I won’t lie — as a fantasy manager, tight ends are my least favorite position. It’s Travis Kelce or bust, so I lean into value picks and prefer to play the waiver wire. But, as a fantasy analyst, I absolutely love evaluating TE2s and TE3s with top-10 upside, and there’s nothing more thrilling than identifying a future waiver wire darling.
Tight ends take time to develop, but this year’s group of second-year tight ends has promising upside and strong value picks. The 2023 breakout tight end could come from this class.
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Second-Year Tight Ends (2023 Fantasy Football)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
Chigoziem Okonkwo bullied his way onto the field and earned a split role in the Titans’ offense last year. Okonkwo started to gain traction in Week 12, and from that point through Week 18, Okonkwo was TE7, averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game in PPR while splitting time with Austin Hooper. With Hooper out of the picture, Oknowko will assume the TE1 role in Tennessee.
The Titans failed to add any significant presence at receiver, and Okonkwo should be the second-leading target recipient behind Treylon Burks. Relying on vacated targets to predict a player’s upside is a slippery slope, and the Titans will still likely use an additional tight end. But the tight ends on the roster have limited receiving upside, and Okonkwo will lead the way.
Note — DeAndre Hopkins is making free agent visits and recently visited the Titans. Hopkins would knock Okonkwo down to the third target recipient, but Okonkwo would still be poised for a breakout season.
Trey McBride (TE – ARI)
Trey McBride took over as the TE1 in Week 10 of 2022 when Zach Ertz suffered a season-ending injury. McBride’s production was unimpressive, finishing as TE19 Weeks 10 through 18. In McBride’s defense, the majority of that time was without Kyler Murray, and the Cardinals’ offense struggled as a whole. Murray could miss time again, and Zach Ertz will likely be available at some point during the season as well. But McBride should have first rights to the TE1 position for the Cardinals and will have a full offseason to prepare.
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)
With the departure of Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson will compete for TE1 in Dallas. The lead tight end for Dallas has been traditionally strong in fantasy, and Schultz was the second-leading pass catcher with 57 receptions on 89 targets and five touchdowns in 2022. The Cowboys spent a second-round pick on Luke Schoonmaker, and while Schoonmaker could be their next TE1, he could take time to develop as a receiver with limited production in college. If the Cowboys opt to slowly integrate Schoonmaker, Ferguson would see the most targets at tight end and have low-end TE1 potential.
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN)
The Broncos’ utilization of the tight end position in 2022 was questionable at best. But there’s a new regime in town, and Greg Dulcich is the clear TE1 for the Broncos. Dulcich finished as TE29 in full PPR due to injuries, but his 8.6 average points per game in PPR is promising for a rookie in arguably the worst offense of 2022. The tight end position in Sean Payton’s offense has been skewed by the presence of Taysom Hill and subpar personnel. But Jared Cook had two strong seasons in New Orleans, particularly through touchdowns, with 16 total touchdowns over two seasons. Dulcich has the profile to be a solid contributor and a good late-round tight end.
Cade Otton (TE – TB)
I’m incredibly weary of the Bucs’ offense in 2023, and while Cade Otton is certainly not my favorite late-round tight end, he’s an intriguing deep option that is often overlooked. Otton split the 2022 season with Cameron Brate and finished as TE26 in PPR. With Brate exiting in free agency, Otton will be the TE1. Tampa Bays’ quarterback situation is still unclear, and the Bucs’ offense will struggle. But if Baker Mayfield wins the starting job, Otton could hold late-round value.
Mayfield spent most of his career in a Cleveland offense that changed coaches at an absurdly rapid rate, but Cleveland’s tight end usage was a constant. Mayfield threw a total of 142 targets to his three primary tight ends in 2021 and 137 targets in 2020. Austin Hooper was the second-leading target recipient in both seasons. If Mayfield struggles to connect with receivers downfield, Otton could be a sneaky dart throw.
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