We still have some time before the NFL season starts, but fantasy football is year-round and early drafters can take advantage of of offseason values. However, drafters should also beware of some players that are overpriced by average draft position. Sleeper is now one of the most popular fantasy football platforms and their ADPs are updated regularly, but there are still some players that look overpriced.
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Overpriced Players to Avoid on Sleeper (Fantasy Football 2023)
Rachaad White (RB – TB): ADP 67.7
The Buccanneers are in a tricky situation. They need to cleanse their cap situation in the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement, but they also have too many good veterans to completely embrace a full rebuild. Instead, they’ll try a soft rebuild in 2023 so they are ready to be more competitive in 2024. With the bleak cap situation, Tampa hasn’t brought in any competition for Rachaad White, who is hoping for a big second year as the lead back. White was a good pass-catcher in 2022, with the third-highest catch rate among all backs who had 50 or more receptions. But it’s fair to consider how much of that was from Tom Brady’s brilliance versus White’s skills. In the ground game, White left much to be desired, ranking 140th in Expected Points Added and 51st in juke rate among backs with 50-plus attempts. Tampa’s offensive line was the source of many of their woes in 2022, and while they have tried to strengthen the unit in recent months, there is still much to be done. It is by no means a sure-thing that White can be more efficient this year and there are still plenty of veteran options on the market that could harm his value, so a sixth-round ADP is a little on the high side.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): ADP 60.3
Sleeper’s ADP for this article is taken from single QB redraft leagues, but you’d be forgiven for thinking this was dynasty ADP when you see Javonte Williams drafted 60th overall. There has been some cause for optimism around Williams, with a few positive reports about his health. But it’s hard to ignore that the Broncos recruited Samaje Perine as a priority and have reportedly been very interested in Dalvin Cook, who is now a free agent. Williams tore his ACL and LCL in October and anyone who drafted JK Dobbins last year will remember how bumpy returns can be from serious knee injuries. On Underdog, DraftKings, FFPC, and Drafters, Williams has an ADP no higher than 80, which makes it incredibly obvious just how poor of a value he looks on Sleeper right now, and that’s before we consider that Sean Payton wants to utilize a two-back approach often.
The Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos are two of the teams that are expected to have an interest in signing running back Dalvin Cook once he officially is released, per sources. There likely will be others, but those two have been monitoring Cook for weeks.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 8, 2023
George Kittle (TE – SF): ADP 45.2
It seems impossible to ignore that George Kittle’s eleven touchdown season in 2022 is a clear outlier when you look at his career, where he had previously never managed to get more than six. Perhaps it’s possible that Brock Purdy utilizes Kittle in a way that Jimmy Garoppolo never did. But it’s also worth noting that Kittle had the second-highest touchdown rate of any tight end with over 50 targets, and in the eight games with no touchdowns, he averaged a woefully disappointing 4.9 half PPR points. That’s not helping anyone who has took him with a fourth-round pick. Kittle dominated opponents who struggled to defend against tight ends, including the Seahawks and Cardinals in particular, with 6 touchdowns scored against them in three games. Kittle also experienced massive differences in his production when Deebo Samuel was missing time, and his half PPR Points Per Game jumped from 9.14 with Samuel playing, all the way up to 18.0 in games Samuel missed. It’s unlikely that Kittle’s ADP drops without an injury, and at this price, he’s overvalued by at least a couple of rounds, making him an easy avoid.
Kittle splits with and without Deebo Samuel last year. #Fade pic.twitter.com/ZooVe5oQJw
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 10, 2023
James Cook (RB – BUF): ADP 81.3
The Buffalo Bills moved on from Devin Singletary this offseason, but nothing they’ve done has suggested that they’re putting all their eggs in a James Cook-shaped basket. Damien Harris was added to the roster and he profiles more like the type of back that the Bills will use in short-yardage situations and around the goal line. Cook is an explosive player who offers aspects Harris can’t, but Cook is by no means an every-down back. He saw only 28.8% of the Buffalo running back touches in 2022 and at this price, we’d need a significant jump from that. Of the running backs being drafted ahead of Cook, only Alexander Mattison saw a smaller workload in 2022. Volume is king for running backs and it’s entirely possible that we’re projecting too much for a player we’ve never seen have it.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): ADP 97.7
When the Bears allowed David Montgomery to move on this offseason, it briefly seemed like the Khalil Herbert truthers were primed to draft him as an RB1. Fast forward a few months and Herbert seems to be entrenched in a three-way running back committee with Roschon Johnson and D’Onta Foreman, who both bring elements that Herbert might not. In particular, Johnson shines in pass protection and Foreman has shown an ability to create big plays. The Bears have said they’re willing to give one player a larger share of the workload if they can show they deserve it, but using Herbert in a league where you have to set a weekly lineup will require a leap of faith to start the season and he’ll always be in danger of Justin Fields stealing the goal-line work.
“You know how things go in the NFL now, they’re doing RB by committee”
Sounds like Khalil Herbert has accepted he won’t be able to keep Roschon Johnson off the field ?
pic.twitter.com/UTbOUoraqw— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) June 1, 2023
Jamaal Williams (TE – NO): ADP 91.6
Another running back who finds himself in a murky situation is Jamaal Williams. It wasn’t long ago that Williams was the 1A in Detroit, rushing for over 1000 yards and scoring a whopping 17 touchdowns as the coaching staff was vindicated for their faith in Williams over Swift. A few months later, Williams has now found his way to New Orleans, where he could be a part of a three-way committee with Alvin Kamara and rookie Kendre Miller. It seems inevitable that an Alvin Kamara suspension will be handed out between now and early August, which would give Williams a chance to stake a reasonable workload in this Saints offense. But we need Williams to score plenty of touchdowns in order to be fantasy viable, and while Williams put on a show around the goal line in Detroit last year, the Saints used Taysom Hill as their preferred option inside the ten-yard line. Hill led the team with 11 carries to Kamara’s eight, and he scored five touchdowns in that area as compared to Kamara’s two. Williams will have a role in this offense, but whether it will be worth a top-hundred pick is very much open for debate.
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