In my last article, we talked about how many veterans were being undervalued. That means many young players are overvalued, which will definitely be a theme in this article. It feels like every fantasy manager loves taking the mystery box over the boat, but that’s proven to be a fallacy more often than not.

One of my staple rules in fantasy football is never to draft a rookie running back, and it’s worked more often than not. One or two go off every year, but the other handful that gets reached for costs fantasy managers dearly. I try to avoid those major risks and draft safely, then build my roster throughout the year to find some upside plays. With that in mind, let’s get started with one of the most contentious players in the NFL.

Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.

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Worst 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Values on Yahoo! Leagues

Overvalued Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

QB10 Overall #68

Watson is one of the most controversial figures in the NFL, but that’s not what has us concerned. His play last season is what has me horrified because Watson was woeful in his limited time last year. In his six games last year, Watson never cracked 23 fantasy points. He also averaged just 28.3 pass attempts and 184 passing yards per game. Those averages would make Paxton Lynch cringe, but it’s not too surprising since Watson is on a run-first team.

Nick Chubb needs his 20-25 carries a game, and he’ll also be one of the league leaders in touchdowns. This guy has also used to provide 500 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground in the past, but we don’t expect that to be part of this game the older he gets. The final straw is this division, playing one of the best defenses in the NFL week after week.

Overvalued Running Backs

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

RB4 Overall #6

I must preface this by saying that Bijan will not be a bust. One of my fantasy football rules is never to draft a rookie running back as one of my starters. A few rookies go off every season, but nobody remembers that it took 10 weeks for them to become fantasy relevant. We’re not saying that will be the case for Bijan because he could have one of the best rookie seasons of all time. You’re paying for him to have one of the best stat lines of any player in the NFL, though, spending a high first-round pick to draft him.

What worries us is this team situation. We expect Cordarelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier to still be part of this offense, with TA recording at least 17 carries in the final four games of last season. You need your first-round running back to be a bell cow, and that’s only happened a handful of times for rookies over the last 20 years.

We’re also scared of this subpar offense because Bijan could be looking at numerous eight-man boxes with no comparable quarterback behind center. We expect Robinson to be an incredible player for the next decade, but we’re not willing to pay this price in his rookie season.

Damien Harris (RB – BUF)

RB31 Overall #111

There’s some speculation that Harris could be the starting running back in Buffalo, but we don’t want to trust this situation. This team hasn’t had a good season from a running back in over five years, with Josh Allen doing everything for this team. The best individual season since 2017 was 830 rushing yards and seven touchdowns from Devin Singletary.

The Bills also rarely pass to their backs, which doesn’t matter since Harris has never proven to be a receiving threat out of the backfield. That means you’re leaning on rushing yards and touchdowns for Harris to provide value which is terrifying since Harris has only had one good year in his career.

The depth of this backfield is scary, too, because Harris will have to battle James Cook and Latavius Murray for carries, while Josh Allen handles about 90 percent of the offense.

Overvalued Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

WR9 Overall #24

Everyone loves playing with the shiny new toy, and it feels like that’s the case with Wilson when reading other articles endorsing this guy. This young receiver showed some glimpses of brilliance at the end of last season, but this price tag is out of control.

Wilson had some severe bumps like most rookies, recording four or fewer catches in nine games last season. He was also sixth in the NFL with 147 targets, but do we really see him getting many more than that this year? That will happen when you’re the top option on a crappy offense, and we’re not so sure Aaron Rodgers is still a top-notch quarterback. The former MVP has only been a top-5 quarterback once over the last five years. He also failed to make any receiver trustworthy in Green Bay last year, and you’re paying a pretty penny for Wilson to be a top-10 receiver this season.

CeeDee Lamb, DaVante Adams, AJ Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all within 10 picks of Wilson, and it’d be impossible to take the Jets wideout ahead of them with the potential all of those studs possess.

Drake London (WR – ATL)

WR23 Overall #62

There are passing games that you have to fade, and Atlanta is one of them. It looks like Desmond Ridder or Tyler Heinicke will be the starter going into the 2023 season, but that makes this one of the worst passing games in the NFL. That’s scary since Kyle Pitts is expected to be the top target in this offense while the backfield is full of capable runners.

That has us believing this will be a run-first team, which was on full display when Ridder never attempted more than 33 passes in any game last year. That’s a horrifying ceiling because nobody in this offense will get double-digit targets with that sort of philosophy.

It’s not like London was lighting the world on fire either, averaging just 8.6 fantasy points per game last year, despite dominating targets and snap counts in ATL. He was actually third in the NFL with a 29.3 percent team target share, and it’s hard to imagine him dominating the share like that again. We expect this to be one of the NFL’s worst offenses and don’t want anyone from it.

Overvalued Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

TE2 Overall #32

There’s no doubt that Andrews is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, but this price tag is a bit much. The 2021 season is what’s inflated his price because Andrews has never had more than 73 catches or 852 receiving yards in his other four years in the NFL. We’ve also seen the touchdowns go in the wrong direction, picking up nine, seven, and five in each of the last three years.

His bloated 2021 season was also because nobody else was worth throwing to, but that’s not the case in Baltimore anymore. Rashod Bateman is improving by the year, but Odell Beckham‘s signing should limit Andrews’s upside.

This is a run-first team, and losing a target share like that can be devastating for Andrews’ fantasy value. While we expect Andrews to have a solid season, it’s not worth a top-40 pick. Take running backs and wide receivers and fill our tight-end slot with undervalued players like Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, or David Njoku.

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