Identifying talented players is one thing, but when you can find talented players and have a massive opportunity for touches, you can strike gold. Whether it’s a running back with the backfield to himself or a wide receiver set to dominate the target market share on his particular team, opportunity is often king in fantasy football.
It’s hard to find players who consistently dominate their team’s targets. NFL teams are constantly churning their rosters and continuing to reload and refill needs through both free agency and the NFL Draft.
Today, we’re breaking down the players set to see their targets decrease in 2023. Planning accordingly and valuing players appropriately who could see their workload diminish is one of the most critical factors in navigating your dynasty leagues.
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2023 Target Regression Candidates
Here are five target regression candidates entering the 2023 fantasy football season.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Johnson dominated receiving targets for the Steelers in 2022. He finished the season with 147 targets (7th NFL), but he only turned those opportunities into 86 receptions, 882 yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. He’s bound to see some positive regression regarding the touchdowns, but I’m fully expecting George Pickens to emerge as the de facto No. 1 WR for the Steelers.
Pickens only saw 84 targets in 2022 but ended with 52 receptions, 801 yards, and four scores. The two players aren’t used in the same way, and Johnson will retain a valuable role for the Steelers’ passing attack, but look for the disparity in targets to be much more even in 2023.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Matt Ryan funneled targets to Pittman in 2022, leading to 141 targets (12th). The Colts’ offense should look slightly different with Anthony Richardson under center, and that will likely lead to some shakeup in the target distribution on this team.
Parris Campbell was second on the team with 91 targets, and, while he departed in free agency, the team also drafted Josh Downs. Second-year player Alec Pierce should also see a bump in targets from the 78 he received in 2022. There’s still an excellent chance that Pittman Jr. paces the Colts in target share for 2023, but I expect him to drop to around 120 targets this season, with Pierce and Downs not far behind.
Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (WR – TB)
This one isn’t so much about either of the Buccaneers’ excellent wide receivers or notable additions made to their position group, but rather the subtraction from the quarterback position to deliver them the ball. We know Tom Brady has retired a second time and the offseason quarterback battle between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask has been anything but inspiring to this point.
Godwin saw 142 targets in 2022 (11th) while Evans saw 127 targets (20th). The Buccaneers threw the ball 751 times – the most of any team in the entire league. Mayfield has never had more than 534 attempts in any season. He’s only gone over 500 attempts once in his career.
Expect the Buccaneers to focus on the ground game to try and protect whoever is under center in 2023. Godwin and Evans are both still excellent players, but expectations in the short term should be tempered slightly.
Zay Jones (WR – JAC)
Surprisingly, Jones had 121 targets in 2022. He was reasonably productive across from Christian Kirk in the process. This one is simple – the options on the receiving depth chart bump Jones down a peg with Calvin Ridley entering the fold.
Ridley is the most logical option to pace the Jaguars in targets, with somewhere around what Kirk saw a season ago (133 targets). Kirk probably ends up in the range of where Jones finished last year while Jones likely slides down to where Marvin Jones was since he departed in free agency (81 targets).
The Jaguars’ passing attack is on the rise, and Jones will still be a part of that. However, he’s a complimentary option moving forward rather than one of the top-two options on his team.
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