High-stakes fantasy football has seen tremendous growth over the years. What was once considered a high-roller exclusive has now drawn the interest of fantasy football, DFS and gambling enthusiasts alike. Since 2004, the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) has been at the forefront of that conversation. Below we take a look at the most overpriced fantasy football players to avoid in NFFC leagues based on Average Draft Position (ADP).
For the offseason, you can use our ADP tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites and our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based ADP. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
As mentioned in my last article highlighting the best values in NFFC tournaments, “even the slightest of edges can be the difference between a mediocre finish and a profitable one.” That line of thinking works for overpriced players just as well as it does for underpriced ones.
Here are some overpriced players to avoid on NFFC:
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Overpriced Players To Avoid on NFFC (2023 Fantasy Football)
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): ADP 11.13 | ECR 37
Although Patrick Mahomes is included here, I’m not throwing any shade at the best quarterback in the game. Using the past week’s ADP data, almost every quarterback has a higher ADP on NFFC than the FantasyPros ECR due to several factors.
NFFC is a massive tournament with no trades allowed. Securing a top quarterback and having the ability to create high-scoring stacks is encouraged in this format. I could have easily included every elite quarterback on this list, but Mahomes being QB1 with an ADP 25 spots higher than his ECR stands out as an overpriced player on NFFC.
Even so, it’s not an egregious pick. Mahomes is a consistent top-five fantasy quarterback and is one of the safest selections every season. His ADP is just pricey compared to his ECR, which lowers his potential ROI compared to some of his peers.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – FA): ADP 37.88 | ECR 55
DeAndre Hopkins is a perfect example of the sharps trying to get ahead of a possible future ADP bump. Despite being a free agent taking recruiting visits nationwide, the 31-year-old wide receiver has seen his ADP rise to the early fourth-round range.
I love Nuk, so I get it. He’s a dawg! Still, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and is currently being linked to teams employing Ryan Tannehill and Mac Jones as their QB1s. While nothing is set in stone, it looks like Hopkins is understandably valuing one final payday over the opportunity to play with an elite quarterback.
As good as Hopkins is, there are more red flags than green ones right now. Yet, he’s going above Lamar Jackson, Deebo Samuel, Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, Drake London and T.J. Hockenson (among others) in NFFC tournaments over the past week. I think his value is closer to ECR’s ranking than his current NFFC ADP.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF): ADP 145.38 | ECR 174
By most accounts, new Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has a chance to be a special pass-catcher. He’s a fluid route runner, has good hands, and profiles as a big slot receiver in the NFL. I’m confident in saying that Kincaid will be an impact player in the NFL eventually.
There’s just plenty of precedent that says it won’t happen in year one. Tight ends have notoriously struggled to adapt to the NFL game. Only two tight ends (Mike Ditka, Kyle Pitts) have ever eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie in the entire history of the NFL.
Now look at the situation. Being paired with Josh Allen is obviously a massive plus, but Kincaid will be sharing targets with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox in year one. Davis and Knox are replaceable, but the organization has shown unwavering loyalty to both. They will remain involved.
There are plenty of reasons to love Kincaid’s talent and upside. There are also plenty of reasons why it could fail in year one. I’m not saying Kincaid is a bad selection. I’m just trying to temper the expectations for those drafting the rookie tight end 30 spots above his FantasyPros ECR.
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