last two seasons. Those things should equate to a higher wOBA and explain why his xwOBA is significantly higher.

Ruiz makes a lot of contact, 87.4% of the time, in fact, and he has been making some of the best contact of his career in terms of quality. If he hits into a bit of better luck, his wOBA could start inching closer to his xwOBA.

An improvement to his AVG is no guarantee, but fantasy managers should expect better out of Ruiz over the rest of the season.

Ryan Mountcastle (1B – BAL): .292 wOBA / .351 xwOBA

Ryan Mountcastle had a similar discrepancy with his wOBA and xwOBA last season, with the largest gap between them among all qualified hitters. This may be largely due to Mountcastle hitting significantly better at home than away. Despite that, Mountcastle clearly should be performing better than his current stats reflect.

Mountcastle’s 11 homers, 34 runs, 39 RBI, and two steals look solid, but he has an ugly .227 AVG. That is despite making improvements in many areas that should result in a higher, or at least similar, batting average than last season’s .250.

Mountcastle improved his strikeout rate, ISO, and contact rates from last season. He has added MPH to his EV and maxEV from last year while also increasing his barrel rate to 15.3% – a career-best. His 44.8% HardHit rate is a percent lower than last season. As a player with a .303 BABIP last season and a .302 career BABIP, his .256 BABIP so far this season does not line up.

Mountcastle’s line drive rate and pull rate have ticked down from last season, which could be a factor in lowering his BABIP, but much of the other improvements should balance out those issues.

At the very least, Mountcastle should be played in fantasy when he plays at home (and he has more home games left than away games). But he should improve over the rest of the season, especially if he increases his line drive and pull rates.

Bobby Witt Jr. (3B/SS – KC): .309 wOBA / .367 xwOBA

Similar to Ruiz and Mountcastle, Bobby Witt has made great jumps this season in areas that should correspond to improved offensive production.

Bobby Witt Jr. GOES 442 FEET! pic.twitter.com/NcKUe5FsyV

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 19, 2023

While he is on pace to outproduce his 2022 home runs, runs, and steals, he has disappointed in terms of his batting average. It sits at .246 compared to last season’s .256. Again, it seems to be a BABIP issue on the surface, as he has a .274 season BABIP vs. a .295 BABIP from last season and a .288 career BABIP.

Witt has improved his walk, strikeout, and chase rates, with his overall contact rate taking a one percent dip from last season. He improved his ISO from last year, as well as his barrel rate and HardHit rate, which are an impressive 12.1% and 44.6%, respectively.

In terms of quality of contact, he is among the best in the league. His 113.8 MPH maxEV is 25th best among all qualified hitters, and his 90.7 average EV is faster than last season. Plus, his line drive and pull rates are higher than last season.

Many of these factors explain why his xwOBA is higher than his wOBA. But they have not resulted in the BABIP or AVG that is expected.

As Witt’s season continues, hopefully, his BABIP and wOBA catch up to his expected stats and result in a higher AVG for the young star.