We’ve looked at players who are target regression candidates, and today we’re going to dive into the other end of the pool. The winds of change blow through the NFL each offseason which inevitably gives new opportunities to players to step into bigger roles. This has an obvious impact for fantasy purposes as well, and projecting increases in volume in a player can result in getting them at an average draft position (ADP) that is much lower than they should be going.

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Target Share Risers (2023 Fantasy Football)

Today we are going to look at six players who should see an increase in target volume this season. Many of them are benefitting from the departure of their team’s primary pass-catcher from last season, while a few are projected to step into bigger roles as they enter their second year in the league. Of this group, I believe five of them are being drafted at an ADP that I would consider a bargain for their potential role, with at least two being massive steals at the moment.

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)

2022 – 54 Targets (17.6% Target Share)

I am putting Treylon Burks first because he is already a fantasy darling heading into the summer. Attrition alone in Tennessee is enough of a reason to believe he is heading toward a significant increase in target share in 2023. The departures of Robert Woods and Austin Hooper opens up 151 targets in Tennessee, and the Titans didn’t bring in anyone to help soak those up. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Burks finished with 130 targets this year, making him a massive buy opportunity at his WR36 ADP.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)

2022 – 61 Targets (15.9% Target Share)

Jahan Dotson’s 2022 season was slowed by injury, but once he was fully healthy, he was a fixture in the Commanders’ passing game. Beginning in Week 13, Dotson had a 24% target share, which was good for 20th in the league. He was also third in end zone target share (50%) and 13th in yards per route run.

Even if you don’t have a lot of faith in Sam Howell, the addition of Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator in Washington should bode well for Dotson. He is another second-year receiver who is on the verge of a breakout.

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)

2022 – 107 Targets (23.7% Target Share)

As hard as this stat might be to believe, Marquise Brown had a lower target share in 2022 than he did in 2021 (26.7%). Brown started out last season on a tear, racking up 74 targets in his first six games, which put him on a 181-target pace. The return of DeAndre Hopkins, combined with an injury, derailed what was looking like a monster season for Brown.

Now he enters 2023 as the WR1 for Arizona as Hopkins has been released, and Arizona has very little left in the way of competition in the receiver room. It isn’t out of the question that Brown could see a 30% target share, giving him similar numbers from his first six games last year. I think he is a strong buy at his WR29 ADP this season.

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

2022 – 65 Targets (15.2% Target Share)

The bad news for Christian Watson is that the Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers, leaving Jordan Love to run the offense. They also lost Allen Lazard (100 targets) and Randall Cobb (50 targets) this offseason as well, which can only be a good thing for the second-year receiver. Watson battled injuries early on last season, but once healthy, he operated as the WR1 in Green Bay. While his touchdown efficiency is unsustainable, Watson should have no trouble eclipsing 100 targets this season which makes him a nice WR2 target in redraft.

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

2022 – 58 Targets (8% Target Share)

Like a lot of others discussed here, Rachaad White should benefit from attrition in the Tampa Bay offense. Leonard Fournette and his 83 targets have left town, leaving White as the primary beneficiary here. This works well with White’s skill set, as he has been seen as more of a receiving back anyway.

He handled himself well last year when Fournette was injured, so assuming the Buccaneers don’t bring in another back (no sure thing), White should be in line for a bump in his target share. With Buccaneers likely playing from behind in a lot of games this season, White has a big opportunity to be an RB2 in PPR leagues.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)

2022 – 46 Targets (10.6% Target Share)

Two Titans in an article about players who will see a bump in targets? Yes, and Chigoziem Okonkwo might be my favorite player here. This is as much an indictment of the dearth of options in the passing game for the Titans as anything else. That said, Okonkwo has worked himself into a position to be second in the pecking order behind Burks for targets here.

Tennessee brought him along slowly last year, but he finished the season with 31 targets over his last seven games. His ADP has been creeping up all spring, and now he is sitting at TE13 in PPR redraft leagues. That is still a nice value to me, although I was loving it when he was closer to TE18. He will be in the top 10 by August.

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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.