The NFL season is quickly approaching! There are many players who are going to fluctuate in value between now and the season starting.
Yet, there are currently 15 players who stand out for their value in the first 15 rounds of drafts.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
ADP Player Values for Each Round (Fantasy Football 2023)
Round 1: Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Cooper Kupp was the WR2 in points per game last season, despite playing on a terrible Rams offense, but that wasn’t enough for fantasy managers who are now letting him slip to the middle of the first round. While Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson face competition from very good players on their offenses, Kupp has to compete with the likes of Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. Last year Kupp was one of three receivers to boast a 30% target share across the league, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he led all receivers in that metric and many others this year.
Round 2: Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Tony Pollard was the RB7 in 2022, averaging 16.5 PPR points per game on only 15.0 touches per game, which was the 26th most touches among all backs. Pollard was ridiculously efficient and will no longer need to be quite so efficient, with Ezekiel Elliott‘s 17.1 touches per game now vacant. We’ve seen Pollard be explosive and efficient, now we can see him become truly dominant.
Round 3: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
People will point to the Patriots’ propensity for leaning on multiple running backs as a way to talk down Rhamondre Stevenson. It is true that in the last 22 years, there have been only seven instances of a Patriots running back having a 50% opportunity share or higher. Yet, in that period, there has also been a total of 13 running backs to average 15 or more touches per game, and that would actually be a regression for Stevenson from last year’s 16.8. The Patriots have very little behind Stevenson and nobody who can steal a large workload from him. Even if Stevenson has to give up a few touches to another back, there’s a good chance this offense allows him to score more than the six touchdowns he had in 2022.
Round 4: Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
Deebo Samuel feels like the perfect post-hype player to take chances on this year after he delivered a disappointing follow-up to his 2021 WR3 campaign. Samuel seemed to be Brock Purdy‘s preferred target on many occasions, and Samuel saw barely any drop-off in opportunities after Christian McCaffrey was acquired, putting up 8.0 touches per game before and 7.8 afterward, even while dealing with injuries. We’ve seen Samuel be a league-winner before, and perhaps he can be again, this time at a two-round discount on last year’s price.
Round 5: J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
2022 was a disappointing year for J.K. Dobbins, who struggled to get past his 2021 ACL, LCL and Meniscus injuries. However, there were signs of light down the stretch, with Dobbins leading the league in rushing yards between Weeks 14-17 with 397. He rushed for a rate of 7.0 yards per carry and also led the league in runs of 20 yards or more with seven. Dobbins has only averaged 11.2 touches per game so far in his career, but it’s fair to point out that circumstances have largely been against him. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken being a fan of the screen game, it’s possible we see a different Dobbins in 2023.
Round 6: Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Kyler Murray‘s recovery from a torn ACL and Meniscus seems to be well on track, and even if he does miss some playing time Marquise Brown could be positioned well to benefit from DeAndre Hopkins‘s release from the Cardinals. Brown showed versatility at times last year, being deployed near the line of scrimmage in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal air raid attack. While Brown may struggle against elite cornerbacks, he could see a 30% target share on a team with a terrible defense, forcing the offense into pass-heavy scripts. That seems like a good thing for fantasy football.
Round 7: David Montgomery (RB – DET)
It seemed likely that Jamaal Williams would stay with a Lions team that truly loved him on and off the field after he rushed for over 1,000 rushing yards and accrued 17 touchdowns last year. However, free agency often throws up surprises, and now Williams is in New Orleans, and David Montgomery has made his way from Chicago to Detroit. Montgomery seems like the perfect replacement for a between-the-20s runner who can pick up the yardage the Lions’ excellent offensive line allows. Montgomery could potentially be the back who takes the majority of the 34 inside the five looks that Williams got, which was 15 more than any other player.
Round 8: Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
The Commanders create so many headlines off the field that it went rather unheralded how good a rookie season Jahan Dotson had in 2022, finishing with six performances of 16 or more PPR points. There are question marks at quarterback, but with Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings, Dotson feels like a fun bet to make for 2023.
Round 9: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Anthony Richardson will likely be on the field early and often this year, and for fantasy, he can be a Week 1 starter. In Richardson’s final year with the Florida Gators, he averaged 8.5 rush attempts per game, which would have put him behind only Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson last season. Since the start of the 2000 season, there have been 104 instances of a quarterback rushing for an average of 5.0 attempts per game, and 44 (41.9%) of those players had an average point per game of 18 or higher. That is equivalent to QB11 in 2022, right about where Richardson is being drafted. 46.6% of quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 or more rush attempts had at least seven top-12 weekly performances per season, and those are the results we really want at QB.
Round 10: Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
As mentioned with Dobbins, this is a new offense, and the words that keep coming up in reports are pace and verticality. Monken will stretch the field and utilize players like Greg Roman never did. Odell Beckham Jr. is the highest-paid receiver on the Ravens, but he’s much more likely to be used in situational plays and in the red zone than Bateman, who likely leads the position in snaps. Bateman’s career has been interrupted by injuries, but he has a good chance to be healthy in time for the season. In the words of Lamar Jackson, he’s “WR1.”
Round 11: Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
In case you don’t remember, Geno Smith went to the Pro Bowl in 2022, and now he’s signed a contract that ties him to the Seahawks for, at a minimum, this year as the starter. Last year Smith had a QB rating of 105.3, which was behind only Tua Tagovailoa, and his 26 passing touchdowns were the fourth-most in the league. With an additional weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith looks like one of the best double-digit round quarterbacks.
Round 12: Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)
Rondale Moore is often thought of as a pure slot receiver, but he did play on 39% of 2-WR sets during games he was active last year. New head coach Jonathan Gannon has talked about wanting to get Moore involved more vertically. If Moore plays on 2-WR sets consistently and is out there when Murray is healthy, it could be a fun time for fantasy football, with the Cardinals’ defense looking like they’ll put the offense in plenty of pass-heavy scripts.
Round 13: Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
At a certain point, there could be too many Cardinals in this article, but we can squeeze one more in because Murray absolutely looks like a value here. Murray has averaged 6.8 rush attempts per game throughout his four-year career in the NFL, along with 0.41 rushing touchdowns per game. This averages out to over six fantasy points per week before we consider Murray’s passing work. This has helped Murray to average 20.0 fantasy points per game over the last two years. If we are forced to reduce that rushing number by 50%, we’re still looking at 17 points per game, which is a healthy number for a quarterback in this range.
Round 14: Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)
Normally tight ends who perform above expectation pick up more steam than this, yet Juwan Johnson seems to be suppressed by Taysom Hill‘s shadow. Travis Kelce, Hill and George Kittle were the only tight end-eligible players to score more touchdowns than Johnson’s seven in 2022.
Round 15: Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
Matthew Stafford looks to be healthy ahead of a make-or-break season for him and the Rams. Last year, Stafford struggled behind an offensive line that was a mess and led to him being sacked at a career-high rate of 27% on plays where pressure was generated by the defense. When Stafford was kept safe by his line, his clean pocket completion rate was 72.4%, identical to 2021. Even when pressured, Stafford’s completion rate jumped to a career-high 54.7%. If the Rams’ defense is as bad as expected, Stafford could be put in fantasy-friendly, pass-heavy scripts often.
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