If you are prepping for a draft on RealTime Fantasy Sports, then here are some avoidable players whose values are currently inflated in their rankings.
Over the course of the offseason, you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
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Overpriced Players to Avoid on RTSports (2023 Fantasy Football)
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) | RB2, No. 3 Overall
I am absolutely, certainly, positively not advising you against drafting Saquon Barkley in any capacity. I am strictly advising you against taking Barkley in the top three, or top five, for that matter, of your drafts. Barkley had a great season in 2022, likely the most impactful on-field performance of his career to date, and he made good on any rounds two-three investments by fantasy managers. And yet, in this season where just about everything went right for Saquon, he finished as the RB6 and 12th overall FLEX-eligible player in Half-point PPR scoring.
It’s difficult to imagine him topping that performance in similar surroundings in the Giants’ offense, and the floor is much lower. Aside from his rookie season, where Barkley was given laughably high volume on a putrid Giants team, he hobbled to RB10 and RB32 finishes in 2019 and 2021, respectively. He dealt with injuries in both seasons, yes, but he’s a running back. Playing 13 total games and often not at 100% is par for the course for the position.
Now Barkley will be even warier about avoiding injury than ever heading into a season on the franchise tag (if he even signs the tag at all). We can look back to 2019 when Melvin Gordon reluctantly suited up for the Chargers after an unsuccessful holdout, ending in an RB16 points-per-game finish by Gordon. Or how about looking back to Barkley himself just last season, when midseason extension talks broke down, and he relatedly scored only 40.1 total fantasy points across Weeks 11-14? My point is that Barkley isn’t as reliable as the typical first-round RB, especially in this particular season. His ceiling just isn’t as high as his name recognition.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) | RB20, No. 39 Overall
One of the most common missteps in fantasy football is using a pick in rounds four through six on an unproven running back simply because he sits atop a team’s depth chart. Rachaad White might have proven that he has NFL-caliber hands as a rookie in 2022 – though his 5.8 yards per reception was the lowest figure among all 14 RBs with 45+ receptions – but he’s far from established as a runner.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line did break down in front of him last year, but White also posted some of the worst efficiency stats in the league. He just might not be all that good of a runner, and Tampa Bay’s offense will get worse by transitioning from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. It’s possible for White to post a stat line that rivals Leonard Fournette‘s 2022 production: around 700 rushing yards and 70 receptions. Fournette limped to an RB15 finish, but anyone who rostered Fournette last year could tell you it wasn’t any fun. Just aim higher during the early stages of your drafts.
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI) | RB23, No. 46 Overall
Almost in the opposite situation of White, D’Andre Swift is on a high-powered offense but could enter the season third on the Eagles’ depth chart at running back. You should not assume that Swift will step right into the role vacated by Miles Sanders. Howie Roseman did target him via trade, but the Eagles’ front office regularly rolls the dice on talented players and lives with misses for the hits. Just last year, they gave up a fourth-round pick for Robert Quinn, who made two tackles with zero sacks in 6 games for Philly.
Kenneth Gainwell should have every opportunity to win that job after working behind Sanders for the last two seasons. Rashaad Penny also might be considered the favorite for early-down work too. With the Eagles’ goal-line RB essentially being Jalen Hurts, it’s hard to see where Swift fits into the picture in a way that would lead to meaningful fantasy production. Injuries could change that, sure, but Swift hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health to start his career, either. Swift has always been an overrated fantasy asset who’s buoyed by his pass-catching. The Eagles also seldom target RBs compared to other offenses around the league. Maybe I could get behind taking a flier on Swift, but don’t draft him as a starter in your lineup.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) | WR20, No. 57 Overall
This one’s tough, and I’ll keep it brief. I really appreciate Mike Williams as a player. He’s just not great enough of a fantasy asset to deal with his frequent struggles to stay healthy. 2022 was only the second of Williams’ six career seasons in which he topped 50 receptions and caught 63 balls. The offensive landscape for the Chargers will seemingly change in 2023 with Kellen Moore calling plays and Quentin Johnston joining the receiving corps.
I don’t think either of those developments bode well for Williams’ fantasy stock, though. The offense will likely feature a more balanced attack, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnston get more targets than Williams right from the jump. Williams could put up some big weeks and is always a threat for touchdowns, but WR20 is nearly a true best-case outcome for him at this point.
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