As the fantasy football community gets more intelligent and informed, locating value in drafts becomes more challenging. Nevertheless, there are plenty of undervalued players. In fact, there are enough to avoid overlapping too much with the players featured in NFL Best Ball Draft Values for Each Round. Many of the players in that piece are also excellent values in traditional season-long managed leagues.
For instance, Trevor Lawrence, Cam Akers, James Cook, Rashaad Penny, Skyy Moore, Juwan Johnson and Sam Howell fit the bill as undervalued players in season-long leagues. So, readers are encouraged to check the linked piece out for an analysis of those seven players. Yet, only one player among the half-dozen featured in this piece is a carryover. This piece has two players from the early rounds, two from the mid and two from the late rounds. Finally, the average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR) are for half-point point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
Draft Values to Target
Let’s take a look at players going in the early, middle, and late rounds of fantasy football drafts that currently present value.
Early-Round Undervalued Players (Rounds 1-4)
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): 26.0 ADP/18 ECR
Stevenson had a breakout sophomore campaign after flashing his potential as a rookie. He was the RB13 in half-point PPR points per game (PPG) last year. Despite his stature as a big running back, he was a do-it-all bell-cow capable of avoiding tackles, not a one-dimensional plodding bruiser. As a result, per Pro-Football-Reference, Stevenson was 13th in scrimmage yards (1,461).
Stevenson was a focal point of New England’s offense as a high-quality runner and talented pass-catcher. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Stevenson was their 13th-graded running back, first in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.81 YCO/A) and fifth in their Elusiveness metric out of 45 running backs with at least 100 carries in the regular season and postseason.
Furthermore, per PFF, Stevenson was targeted on 25.7% of his routes. Comparatively, Austin Ekeler was targeted on 27.3% of his routes, and Christian McCaffrey was targeted on 24.2% of his. Stevenson parlayed his juicy pass-catching role into 4.1 receptions per game, 24.8 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown.
The most notable blemish on Stevenson’s 2022 stat line was scoring only six touchdowns. If New England’s offense takes a step forward with Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator after last year’s circus led by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, Stevenson can score more touchdowns in 2023. Regardless, Stevenson has a dreamy blend of high volume and efficiency.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): 43.0 ADP/43 ECR
Allen is the carryover teased in the intro. While he’s a value in best ball, his consistency is ideal for traditional season-long managed leagues. Sadly, Allen missed seven games last year. He was sharp when he played, though. There’s no need to rehash the excellent numbers discussed in-depth in the NFL Best Ball Draft Values for Each Round piece.
Instead, Allen’s consistency is the focus this time. When he was finally healthy down the stretch, Allen was the WR11 in PPG among wideouts who played more than one game from Week 11 through Week 17, averaging 13.4 half-point PPR PPG. Allen’s scoring ranged from 9.3 to 17.8 PPG. He had 9.9, 13.4, 17.8, 15.2, 12.6, 15.9 and 9.3 PPG in those games. The savvy route-running veteran has a high floor and is attached to a potent offense and top-flight quarterback, giving him a desirable ceiling, too. Therefore, Allen is an ideal WR2 or a stellar WR1 on teams that invest in non-WRs with their first three picks.
Mid-Round Undervalued Players (Rounds 5-10)
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): 65.3 ADP/62 ECR
D.K. Metcalf is a physical freak and a talented wideout. Yet, the diminutive Lockett was a higher fantasy scorer the previous two years. So, it’s a bit crazy Metcalf has an ADP of 32.3 and Lockett’s is 65.3. Metcalf’s ADP is reasonable, but Lockett is a screaming value. The following table breaks down the matchup further, including routes and Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) from PFF, targets inside the 5-yard line, 10-yard line and 20-yard line from our red zone stats and traditional stats from the 2021 and 2022 regular seasons.
Lockett's a highly-efficient wideout in an ascending offense. Sure, the Seahawks used the 20th pick in this year's NFL Draft to pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Fortunately, there should be plenty of meat on the bone for the incumbent stud wideouts. According to nfelo, the Seahawks were eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (1.5% PROE) last year. And per Football Outsiders, the Seahawks were 13th in situation-neutral pace. Gamers shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on Lockett as early as the middle of the fifth round, and anything later is a bargain.
Darren Waller (TE - NYG): 76.7 ADP/76 ECR
Unfortunately, the injury bug has bit Waller in the past two years, limiting him to 20 games. It's not all bad, though. Waller is priced at an injury discount this year and performed well when on the field. He was the TE10 in 2023 and the TE5 in 2022 in PPG. And Waller was a fantasy stalwart the two years before, ranking as the TE7 and TE2 in PPG in 2019 and 2020, playing in all 32 games.
Admittedly, last year was a down season for Waller. Nevertheless, he was still productive. According to PFF, he was 11th in their receiving grade and 10th in Yards per Route Run (1.55 Y/RR) among 43 tight ends targeted at least 30 times. Moreover, Waller is only one year removed from posting 1.70 Y/RR and earning a target on 23.4% of his routes.
Waller can benefit from a change of scenery this year. The Giants traded for him, and Waller profiles as one of the few tight ends favored to lead their club in targets, putting him in elite company. Health permitting, Waller's ADP and ranking at the position are closer to his floor than his ceiling. So, Waller is precisely the type of calculated risk gamers should take slightly ahead of his ADP.
Late-Round Undervalued Players (Round 11 or Later)
D'Onta Foreman (RB - CHI): 139.0 ADP/127 ECR
To borrow an expression from JJ Zachariason of Late-Round Fantasy Football, the Bears have an ambiguous backfield. However, Khalil Herbert has an ADP of 108.0, approximately two-and-a-half rounds earlier than Foreman. So, drafters seem to be wish-casting Herbert into a featured role.
The gap is too large, though. While Herbert was an explosive and efficient runner last year, Foreman wasn't a slouch. The following table has a side-by-side comparison of their rushing marks in 2022 from PFF.
Herbert's and Foreman's PFF running grades weren't impressive out of 58 running backs with at least 75 attempts in 2022. But they did an excellent job of piling up yards after contact. Herbert's advantage in yards per rush attempt was the most stark difference between the two backs. The incumbent running back likely benefited from Justin Fields's elite rushing ability, though. Foreman played last year in Carolina, and Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker and Sam Darnold didn't threaten opposing defenses as rushers. Foreman should take a step forward from his rock-solid 4.5 yards per attempt, thanks to Fields's wheels.
Most importantly, Chicago's backfield should be an open competition between Herbert, Foreman and Roschon Johnson, whom the team selected 115th overall in the fourth round of this year's draft. Despite Herbert's efficiency last year, the coaching staff and organization never turned the reigns over to him. Instead, in the 12 games Herbert and David Montgomery played together in 2022, Montgomery had 144 rushes, and Herbert had 110. Herbert has the skills to spearhead the backfield, but getting Foreman as a cheap late-round dart is exciting since he can also lead a committee.
Nico Collins (WR - HOU): 158.3 ADP/128 ECR
The Texans hope they found their franchise quarterback in this year's draft, selecting C.J. Stroud with the second pick. Houston's pass-catchers can benefit immensely if Stroud can hit the ground running. Yet, even competent play could produce a viable fantasy option or two.
Collins quite literally stands out in Houston's wide receiver group, standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 215 pounds. Many of Houston's wideouts are small and best served in the slot. Meanwhile, Collins is a big-bodied field stretcher who showed growth in his sophomore campaign.
In 10 games in 2022, Collins averaged 3.7 receptions and 48.1 receiving yards per game and caught two touchdowns. He improved his PFF receiving grade and improved from 1.24 Y/RR as a rookie to 1.68 Y/RR in his second season. Collins also made massive strides at hauling in contested passes. After catching only five of 12 contested targets in 2021, he had 12 contested catches on 16 contested targets. Collins's ability to beat defensive backs on contested throws could quickly earn him the trust of Stroud.
Additionally, Collins's vertical use is a stylistic fit with Stroud. Per PFF, Collins had nine receptions on 23 targets from 10-19 yards downfield and four on 12 targets 20-plus yards downfield in 2022. And among 109 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 30 deep passes (20-plus yards) in 2022, Stroud was PFF's 12th-graded passer, completing 31 of 61 attempts for 1,082 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Collins is unlikely to be a target hog. Still, his 22.4% targets per route run last year was rock-solid, and his 12.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) gives him home-run potential. The third-year pro could become a fantasy asset with another step forward. So, instead of taking a boring veteran bereft of upside and similar to other players who will be undrafted, gamers should take a swing on Collins and cut him loose for a hot waiver option if he doesn't pan out.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
