July is almost upon us. At the end of the month, the NFL will open training camps and players will start battling for roster positions. That also means that fantasy leagues will be conducting drafts soon, so it is time to start thinking about which players are going to be on your team.

Wide receivers offer a ton of value in fantasy, especially in PPR leagues. WRs not only generate a ton of fantasy points with their yards and touchdowns, but they also deliver points with their receptions. The elite receivers tend to fly off the board early in fantasy drafts. Making the correct decision with those players can be the difference between getting into the playoffs and having a disappointing season.

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WRs to Avoid (2023)

Below are some of the fantasy wide receivers that I would avoid at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). It does not mean that I think they will be unusable in fantasy football this year. It simply means that I think they are not going to score enough fantasy points to live up to their current ADP.

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

The Rams are just one season removed from winning Super Bowl LVI, a 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. They had the worst title defense in NFL history, setting a record with 12 losses by a defending Super Bowl champion. The Rams front office did not try to reload in 2023, they opted for the rebuild. The Rams unloaded Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd and Allen Robinson this offseason. They were not very active in free agency, instead focusing on the NFL Draft. They drafted the most players in the league this year (14) and they signed 24 undrafted free agents after the 2023 NFL Draft.

There are still some pieces left from the 2022 offense, most notably Matthew Stafford and Kupp. Stafford had 4,866 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns in 2021 and Kupp had 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. They were two of the best players in the league that season. They were not able to duplicate that production in 2022. Stafford missed eight games last year, dealing with elbow and concussion issues. He finished the year with 2,087 yards passing and 10 passing touchdowns. Kupp played only nine games due to an ankle injury but was much better than Stafford in the games he played. Kupp tallied 75 receptions for 812 yards and six touchdowns in those nine games.

The big problem for the Rams’ offense in 2022 was the offensive line. The offensive line fell apart in 2022, their sack percentage went from 4.9% in 2021 to 10.0% in 2022. This offensive line figures to be one of the weaker units in the NFL, which means that Stafford is probably going to struggle to stay healthy the entire season. Kupp is also turning 30 years old, it does not make much sense that he is the fourth-overall player and third-overall receiver.

Kupp will benefit from a huge target share, he was second in the NFL at 31.3% before he was shut down due to injury. That figures to stay the same this year, as the Rams do not have any other established wide receivers. The problem is that he is an older receiver playing with an older quarterback behind a weak offensive line for a team in a rebuild. There are too many things that  could go wrong to make Kupp a safe pick with the fourth overall pick.

NFL Target Leaders – Week 1-10

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Samuel was one of the most productive players in the NFL in 2021. The 49ers used him as both a wide receiver and running back and he tallied 1,405 yards receiving, 365 yards rushing and 14 total touchdowns. That production declined to 632 yards receiving, 232 yards rushing and five touchdowns in 2022. That caused his fantasy ranking to drop from the second-ranked fantasy wide receiver to the 38th-ranked fantasy wide receiver.

The 49ers’ offense has a ton of question marks. Samuel and Christian McCaffrey played only seven games together last year. Is Samuel going to have the same value as a runner this year that he did in 2021 with McCaffrey in the backfield, probably not. The 49ers ranked 26th in pass attempts last year, is that enough passing attempts to keep Samuel in the WR2 discussion with George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk also demanding targets? Finally, is Brock Purdy going to be healthy by Week 1, if he is not ready to go can Samuel be WR2 with Trey Lance behind center? What happens if neither pans out and Sam Darnold starts games?

Samuel is being ranked as the 16th-ranked fantasy wide receiver and the 35th-ranked overall player. That seems quite high for a player on team with that many question marks coming off a season where he had only one game with 100 yards receiving and only three games with 60 yards receiving. Some of the decline can be attributed to injuries, Samuel missed four games due to injury and he was dinged in several other games that he played. The bigger concern for me is that I do not think he is going to have a big rushing role with McCaffery on the team and the 49ers have a ton of uncertainty at quarterback. Samuel is someone to avoid in the third round of fantasy drafts.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – FA)

Hopkins is the 19th-ranked fantasy wide receiver and 42nd-ranked overall player and he does not even have a team at the moment. His value on a team that passes the ball a lot with an elite quarterback, such as Kansas City or Buffalo would be a lot different than on a team that runs the ball more and does not possess an elite quarterback, like New England or Tennessee.

Hopkins was good in limited action last year, he missed the first six games of the season with a suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy. He played nine games and tallied 96 targets, 64 receptions and 717 yards. The two numbers that were not good were the yards per reception and touchdowns. He averaged a career-low 11.2 yards per reception and he scored only three touchdowns. He is also 31 years old and is at the point where fantasy managers have to worry about his production declining due to age.

There is a reason that there has not been a hot market for Hopkins. If he was viewed as a difference-making player, the Cardinals would not have released him and more teams would be lining up to secure his services. It is expected that he will end up signing with either Tennessee or New England in the coming weeks. He will have a significant role on those teams, but New England was 21st in pass attempts and Tennessee was 30th. Neither has an established franchise quarterback. It is hard to see him finishing as a Top-20 fantasy wide receiver on either of those offenses.

Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)

I am a little surprised that Ridley is currently the 20th-ranked fantasy wide receiver and 44th-ranked overall player. That ranking is so high, that he is currently ranked higher than the Jaguars’ 2021 leading wide receiver, Christian Kirk, who is the 25th-ranked wide receiver and 53rd-overall player. Kirk was a very good receiver last year. He tallied 84 receptions for 1,108 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He had 28 targets, 15 receptions, 130 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns in two playoff games last year. He was a huge part of their offense and he was the 11th ranked fantasy wide receiver for the season.

We need to keep a few things in mind about Ridley. He has a ton of talent and he is a great route runner. Nobody is disputing his physical tools, there is a reason he was a first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He is also turning 29 years old this year, even though he is playing under his rookie contract, he is not a young player. He has been in the league since 2018 and he has tallied over 1,000 yards receiving in a season just one time. He has not had 10 touchdown receptions in a season since his rookie year. When he left football for personal reasons in 2021, he was averaging just 56.2 yards per game receiving and he had only two touchdowns. He was having a disappointing season for fantasy managers that drafted him in the second round as the sixth receiver off the board.

Ridley has a role in this offense and they are going to throw him the ball. I just do not know if they are going to throw the ball to him enough to be a Top-20 wide receiver that scores more fantasy points than Kirk. I think Zay Jones is the player that is going to have a harder time being fantasy relevant with Ridley on the roster, Kirk is the better fantasy option after a solid 2022 season. I would not use a fourth or fifth-round pick on a player who is now 29 years old and has not played a down of NFL football since early in the 2021 season.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)

Lockett has been one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL over the last four seasons. Locket has averaged 116.5 targets, 84.75 receptions, 1,079.75 receiving yards and 8.75 touchdown receptions. He has been a Top-15 fantasy receiver every season, yet he was not selected for the Pro Bowl in any of those seasons. Last year, he was the 45th-ranked receiver and 108th-ranked player and ended up being one of the best values in fantasy football.

The issue is that the Seahawks appear to be phasing Lockett out this year and will likely move on in 2024. The Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They did not do that, because they plan on keeping both DK Metcalf and Lockett in 2024. Metcalf signed a contract extension last year for $72 million. He will not be a free agent until 2026. Lockett is 31 years old this year and the Seahawks can save over $7 million in cap space by releasing him in 2024.

It sure looks like the Seahawks are going to see what they have with Smith-Njigba in 2023 and that is bad news for Lockett. I think he will have a few big games here and there, but there is no way that his targets are going to stay at the 110-120 mark if Smith-Njigba is going to also have a significant role in the offense. Lockett is likely going to see only 75-95 targets and that means he will probably see between 800 and 900 yards and five touchdowns. That is going to make it hard for him to live up to being the 31st-ranked fantasy wide receiver and 66th overall player.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Evans has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL since being drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2014. Evans has been in the league for nine years and he has tallied nine 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He has been great in the red zone, scoring 81 touchdowns in 137 games. However, he was not a very consistent player last year. Three of his six touchdowns came in one game, a Week 16 contest against the Carolina Panthers. He only had three 100-yard games and seven games where he had less than 60 yards receiving. He was a very frustrating fantasy player for much of the season.

This year, he turns 30 years old and he no longer has Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Baker Mayfield seems poised to win the starting job, but Kyle Trask could earn some starts as well. Mayfield has not had a 300-yard passing game since Week 5 of the 2021 season and he has not thrown three touchdown passes in a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2020 season. Trask had nine pass attempts last year. The combination of Evans turning 30 years old on a team with a below-average QB situation makes Evans a risky pick as the 33rd-ranked wide receiver and 70th overall player. There are a lot of players with more upside than Evans in this rebuilding offense.

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Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.