Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: Davante Adams (2023 Fantasy Football)

Let’s look at what to expect from Davante Adams as you prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: Davante Adams (2023)

Here is our dynasty fantasy football outlook for Davante Adams.

Davante Adams 2022 Production

Career Contextualization

Before 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, Davante Adams spent his entire NFL career as a member of the Green Bay Packers, catching passes from future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The start to his career was quite rocky; after two years in the league, Adams was hardly the stud No. 1 WR we call today.

But he showed glimpses of the talent to keep his chances alive as a Packer. He had two 100-yard games as a rookie, including one in the postseason. And in his second season, he commanded a whopping 21 targets in one game.

The planets aligned for Adams in Year 3, as he hauled in 14 touchdowns. He would inherit the No. 1 role from Jordy Nelson in the Green Bay offense in 2017 — and the rest is history.

A healthy Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018 (Adams played only 12 games in 2019), and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29.

The dynamic duo’s chemistry was never more apparent than in or near the red zone, with Rodgers and Adams combining for 64 touchdowns — double-digits on average — since 2016, 23 more than the next closest duo over that span, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. Thirty-three percent of Rodgers’ touchdowns have gone to Adams over that period.

Some were skeptical if Adams’ TD production and high-end target share would continue with Derek Carr in 2022. Carr had never had a receiver catch double-digit touchdowns (several have had nine) in a single season.

Spoiler, it did not matter whatsoever. No player boasted a higher target share than  Adams in 2022. The ex-Packers WR showed the entire world he didn’t need Rodgers, hanging a league-leading 32.3% target share while finishing third in fantasy points per game (16.8) for the second straight season. He even showed that he could thrive without Carr, catching seven balls for 153 yards and two TDs in a Week 17 contest with Jarrett Stidham under center.

Although it should be noted that Adams faced zero target competition, with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow missing a surplus of games throughout the season.

Current Situation

The obvious concerns about Adams are his age (he will be 31 in December) and how he will gel with the injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo as his new QB. But Adams showed zero signs of aging, with the league’s fifth-highest yards per route run (2.45) as PFF’s second-highest graded WR. I also don’t believe the fit with Jimmy G is as poor as many may lead on. Garoppolo is an accurate quarterback – 6th in completion rate last season – which should allow Adams to vacuum up targets and add yardage after the catch.

The larger/real concern is how long Garoppolo will stay upright, based on his current foot injury and long injury track record. The other QBs on the Raiders’ depth chart are Brian Hoyer (woof), Chase Garbers and the fourth-round rookie from Purdue, Aidan O’Connell.

O’Connell finished second in his draft class in passing yards per game (291) in 2022 while displaying above-average accuracy as a thrower from the pocket. With a super quick release, the ex-Boilermaker signal-caller finished inside the top-4 quarterbacks in catchable target percentage and on-target rate per Sports Info Solutions.

Still, I fully expect the majority of QB issues to be mitigated to some extent by sheer volume, as the depth chart is barren behind Adams and Jakobi Meyers for targets. Hunter Renfrow is expected to be traded or cut.

General Outlook for 2023 and Rest of Career

We can no longer view Adams as the same locked-and-loaded top-5 fantasy WR with the ongoing QB concerns, and he falls to WR15 in my dynasty wide receiver rankings. He is WR18 in the latest June update of the FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart. 

At his age – 31 in December – he’s an obvious sell for any dynasty team looking to rebuild. Win-now dynasty squads would be wise to buy Adams at a discount with the ongoing Garoppolo injury noise when it’s likely being overblown. Jimmy G likely won’t be Adam’s long-term QB anyway. Ergo, Adams is definitely a hold with at least one more solid fantasy WR1 season left in the tank.

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