The cup runneth over for wide receiver talent in the NFL. Gamers aren’t afraid to pull the trigger on the elite options in the first round of half point-per-reception (half PPR) formats. No one needs their arm twisted to pick Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp or the other elite options. Furthermore, their availability to gamers is primarily driven by the luck of the draw in snake drafts. So, they won’t be featured in this piece.
Instead, the two must-have receivers in this space are available after the 45th pick in half PPR formats. So, they’re available to everyone, regardless of their draft slot. A fourth-year wideout with significant changes at quarterback and the offensive coordinator headlines the touted wideouts in this piece. And the second option is a sophomore dart in a high-octane offense.
The cup runneth over for wide receiver talent in the NFL. Gamers aren’t afraid to pull the trigger on the elite options in the first round of half point-per-reception (half PPR) formats. No one needs their arm twisted to pick Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp or the other elite options. Furthermore, their availability to gamers is primarily driven by the luck of the draw in snake drafts. So, they won’t be featured in this piece.
Instead, the two must-have receivers in this space are available after the 45th pick in half PPR formats. So, they’re available to everyone, regardless of their draft slot. A fourth-year wideout with significant changes at quarterback and the offensive coordinator headlines the touted wideouts in this piece. And the second option is a sophomore dart in a high-octane offense.
Must-Have Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin (WR – WSH): 47.7 ADP/50 ECR
McLaurin isn’t a stranger to being a fantasy asset. In three years as a pro, he was the WR20 (11.9 PPG) in half PPR PPG among wideouts who played more than one game in 2020, the WR36 (10.2 PPG) in 2021 and the WR25 (11.0 PPG) in 2022. The speedy wideout has largely made chicken salad out of playing with underwhelming signal callers in his career.
The fourth-year pro was excellent last year from a real-life perspective. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 97 wideouts targeted at least 40 times in the regular season and postseason, McLaurin was 15th in PFF’s receiving grade, 16th in Yards per Route Run (2.04 Y/RR), tied for 15th in Yards After the Catch per Reception (5.1 YAC/REC) and tied for the 21st-deepest average depth of target (13.1-yard aDOT). In addition, PFF credited McLaurin with 17 contested catches on 26 contested targets. He’s hauled in 68 contested catches on 121 contested targets in his career. McLaurin did it all. His ability to blend generating yards after the catch with being targeted deep was a rare combination. McLaurin’s track record of fighting to secure contested targets should also help him earn his quarterback’s trust this year.
McLaurin didn’t just shine in PFF’s measures. Per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), McLaurin was also 18th in Target Share (22.7%) and 12th in Intended Air Yards (1,580) in the regular season. Thus, he earned targets at a high rate and piled up air yards. Ideally, the quality of McLaurin’s targets and air yards will improve with the quarterback and offensive coordinator changes.
Sam Howell is opening camp as Washington’s No. 1 quarterback. The Commanders chose Howell with the 144th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He had a chance to get his feet wet in the preseason but only appeared in the regular-season finale. Howell completed 11 of 19 attempts against the Cowboys for 168 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The sample is tiny, and the jury is still out for Howell.
Fortunately for McLaurin, if Howell struggles mightily, Jacoby Brissett waits in the wings as a competent or better safety net. Brissett earned the highest PFF passing grade, big-time-throw percentage and QB Rating of his career last season. Brissett had PFF’s 12th-highest passing grade among quarterbacks who dropped back at least 300 times in the regular season and postseason.
The veteran quarterback’s best season as a pro allowed Amari Cooper to perform at a high level. Out of 93 receivers targeted at least 30 times in Brissett’s starts (Week 1 through Week 12), Cooper was 13th in PFF’s receiving grade and 14th in Yards per Route Run (2.17 Y/RR). He was also WR13 in half PPR PPG (13.5)
Hiring Eric Bienemy as the team’s offensive coordinator is another crucial change for Washington’s offense. Bienemy wasn’t the play caller for the Chiefs. However, he had a hand crafting the offense as the club’s offensive coordinator. It’s unlikely Bienemy will copy and paste Kansas City’s tendencies to Washington since Patrick Mahomes didn’t join him on the Commanders. Nevertheless, Washington might play faster and pass more than they have during McLaurin’s career to this point.
According to Football Outsiders, the Commanders were 14th, 20th and 31st in situation-neutral pace in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Conversely, from 2020 through 2022, the Chiefs were seventh, third and third in situation-neutral pace. The Commanders also didn’t pass much. Per nfelo app, in the previous three years, Washington was 11th (0.6%), 22nd (-3.2%) and tied for 27th (-7.6%) in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Meanwhile, the Chiefs were first (9.5%), first (9.5%) and first (10.8%) in PROE. Again, Mahomes isn’t walking through the door for the Commanders. Nevertheless, Bienemy could inject some life into Washington’s offense by speeding things up and nudging the play-calling tendencies closer to midpack in PROE.
Thus, McLaurin’s average draft position (ADP) as the WR21 doesn’t bake in much of his upside potential. And even if the status quo remains for McLaurin, he shouldn’t bust. But suppose Bienemy helps either Howell or Brissett clear the low bar set by the motley crew of quarterbacks who’ve guided Washington’s offense during McLaurin’s three-year career. In that case, he can significantly overperform his ADP.
Skyy Moore (WR – KC): 142.0 ADP/146 ECR
Kansas City’s speedy and pass-happy offense discussed above in McLaurin’s write-up is a substantial part of the reason to invest in Moore at his dart-throw cost. The Chiefs pass more than anyone and play fast. And, of course, catching passes from Mahomes is a boon for any of his pass-catchers.
Sadly, Moore didn’t have many opportunities to catch passes from Mahomes as a rookie. The Chiefs chose Moore in the second round of last year’s draft. They didn’t force him into the mix, though. According to PFF, Moore ran only 208 routes and had 41 targets, 27 receptions, 267 receiving yards and one touchdown reception in 18 games in the regular season and postseason. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (643 routes in 20 games), JuJu Smith-Schuster (608 in 19), Justin Watson (330 in 19) and Mecole Hardman (209 in nine) were ahead of Moore. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are out of the picture this year after leaving in free agency, leaving ample playing time up for grabs.
Kadarius Toney should see an uptick in playing time. The team also spent another second-round pick in this year’s draft on a wideout, selecting Rashee Rice. So, there are competitors to fill the vacancies. Still, Toney hasn’t proven to be a nuanced route runner or a well-rounded wideout, and Rice is a rookie.
Matt Harmon from Yahoo! Fantasy and the creator of Reception Perception recently released his player profile for Toney. Sadly, Toney’s profile for his work in 2022, which Harmon and James Koh also discussed on the Reception Perception podcast, wasn’t glowing. That’s not to say Toney didn’t earn any praise from Harmon. But Toney’s lousy success rates against man, zone and press coverage cast doubt on his ability to be a high-volume option in Kansas City’s passing attack. Head coach Andy Reid has an elite offensive mind and puts his players in a position to succeed. However, Harmon’s profile for Toney left me feeling like the third-year pro might be a souped-up replacement for Hardman instead of a volume replacement for Smith-Schuster.
Moore might not be a one-for-one replacement for Smith-Schuster. However, Harmon’s profile for Moore provided more encouragement for Moore to serve as a well-rounded wide receiver. First, Moore earned higher success rate grades from Harmon for man, zone and press coverage than Toney. Second, Moore earned targets at a stellar rate in his limited opportunities. Third, Moore was moved around the alignment, getting a crash course in multiple roles.
Moore had a steep learning curve leaping from a non-Power Five program (Western Michigan) to Reid’s NFL offense. And one season of limited work shouldn’t cause gamers to throw out Moore’s collegiate production. According to PFF, Moore was tied for PFF’s second-highest receiving grade among 251 FBS wideouts targeted at least 50 times in 2021. He was also tied for 14th in targets (125), 10th in receptions (94), 14th in receiving yards (1,291), eighth in Yards per Route Run (3.40 Y/RR), tied for 94th in Yards After the Catch per Reception (5.7 YAC/REC) and tied for 19th in touchdown receptions (10). Moore was also versatile, playing 34.5% of his snaps in the slot and 65.3% wide in 2021, per PFF.
Predictably, Moore is more comfortable this season than he was during this time in the NFL calendar as a rookie. Positive camp reports are the norm and should always be taken with a grain of salt. Still, positive reports are better than the alternative. Moore is far from a sure thing to become a fantasy asset this year. But it’s a good process to throw darts at young players with a path to the field in high-octane offenses. So, instead of taking wideouts with a similar ADP to Moore, such as K.J. Osborn (136.0), Adam Thielen (137.3) and Rondale Moore (138.0), roll the dice on Kansas City’s second-year wide receiver.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
