Our last article discussed players who receive a bump in PPR leagues, so we must dive into the other end of the pool. There are just as many players who see a decline in PPR formats, and we will discuss those here.
It feels like the fantasy community has been trending toward more PPR leagues over the last decade, but there are still plenty of standard formats out there. It’s now the traditional way to play fantasy football, and it’s helpful to know which players are overvalued in those formats.
With that said, let’s kickstart this piece with one of the best running backs in the NFL!
Our last article discussed players who receive a bump in PPR leagues, so we must dive into the other end of the pool. There are just as many players who see a decline in PPR formats, and we will discuss those here.
It feels like the fantasy community has been trending toward more PPR leagues over the last decade, but there are still plenty of standard formats out there. It’s now the traditional way to play fantasy football, and it’s helpful to know which players are overvalued in those formats.
With that said, let’s kickstart this piece with one of the best running backs in the NFL!
Players Seeing Decline in PPR Leagues
Here are players who are less valuable in PPR scoring formats.
Running Back Declines
Despite seeing an increase in targets and receptions last year, Derrick Henry has always been the poster boy for a player losing value in PPR leagues. While he was the leading rusher in the NFL over the last four years, Henry had just 88 receptions for 872 receiving yards in that four-year span. There are running backs who will do that in one year, and it limits his upside in PPR formats. That said, he finished as a top-five back in all of those and remains a great option, no matter what.
There’s a chance Nick Chubb sees more work in the passing game with Kareem Hunt leaving town, but it’s clear they want to pound him through the tackles as much as possible. Chubb has run for at least 986 rushing yards and eight touchdowns every year since he was drafted but has never had more than 36 catches for 278 receiving yards. He’s also never had more than two receiving touchdowns in any year, and it’s shown in his fantasy finishes. Chubb was fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth in standard leagues over the last four years but finished ninth, 12th, 13th and sixth in PPR leagues in that same span. It’s not much of a drop-off, but it’s enough to lower his value in PPR leagues.
Drafting a Bills running back is risky in itself, but it’s even more horrifying when they have no receiving upside. That’s what we have with Damien Harris, who has just 40 catches for 287 receiving yards throughout his four-year career. That’s the minimum you need in one season from your fantasy back, and it could get even worse since Buffalo rarely throws to their rushers. He will also have to battle Latavius Murray and James Cook for touches, with Cook expected to take on most of the passing downs. The only format Harris is useful in is standard because he could fall into double-digit touchdowns for this elite offense.
Wide Receiver Declines
Big-play players are always great options in standard leagues. That’s what we have with Jaylen Waddle, who had 75 catches for 1,356 receiving yards last year. That’s hard to even fathom, with Waddle leading the NFL with 18.1 yards per catch. He finished 10th in standard leagues last year and 13th in PPR formats. Tyreek Hill is stealing over 30 percent of the team’s targets as well, severely limiting Waddle’s upside in PPR formats. Waddle was 22nd in the NFL in team target share, and these two receivers’ usages could drop since there are so many good weapons in this backfield. There’s also some chatter that they will sign another back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miami lead the league in rush attempts if that does happen.
This is a tricky one, but what makes Deebo Samuel so valuable is that he does a little bit of everything. That’s always more useful in standard leagues because it gives him a higher floor. Having a higher floor is far more critical in standard leagues than in PPR leagues because so many players bottom out in standard leagues every week. Samuel has 101 carries for 597 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground over the last two years. Most receivers don’t get a single carry all year, and his red zone assertiveness adds to his value immensely in standard leagues. He’s finished 25th and second in standard leagues over the last two years while finishing 28th and fourth in PPR leagues.
No player in the NFL loses more value from a standard league to a PPR one than Gabe Davis. This was the darling of many fantasy managers’ eyes in draft season last year, but the big plays overshadowed many of his flaws. Despite finishing with 836 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, Davis had just 48 catches. He also had just 35 receptions in each of the two years prior, and it’s become clear Davis is strictly a down-the-field threat at this point in his career. He finished 24th in standard leagues last year but 36th in PPR. His 14.4 air yards per reception was the highest total among all wide receivers, but he finished 52nd in the NFL in receptions.
Tight End Declines
George Kittle is an elite tight end no matter what format you play in, but he’s far more valuable in a standard league. We say that because Kittle has averaged 948 receiving yards per year over the last four seasons. He’s doing that damage on just 70 catches, despite ranking top-three in both receiving yards and air yards during that stretch among tight ends. He also had 11 touchdowns last year, and we saw him drop off to 60 catches for 675 yards. Kittle also led all eligible tight ends with 12.8 yards per catch, the tall tale sign of a standard league player. There are too many weapons in this offense for Kittle to be a target hound. As long as he’s seeing a ton of air yards and red zone opportunities, Kittle is a top option in standard leagues. We like him in any league, but he should rise a round in standard formats.
Talk about a team with too many cooks in the kitchen. The Eagles are overwhelmed with position players to feed, and it’s limited Dallas Goedert in PPR leagues recently. The big man has fewer than 58 receptions in all five years since being drafted but is averaging 666 receiving yards over the last four years. That had him tied with Kittle for the highest yards-per-catch average among all eligible tight ends, but he’s not trustworthy in PPR leagues behind his 14 percent team target share from last year. We also expect this to be one of the best offenses in the NFL, and we genuinely believe he’ll set a career-high in touchdowns because he’s never been above five. That would only add to his value in a standard league, especially if we see another decline in receptions.
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