The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With the NFL Draft comes dynasty rookie draft season! We have you covered with our dynasty rookie draft coverage, and of course, you can complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our mock draft simulator. While you take that simulator for a spin to prepare for your dynasty rookie mock drafts, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock and analysis from our analysts.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
1.06 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent.
In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect.
Dynasty Outlook: With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
2.06 – Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Rashee Rice ranked ninth in yards per route run and seventh in PFF receiving grade last season (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He saw 64.2% of his target volume against zone, where he ranked first in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade (minimum 25 zone targets per PFF). Rice adjusts well to back shoulder balls and displays solid body control. He does have some concentration drops in traffic on film. His speed is more the build-up variety. Rice displays some inconsistencies gearing down on comebacks or curls, needing too many steps at times, or losing his balance. His short area separation is better on slants where he can use a good first step of the line and his size. Rice, far too often, lets cornerbacks get into his body and jam him up at the top of his stem.
Dynasty Outlook: Rice was among the few pleasant surprises of the Day 2 NFL Draft action. Yes, I remember my Skyy Moore love, a cautionary tale for fantasy gamers before they get too attached to Rice. However, Rice could fill the void that JuJu Smith-Schuster left in year one. Smith-Schuster’s calling card these days is his ability to beat zone coverage. This also is a strength of Rice as he ranked first in PFF’s receiving grade against zone and third in yards per route run against the coverage type last year (minimum 20 zone targets per PFF). We’ll see how his playing time shakes out in 2023, but he could be their starting slot receiver in Week 1. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will continue orchestrating his best Demarcus Robinson impression as a starter in Kansas City with his weekly cardio routes. After Valdes-Scantling, though, the two other starting spots are up for grabs, with Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rice, and likely Justin Watson all vying for snaps. Rice should be an early to mid-second-round rookie draft pick.
3.06: Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
Tank Dell is a rail-thin speedster (165 lbs). He was utilized in the slot, in motion and in bunch formations at Houston to give him free releases at the line. He’s best suited for slot usage in the NFL. Immediately his speed jumps off the page. Quick feet help him beat many nickels off the line. He drops from fourth to second gear easily on curls and comebacks. Dell is an early and late separator. He is a precise route runner who is lightning-quick in and out of his breaks. While he can be pushed off his route if corners can get their hands on him, Dell also flashes the ability to separate from the outside with speed releases. His ability to stretch the field is a nice wrinkle. He ranked 11th in passer rating when targeted 20-plus yards down the field in 2022 (minimum 20 deep targets).
Dynasty Outlook: The slightly framed Dell lasted until the third round when the Houston Texans selected him at the behest of their new quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Dell has been a high-end target earner at Houston over the last two seasons. We’ll see if that translates to the NFL, but he’s worth considering after the third round of rookie drafts. He’ll be duking it out with John Metchie, Noah Brown and Xavier Hutchinson for a Week 1 starting job.
4.06: Evan Hull (RB – IND)
Evan Hull is a tough runner with a compact build. He’s more quick than fast, but Hull also displays good burst as soon as the ball is in his hands. He has excellent lateral agility and can jump cut on a dime. Hull has a strong leg drive to finish runs with impressive contact balance. He’s rarely dropped by the first defender he encounters. Watching Hull weave through traffic with jump cuts and impressive vision is a treat. Hull is also a plus-pass catcher. Hull is fluid in the passing game and has soft hands. He’s not a nuanced route runner, as he was utilized on dump-offs and simple stop routes. This part of his game could grow further in the NFL with a creative play-caller.
Dynasty Outlook: I’m an Evan Hull fanboy, and I don’t care who knows it. Hull has a three-down workhorse build and skillset. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson are scrubs to which new head coach Shane Steichen has no previous ties. The fifth-round pick could quickly ascend to RB2 on the Colts’ depth chart and factor in on passing downs. Jonathan Taylor is an unrestricted free agent after this season. I’m not saying that Hull is the heir apparent because the team could easily sign Taylor to an extension at any moment, but I also won’t rule out that Hull could take over for Taylor if the team moves on. Hull will slip to the fourth or maybe fifth round in many rookie dynasty drafts. I have no issues with anyone drafting him as early as the late-third round. This class becomes a grab bag of “get your guys” after round two.
5.06: Clayton Tune (QB – ARI)
Clayton Tune has adequate zip on short and intermediate throws. His average arm strength shows up past 15-20 yards as he rainbows deeper passes. Overall he has a good pocket presence with good mobility. He can buy time for his receivers to uncover. He will drift some against pressure, though. Tune was not asked to make full-field reads at Houston. He tends to force throws to his predetermined first read. He projects as a decent backup QB in the NFL.
Dynasty Outlook: Tune walks into camp, likely fighting for QB3 duties behind Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy. With his fifth-round draft capital and game manager ceiling, Tune is best avoided in all dynasty formats.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft Results & Board
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