Today we are looking at players who could see their target share fall this season. Understanding target share is essential because we want players who are the primary option in their offense because they are more likely to see consistent opportunities to get the ball in their hands.
By looking at target share from last season, we can evaluate a player’s involvement in the passing game and assess their potential impact on the field for this coming season. In the case of most of the players listed here, they will see increased competition for targets in 2023, while one (CeeDee Lamb) is going to experience a lot of change offensively. While Lamb can still be a WR1 for the reasons I list below, the other four players on this list have a cloudy outlook.
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2023 Fantasy Football Target Share Fallers
Here are expected target share fallers entering the 2023 NFL season.
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
2022 – 156 Targets (28.7% Target Share)
Although he is coming off a monster 2022 season, I expect some target regression for CeeDee Lamb this season. The bad news (if you want to call it that) is that Dallas brought in Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup should be 100% from the start of camp, meaning there will be more competition for targets. The good news is the departure of Kellen Moore means the Cowboys will look to stretch the field vertically, which plays well to Lamb’s strengths. Gone will be the hitch and curl routes that Moore favored heavily, and Dallas should lean on more play-action. This will get Lamb into space, so while he may not catch 100+ passes again, his ability after the catch could mean more big play potential.
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
2022 – 117 Targets (22.8% Target Share)
Seattle ranked 14th in pass plays per game in 2022, as Geno Smith broke the franchise record with 572 attempts. Tyler Lockett finished second behind D.K. Metcalf with 117 targets on his way to a WR16 finish. Now, however, he will have to contend with both Metcalf and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets, which puts his five-year run as a top-25 receiver in jeopardy. Even with Seattle skewing toward a more pass-heavy game plan, there probably isn’t enough of a raw target share to support Lockett as more than a WR3. He is better viewed as a best-ball target at this point.
Zay Jones (WR – JAC)
2022 – 121 Targets (22% Target Share)
Zay Jones had a terrific 2022 season, setting career bests in receptions (82), targets (121), and yards (823). He finished as the WR31, as the Jaguars’ offense took off under the tutelage of Doug Pederson. Heading into 2023, Jacksonville adds Calvin Ridley to their receiver rotation, which will put a sizable dent into Jones’ target share as they play the same position on the outside. Trevor Lawrence was seventh in passing attempts last season, making it unlikely that there will be more volume to be spread around. Jones should be viewed as a WR4.
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)
2022 – 70 Targets (15.1% Target Share)
One of the most overlooked things with the D’Andre Swift hype train is the questions surrounding how Philadelphia will use him. Swift ranked 10th among running backs in targets last season, and his 15.1% target share put him sixth. The odds of Swift approaching 70 targets this year is virtually nonexistent, however. Last year, the Eagles didn’t use their running backs in the passing game nearly to that effect, and when they did, Kenneth Gainwell (29 targets) was the primary beneficiary. With Gainwell still on the roster and Rashaad Penny to compete with as well, this is a crowded backfield that will probably be an ugly split. Don’t bank on Swift getting a ton of work in the passing game this year.
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
2022 – 108 Targets (20.9% Target Share)
Tyler Higbee was one of the few bright spots in the Rams’ passing offense in 2022. His 108 targets and 72 receptions were both career-bests, and if it weren’t for a lack of touchdowns, he would have finished as a top-10 tight end. Cooper Kupp’s return puts a damper on his 2023 outlook, however. Higbee has never had more than 89 targets in a season where Kupp was healthy for a full complement of games. With Kupp looking like he will be 100% to begin the season, Higbee is a prime target regression candidate.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.