The NFL offseason rings the bell for the start of the dynasty startup season. Each year dynasty GMs vow not to enter any more leagues, but when it’s all said and done, their league total will climb before the kickoff of Week 1 (yes, this is me).
If you’re considering diving into dynasty for the first time, DO IT. You won’t regret the year-round management and extra layer of strategy dynasty fantasy football provides. We have everything you need to get up to speed on dynasty and have a leg up on your opponents in our dynasty draft kit.
Must-Have Dynasty Startup Players (2023 Fantasy Football)
In addition to the mountain of info in our dynasty draft kit, here are my top-ten dynasty startup targets.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: QB16)
Daniel Jones’ startup ADP is a gift. The market hates Jones, and I don’t understand it. Last year Jones was the QB10 in fantasy points per game with a patchwork group of receiving talent surrounding him. This offseason, the front office handed him a contract ensuring two-year certainty for his dynasty stock and continued to add talent to this roster. Is the Giants’ receiver room one of the best in the league? No, but the front office has taken a Kansas City Chiefs-like approach to building out their passing game. Darren Waller will operate as the clear number one option for Jones, with the rest of the group fitting in as role players. Brian Daboll can mix and match wide receiver talents again this year with a deeper and more diverse group to choose from. Jones’ top-five finishes last year in red zone carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns are all replicable in 2023. The big area where Jones can continue to show growth is in the passing department. With more competent weapons in-house from the start of the season, we should see this offense tilt to more passing. After Week 10 last season, the team was tenth in neutral pace, 14th in neutral passing rate, and 11th in play success rate. If everything coalesces for Jones in 2023, he could be a top 5-7 fantasy quarterback.
Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: QB24)
Yes, I’ve been a known Kenny Pickett hater since he arrived in Pittsburgh. My disdain for Pickett has not centered around his ability to become a league-average quarterback but more along the lines of questioning his ceiling in the NFL. With new information, it’s time to adjust my thinking about that. Based on his end-of-season finish down the stretch, I could have been selling Pickett short. In Weeks 12-18 last year, Pickett ranked first in PFF passing grade, fourth in big-time throw rate, and first in PFF’s deep passing grade (minimum 50 dropbacks per PFF). During that span, the Steelers’ offense was third in EPA per play and passing EPA per play. Pickett should have more time in the pocket last year as the Steelers remade the left side of an offensive line that, as a whole, ranked 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade last year. Adding Broderick Jones and Isaac Seumalo (tenth in PFF pass-blocking grade among guards with at least 150 blocking snaps last year) to this front, five will pay massive dividends. Pickett is mispriced by the dynasty community and could see a big stock uptick this year. Invest now in startups before this happens.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: RB13)
No matter how you slice it, Mondre is the man. He is one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Last year he was first in yards after contact per attempt, eighth in breakaway run rate, 18th in yards per route run, and tenth in target per route run rate (minimum 100 carries, 20 targets per PFF). Last year the Patriots leaned on Stevenson as he recorded 12 games with at least 60% of the snaps played, averaging 18.7 touches and 122.8 total yards over that timeframe. In those games, Stevenson had an outstanding 18.8% target share and a 60.1% route run rate. Bill O’Brien replacing the hapless defensive-minded duo of offensive ineptitude (Joe Jude and Matt Patricia) means only good things for this offense overall and Stevenson. During O’Brien’s last five years of leading an NFL offense, his starting running back saw at least a 58.7% opportunity share, with some backs earning up to 73.9% (ninth-best in 2016) of the backfield touches. Stevenson should eat this year.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: RB15)
Dobbins enters a contract year prepared to smash in a revitalized offense under the direction of Todd Monken. When Dobbins has been on the field he’s been one of the best rushers in the NFL. Last year operating one healthy leg, he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). The last time we saw him at full health in his rookie season he was top 12 in each of these metrics (eighth, second, 11th). Marry Dobbins’ talent with Monken who fed top-ten opportunity shares in his last two years as an offensive coordinator to Nick Chubb and Peyton Barber and we have the recipe for an undervalued Dobbins to earn a lucrative second contract and crush in 2023.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: RB23)
Toss Akers into the same beautiful bucket as Dobbins. A contract-year running back primed and motivated to shut the doubters up. Akers displayed last season that he is fully back from the Achilles injury that derailed his career. In Weeks 10-18 last season, he was 21st in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in PFF elusive rating (per PFF). If we zoom in further, the numbers only get sexier. In Weeks 13-18, Akers averaged 19.1 touches, 101.8 total yards and was the RB6 in fantasy points per game. During that timeframe, he was tied for 11th in high-value touches among running backs as he gobbled up 100% of the team’s carries inside the ten-yard line. With Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp returning, Akers should be Sean McVay’s workhorse. Akers is only 23 years old, with plenty of tread left on the tires. Even if the Rams don’t resign him, if he fills up the box scores this season, he should have no problem earning a starting job and a second contract with another team for 2024.
James Cook (RB – BUF)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: RB29)
A second-year running back with second-round draft capital that is currently being drafted in startups outside of the top 24 running backs, yeah, this is a smash pick. Cook was electric with his touches last year. He ranked 28th in yards after contact per attempt, first in breakaway percentage, and 19th in PFF elusive rating (per PFF). Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are looming goal-line sloths, but Cook has the talent to be the lead back in Buffalo. Devin Singletary produced RB30 and RB24 fantasy points per game finishes over the last two years with 58-59% opportunity shares. Cook could produce similar (if not better) results on less volume. Cooks also has a sizzling pass game upside after ranking ninth in yards per route run and sixth in targets per route run last season (minimum 30 targets). If Cook can cement himself as the lead option in this backfield, he should hold the role for the next few seasons. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are on one-year deals and likely out the door after 2023.
Second-year wide receivers with alpha upside
- Garrett Wilson (May Startup ADP per DLF: WR5)
- Christian Watson (May Startup ADP per DLF: WR19)
- Drake London (May Startup ADP per DLF: WR12)
- Chris Olave (May Startup ADP per DLF: WR7)
Each of these rookie wide receivers finished with at least a 76.0 PFF receiving grade and 50 targets. Since 2017 here are the rookie wide receivers that also surpassed those landmarks in their first season:
2021:
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Jaylen Waddle
- DeVonta Smith
2020:
- Justin Jefferson
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Tee Higgins
2019:
- Terry McLaurin
- A.J. Brown
- Hunter Renfrow
2018: None
2017:
This is an impressive list for Wilson, Watson, London, and Olave to be included in. These rookie wide receivers are currently ranked highly, but they are all worth “buying high.” Alpha wide receivers are difficult to acquire in dynasty once their status as such has been cemented. Each player has a clear path to a bevy of targets. Now is the time to strike.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: WR39)
It’s not hard to figure out that Rashod Bateman was never fully healthy in 2022. In Weeks 1-4, he was only a 67.6% route per dropback player despite the wide receiver room around him being less than spectacular. This didn’t stop Bateman from commanding a 19.5% target share, a 30.1% air yard share, and being targeted on 24% of his routes. Over this four-game stretch, Bateman was ranked fourth in yards per route run behind only Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and A.J. Brown (minimum 20 targets). Bateman’s talent is real. He needs his health to comply for a monster breakout season to ensue. Odell Beckham is washed, and Zay Flowers is a rookie. Bateman should pace Mark Andrews for the team lead in targets this season. Buy in. NOW!
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: WR35)
The worries surrounding Dotson are tangible. How much will Washington pass the ball this season? Will Sam Howell be a league-average starter, much less the long-term answer for the Commanders? These questions, plus some underwhelming full-season numbers from his first year, push Dotson down into WR3 territory in startups. Dotson was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air-yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). Investing in Dotson is a bet on talent, and from what he showed after returning from injury, the talent is there for him to put these fears in the rearview after 2023. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. The Washington hierarchy of targets could flip this year, with Dotson assuming the top role. Mclaurin could be gone after 2024, leaving Dotson as the team’s leading receiver.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: WR95)
Nacua should be a priority target in the later rounds of every startup. He has an easy path to a starting role in his first year, and whether or not you believe in his talent flourishing long term as I do, Nacua could be rising up dynasty ranks by mid-season, making him a good draft and flip for a profit. If Nacua didn’t deal with injuries in college and attended a more ballyhooed collegiate program, he wouldn’t have slipped in the NFL Draft. His efficiency metrics scream he will shock people with his production in 2023. Nacua ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He could get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after racking up 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in college. Have faith in the process. Draft Nacua.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: TE9)
Drafting Waller is risky. I won’t dismiss that, but he’s the easiest tight-end target to mine in startups that could access a championship-level ceiling in 2023. If Waller can’t stay on the field this year, the Giants can move on next year while saving nearly 6.1 million against the cap. Call me crazy, but I’m not willing to bury a 31-year-old tight end who, during his limited 2022 season, showed he can still produce with the best in the business. Last year Waller was 13th in PFF receiving grade, 12th in yards per route run, and first in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Waller should lead the Giants in targets this year if healthy and rise back up dynasty rankings. Waller the baller returns in 2023.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
(May Startup ADP per DLF: TE10)
Sammy Ballgame will begin his coronation as the next candidate for the king of the iron throne of tight ends, possibly as soon as 2023. LaPorta should have no problem earning the full-time role in Detroit from Day 1. His ridiculous talent can flourish with that lavish snap and route role in his back pocket. In each of his final two seasons in college, he has ranked inside the top 20 in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run among FBS tight ends (minimum 20 targets per PFF). LaPorta also flashed the deeper metrics that forecast an elite ceiling is on the horizon. In 2022 he led all FBS tight ends in man coverage targets while ranking second in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets per PFF). LaPorta is a future superstar at the position.
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