Rookies often carry unrealistic expectations into their first seasons in the NFL, but by the time we get to their second year, we have a better understanding of the player and also how the player’s team views them. With dynasty being a game where we always have to be mindful of market fluctuations, now is a good time to consider what will be a success or failure for these second-year players.

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James Cook (BUF) – RB30

Since the Bills drafted James Cook with the 63rd overall pick in 2022’s draft, much has changed in the Buffalo running back room. Neither Zack Moss or Devin Singletary are still with the team, but the Bills did seek to add running backs this offseason, with both Damien Harris and Latavius Murray added to the position. Harris is an excellent goal-line back, and Murray showed in Denver last year that he can still be a solid between-the-tackles runner. Cook is no doubt the most electric of the trio, and he’s going to need to be in order to pay off in fantasy, otherwise, he could lose just enough touches to Harris and Murray that he’ll not get the volume we need for an every week starter, and that’s before we consider Josh Allen’s rushing production.

Greg Dulcich (DEN) – TE11

Injuries marred what looked like an impressive rookie season for Greg Dulcich, who dazzled when he made the starting lineup with three top-12 weekly finishes in consecutive weeks. Dulcich displayed an ability to win near the line of scrimmage and downfield. Now with Sean Payton as the Broncos head coach, this offense should take a step forward, and while trade rumors continue to swirl around Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, Dulcich might just be the most reliable piece of this offense.

Jelani Woods (IND) – TE22

If Jelani Woods was on another team, it might be easier to hope for a second-year breakout after a rookie season with some eye-catching performances. Woods finished as a top-five tight end on two occasions: a two-touchdown performance in Week 3 and then an eight-catch 98-yard haul in Week 12. Unfortunately for Woods, outside of those two games, he had only 15 catches across the rest of the season with the Colts struggling and utilizing a three tight end room with Woods, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson. The Colts might be a better offense in 2022, but with all three tight ends brought back for 2023, it seems unlikely that Woods can command a consistent volume of targets, and occasional spike weeks might be the very best fantasy managers could hope for. In managed leagues, it will be hard to ever predict which weeks Woods will be worth starting.

There are 3 TE’s who averaged 1.50+ YPRR this year, age 26 or younger, priced outside the Top-100:

⁃ David Njoku
⁃ Chigoziem Okonkwo
⁃ Jelani Woods

BUY. BUY. BUY.

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) March 21, 2023

Isiah Pacheco (KC) – RB28

Given that Isiah Pacheco’s draft capital was virtually non-existent, it could be argued that he delivered the best production versus the investment required of all 2022 rookies. The Chiefs selected Pacheco in the seventh round of the 2022 draft, and he made an instant impression for them in training camp, steadily bypassing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be the Chiefs RB1. Now the test for Pacheco becomes whether he can sustain his level of success and prove that draft capital doesn’t matter. In recent years we’ve seen other later draft pick running backs such as James Robinson, Michael Carter, and Tyler Allegier fail to convince their teams that they are the long-term answers, but the Chiefs are still suffering from having their hands burned by Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round, so perhaps they’re more open to a late round running back taking over than other teams. For dynasty purposes, when it comes to running backs, if you’re not a contender, it’s always time to move them on, particularly if you can get a first-round pick in exchange for Pacheco.

Skyy Moore (KC) – WR57

The Chiefs have so far made very few additions to a wide receiver room that looked thin in 2022 and has since lost JuJu Smith-Schuster. Skyy Moore looks like a suitable candidate to pick up some of the slot receiver snaps left in Smith-Schuster’s wake, having spent 47.9 percent of his snaps there in 2022, and the Chiefs would welcome a leap in second-year production from him. During the regular season, Moore had zero touchdowns and only one target inside the red zone, scoring his only touchdown in the Super Bowl. Any player playing with Patrick Mahomes should be considered a good bet to score five touchdowns a year, and it would not surprise to see Moore achieve that in 2023. If you can buy low on Moore for a pair of mid-third-round picks, then it has the potential to turn into a greater return if he can show some of the promises many had hoped for.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – RB3

If it wasn’t for the small matter of a torn ACL, it seemed inevitable that Breece Hall would have had a true breakout season in his rookie campaign and been one of the biggest fantasy stars of last year. Hall scored an average of 16.4 PPR points, making him the RB8 in fantasy points per game. This was after the Jets slowly introduced him over the first two weeks of the season, giving him 20 total touches and an average of 37 percent of the running back opportunities before unleashing him with 63 percent of the work over the rest of his healthy games. Hall’s ACL tear was much more straightforward than the likes of JK Dobbins, and all indications are that Hall should pick up where he left off with his impressive start. The time to buy low on Hall is well and truly in the rear window.

Aaron Jones with Nathaniel Hackett as OC

Rank in Perimeter Routes Run among RBs

5th
4th
6th

This is a Breece Hall Tweet.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 26, 2023

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – WR5

Despite the turmoil surrounding the Jets quarterback situation, Garrett Wilson managed to have a very solid rookie season, scoring four of the Jets’ 15 passing touchdowns and finishing with over 1000 receiving yards. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback in 2023, we can be safe in our assumptions that the whole passing offense will take a step forward. Rodgers has averaged 30 passing touchdowns per year when playing as the starting quarterback, and he should have no problem elevating Garrett Wilson to the next level. If you’re pessimistic about Rodgers’ range of outcomes, then now is an ideal time to sell Wilson with his value sky-high, and in Superflex leagues, he’ll cost as much as the 1.02 in rookie drafts.

Kenny Pickett (PIT) – QB21

Things could have been easier for Kenny Pickett in his rookie season if the Steelers hadn’t waited for such a tough run of games to give him his first action. Pickett started his career facing the Jets, Bills, Buccanneers, Dolphins, Eagles, Saints, and Bengals in his first seven games. This set of games against good defenses yielded three passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Pickett threw a paltry total of six touchdowns across his 12 total games in the fantasy season, never managing more than one touchdown in a single game. Pickett’s low touchdown rate of 1.7 percent was the 660th lowest rate among quarterbacks to start 10 games or more since the year 2000, that is from a total sample size of 679. The odds are heavily in Pickett’s favor that he sees positive touchdown regression this year, and as such, he is a good dynasty buy-low option who may be available for a late first-round pick or for a combination such as the 2.04 and 3.01 in Superflex leagues. For an every-week starter, that’s quite palatable.

George Pickens (PIT) – WR34

The Cult Status of George Pickens leads to quite extreme views one way or another, and the fairest assessment might be to say that we saw glimpses of a bright future but also a complete lack of consistency in Pickens’s rookie year when he finished as WR57 in PPR points per game and had eight games with less than 7.5 PPR points. Pickens earned 4.9 targets per game, but from Week 7 onwards never had more than five catches in a game. The Steelers will likely benefit from positive touchdown regression this year, but Pickens still carries with him some risk that he’ll not pay off his cost, which at the moment is the same as a late first. If you’re a rebuilding side, it might be best to move on and hope whatever first-round pick you get for Pickens turns into a high one in 2024.

Couple of things here:
1. This inside spin by Maxx Crosby. Quickly became one of my favorite players to watch in the league
2. This adjustment by George Pickens. 3rd in the NFL in contested catches (19 catches on 28 contested targets, 3rd in the NFL) pic.twitter.com/jaTb50Ac3j

— JP Acosta (Pug Dederson Stan Acct) (@acosta32_jp) June 26, 2023

Khalil Shakir (BUF) – WR83

Of all of the players on this list, perhaps nobody played a smaller role as Khalil Shakir did in his rookie season, averaging only 30.1 percent of snaps and totaling 30.3 PPR points across the entire season, with 16.5 of those coming in Week 5. Shakier averaged 59.6 percent of his snaps from the slot, an area of the field where he could be used more prominently this year with Isaiah McKenzie released. Shakir is a very low-cost target who could increase his value dramatically if he regularly plays in three wide receiver sets.

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