Identifying breakout players early is how you win fantasy leagues, right? But what about the opposite: identifying players who are going to be fantasy football busts? Identifying those players, especially in dynasty leagues, can help you get out of what I like to call the “Jalen Reagor Business” before it’s too late. We asked our featured dynasty experts to identify bust candidates they’re either avoiding or looking to trade away in their leagues. Their responses and accompanying justifications are below.
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Bust Candidates to Avoid or Trade Away in Dynasty Leagues
What RB inside of the 50 overall in our Dynasty Consensus Superflex Rankings are you avoiding or looking to trade away in dynasty leagues and why?
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
“Dameon Pierce feels like the easy answer here. I’ve been on the fence about him for some time already, but his current ECR of RB15, 45th overall, feels too rich to me. He could have a good 2023, but his future is certainly doubtful. On top of that, the Texans might be an entirely different team a year from now. I don’t hate the player; I hate the value here.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
“Last year, Austin Ekeler was the RB1, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, now is the time to trade away the superstar running back. He recently turned 28 and has totaled 587 touches over the past three years. More importantly, the veteran is entering the last year of his contract, and the Chargers don’t seem interested in signing him to a long-term extension. Meanwhile, the team won’t need Ekeler to average 7.5 targets per game again this season after they drafted Quentin Johnson. Between his age, contract, and situation, now is the time to sell high on the superstar running back.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“It seems blasphemous to fade Austin Ekeler, but … I’m fading Austin Ekeler. The Chargers’ star running back is 28, so it’s possible we’ll see an age-related drop-off from Ekeler in the next year or two. Ekeler led all running backs with 107 receptions last season, but he averaged 5.7 yards per target, a career low. It seems unlikely Ekeler sees that sort of target volume again. QB Justin Herbert averaged an absurdly low 6.4 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, and the Chargers are hoping to make their passing game less horizontal and more vertical by replacing last year’s offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, with Kellen Moore. That could mean significantly fewer targets for Ekeler, and a dip in passing game usage could mean a substantial loss of fantasy value for a player who’s never had more than 915 rushing yards in a single season.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
“Najee Harris – RB13 – Harris crashed down to Earth after an impressive rookie campaign where his 94 targets saw him be incredibly valuable, and the 53 he saw in 2022 might be more representative now he no longer has the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Harris’s injuries and below-average play opened the door for the impressive undrafted rookie, Jaylen Warren, to carve out a role, and it’s hard to see Harris ever regaining the 85% snap rate he had in his rookie year. Warren averaged 4.8 yards per carry, which is a full yard more than Harris managed in 2022, along with a better catch rate of 86% to Harris’s 76%. Harris faces a real battle for his touches.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
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What WR inside of the 50 overall in our Dynasty Consensus Superflex Rankings are you avoiding or looking to trade away in dynasty leagues and why?
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
“There are a few receivers I’m avoiding, but the one that stands out most is Deebo Samuel at WR23, 40th overall. I love his upside, but his floor scares me. However, a lot of the other receivers in that range have question marks too. That being said, I’d rather take some of the RBs here and wait on my WR2 or WR3 in the later rounds than risk adding someone like Samuel to my roster for this price.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
“Stefon Diggs averaged over 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, making it the second time he’s reached that average during his three years in Buffalo. However, Diggs and the Bills have had some issues this offseason, and a divorce could happen after this year. More importantly, the veteran struggled in the second half of the 2022 season. After averaging 109.4 receiving yards and 19.6 fantasy points per game over the first nine contests, Diggs averaged only 63.4 receiving yards and 12.3 fantasy points per game over the final seven games. Was last year’s second-half decline a fluke or a sign of things to come?”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
“Davante Adams spent his first eight years in the NFL catching passes from future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers, then headed to Las Vegas to reunite with his old college teammate at Fresno State, Derek Carr. Now, Adams is likely to be paired with QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who doesn’t aggressively push the ball downfield. Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, according to Pro Football Reference, the fourth-highest total in the league. Garoppolo averaged 6.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last year. (Garoppolo also had surgery for a foot injury in March, and if he’s not able to go in Week 1, either Brian Hoyer or rookie Aiden O’Connell will be the Raiders’ starting QB.) Adams is reportedly unhappy with the direction of the Raiders’ offense, which is concerning. He’s also 30 now, so the age cliff is drawing closer. Adams is one of the most talented receivers in the league, but his current circumstances suggest that fading him in dynasty is the prudent move.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
“Christian Watson – WR20 – Between Weeks 10 and 13 Watson was the WR3, putting up 99 PPR points and pulling fantasy rosters toward the playoffs. It’s very much a step into the unknown with Jordan Love now at quarterback for the Packers and without Rodgers Watson’s value feels very difficult to project. Does Watson really warrant being 46 spots ahead of Romeo Doubs in wide receiver rankings? Possibly not, and it’s very possible that Watson’s value will take a hit this year.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
For more dynasty trade advice, check out our Dynasty Trade Value Chart 
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