There are several dynasty startup draft strategies. They all have strengths and weaknesses, but the only bad strategy is not having one at all. However, my favorite dynasty draft strategy is the win in year two or tank the first year strategy.
While some like to compete early on, I like taking the long-term approach. With this draft strategy, you can build yourself a multiple-year contender and an elite team. However, the win-in-year-two strategy takes patience and discipline.
This draft strategy requires you to avoid making win-now moves despite the temptation. With this strategy, you spend the startup draft and the first year focused on the future. Then, you start competing in the second year. Let’s look at what you need to do during the startup draft to succeed with this strategy.
Win-in-Year-Two Approach Startup Strategy
The Basics
Before you start your draft, be aware of a few things. First, is it a slow draft with an eight-hour or longer timer or a quick draft with a two-minute timer? Most startup dynasty drafts have at least an eight-hour timer. However, check your league settings so you’re not caught off guard.
There are several dynasty startup draft strategies. They all have strengths and weaknesses, but the only bad strategy is not having one at all. However, my favorite dynasty draft strategy is the win in year two or tank the first year strategy.
While some like to compete early on, I like taking the long-term approach. With this draft strategy, you can build yourself a multiple-year contender and an elite team. However, the win-in-year-two strategy takes patience and discipline.
This draft strategy requires you to avoid making win-now moves despite the temptation. With this strategy, you spend the startup draft and the first year focused on the future. Then, you start competing in the second year. Let’s look at what you need to do during the startup draft to succeed with this strategy.
Win-in-Year-Two Approach Startup Strategy
The Basics
Before you start your draft, be aware of a few things. First, is it a slow draft with an eight-hour or longer timer or a quick draft with a two-minute timer? Most startup dynasty drafts have at least an eight-hour timer. However, check your league settings so you’re not caught off guard.
Second, can you make trades during the draft? How far into the future can you trade rookie picks? Usually, startup dynasty drafts are slow, allowing everyone to make trades while on the clock. Dynasty leagues typically let you trade future picks three years out.
Third, make sure you know the starting lineup requirements, the number of bench spots, the scoring system, and if there will be a taxi squad. These four things will impact how you draft. For example, you will want to target quarterbacks sooner in a Superflex league than in a 1QB league.
The First Year Doesn’t Matter
Remind yourself throughout the startup draft that the first year doesn’t matter. While your league mates are making moves to add early draft picks or big-name players, remember you want to lose as many games as possible in the first year.
You should view every loss in the first year as a win for your team. The worse you do in year one, the better your draft rookie picks the next year will be. Most important of all, do NOT trade away ANY of your rookie picks. If the plan is to tank your first year in the league, you don’t want to trade away any rookie picks. Instead, you want to add more of them.
Trading Back is Your Best Friend
Speaking of rookie picks, the more, the better. The best time to acquire rookie picks is during the startup draft, as your league mates will be focused on the draft now and not the one a year, two, or three from now. Furthermore, you want to move back during the startup draft since you want to lose in year one.
Depending on how much experience your league mates have playing dynasty fantasy football, you could pull off some massive trade wins. For example, if you can add a future first-round rookie pick by swapping your third-round startup pick for their fifth-round startup pick, that’s a deal you should smash accept on. Another reason you should trade back and add rookie picks is their future worth.
I love the Family Guy video about the mystery box and the boat because it perfectly depicts living in the moment and not thinking about the future. Your opponents will be more willing to trade away rookie picks during the startup draft than later in the year. Not only are they useful in building up your team for the future, but rookie picks are also excellent buy-low and sell-high trade assets.
As the rookie draft approaches months later, your league mates will want to add picks. If you have plenty to spare, you can take advantage of trade negotiations. Even if you keep all your extra rookie picks, that is good for your team. You will have plenty of chances to add youth to your team while your league mates see their team get a year older.
Put a Priority on Getting a Star QB and TE
Drafting a star quarterback and tight end could be critical, depending on your roster construction and league scoring. If your league is a Superflex or two-quarterback league, you want to spend your first or second-round pick on a quarterback, maybe even both.
The elite young quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert won’t make it out of the first round. If you wait until the second round, grab a quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields. You will want your QB1 slot to be a weekly advantage for you for the next several years.
If your league has tight end premium scoring, you need to know how much the premium is. Some leagues have a premium of an extra half-point per catch, while others have up to 1.25 points more per catch. The bigger the premium, the more emphasis you want to put on drafting a tight end early, even at the expense of drafting a quarterback.
While quarterbacks are the most valuable position in the NFL, the depth at the position is deep for fantasy football. On the other hand, there are only a few elite tight ends. Furthermore, Travis Kelce was a league winner last year. If your league is Superflex and tight end premium, don’t be afraid to spend your first three picks on a tight end and a pair of quarterbacks.
Draft Young Wide Receivers
While you shouldn’t have a hard and fast rule of “don’t draft a wide receiver older than X years old,” you want to target younger wide receivers. Ideally, you want a mix of proven young wide receivers and wide receivers who are potential breakout stars. If you draft young stars like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase early in your draft, target wide receivers with upside in the middle rounds. Some potential mid-round wide receivers to target are Marquise Brown, Kadarius Toney, and Jahan Dotson.
All three could break out this year after having mixed results in 2022. However, this doesn’t mean only target receivers on their rookie contracts. Wide receivers like Davante Adams, who turns 31 in December, and Tyreek Hill, who recently turned 29, are still quality early-round draft picks.
Running Backs Don’t Matter
Of course, running backs matter, but their short shelf life makes them not very critical. With a win-in-year-two approach, you don’t want to target running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. While they were the top two scoring running backs in 2022, they are older players. They likely will remain elite players in 2023 and possibly 2024, but they don’t have many elite years left in their careers. Instead, you want to pass on running backs over the first few rounds while focusing on other positions.
However, don’t be afraid to take veteran running backs in the middle rounds. When you hit the double-digit rounds, it’s about upside and potential trade value. Your league mates will likely avoid drafting Joe Mixon and James Conner, given their age and public opinion. Yet, both players were top 20 running backs in 2022. You could get one of these veterans in the 12th or later round and turn it into a second-round rookie pick. A contending team will need a running back during the season and will be willing to part with a rookie draft choice.
Meanwhile, you want to target several upside running backs in the middle rounds, like Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco. Both running backs will be mid-round draft selections since they were Day 3 NFL Draft picks last year. However, both had promising rookie seasons and likely will be the lead running back again in 2023 despite splitting the backfield with an annoying veteran. You also want to target high-upside handcuffs/co-starters, like Brian Robinson Jr. and Elijah Mitchell.
Not only are they great trade chips if the lead guy gets hurt, but both also have the potential to turn into this year’s version of Rhamondre Stevenson. If you had drafted the New England star running back last year in the double-digit rounds, you would have an RB1 on your roster at a massive discount.
Potential Draft Targets
Here are eight of my favorite players to target when using the Win-in-Year-Two startup draft strategy this year.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.