There’s only one undefeated club after three weeks this year, and they’re the most fun source of offense. However, other clubs have eye-catching DFS picks. Things are coming into clearer focus, albeit with the occasional surprising change. Thus, the DFS suggestions are narrowed this week more than in previous weeks.
Quarterbacks
The Stars' offensive intentions are DFS-friendly. They're the most pass-happy team in the USFL.
This Philadelphia Stars offense hasn't given us the slate-breaking performances we've hoped for but they're absolutely coming:
* 71.7% situation-neutral pass rate
* 4-WR sets on 55.6% of snapsCorey Coleman:
* 89.6% route participation
* 26.9% tgt share
* 37.5% Air Yards— Cody Main (@cmain7) May 4, 2023
Unfortunately, Case Cookus has made inaccurate throws and has constantly been under duress behind a struggling offensive line. Can Bart Andrus help Cookus with quick hitters and screen passes to slow the pass rush? Maybe. Regardless, betting on the volume is enticing.
The Breakers are the last undefeated team, and the offense is a juggernaut. They've scored the most points (105) in the league. Furthermore, McLeod Bethel-Thompson is first in passing yards per game (279.0) and second in passing touchdowns (six). He's also thrown only one interception and taken just five sacks. So, Bethel-Thompson is the top quarterback this week.
DeAndre Johnson's stock is soaring after he played all of New Jersey's snaps at the position last week. The speedy quarterback is sixth in the USFL in rushing yards per game (51.7). Yet, he's also thrown for 309 yards, tossing two touchdowns and running for one. If he's not ceding passing snaps, Johnson's ceiling is massive. Still, he's best used as a volatile pick in tournaments, offering cap savings as a bonus.
Running Backs
Reggie Corbin was shaken up late in Michigan's loss last week. So, gamers must keep tabs on Corbin's health entering this week's contest. The explosive running back is in a smash spot if he's healthy enough to play, though. The Showboats have coughed up 132.3 rushing yards per game, despite playing Philadelphia's pass-happy offense in Week 1. Meanwhile, Corbin has averaged 66.0 rushing yards per game at a blistering 7.1 yards per carry, adding two rushing touchdowns, 12 receptions and 55 receiving yards. Corbin's dynamism makes him a tournament option, even in a backfield committee with Stevie Scott.
Wes Hills is the top running back, and it's not close between him and anyone else. In two games, he's rushed for 301 yards and six touchdowns. Hills also has six receptions and 33 receiving yards. The underlying data is nuts, too.
The 28.4 and 25.4 weighted opportunity points Wes Hills has earned over his last two games are the best and 3rd-best single-game marks by a spring football RB ever. https://t.co/5lkAULmHtG
— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) May 4, 2023
Mark Thompson also popped on Jake Tribbey's weighted opportunity table. The bruising runner made his season debut last week after working as Houston's primary running back in 2022. T.J. Pledger looms as a threat to a bell-cow gig for Thompson, but Thompson's salary is too low after last week's blowup. Thompson rumbled for 80 yards and two touchdowns. He also hauled in three receptions for 32 yards on five targets.
The matchup is tantalizing for him this week. The Stars have surrendered the third-most rushing yards per game (125.3). Thompson should be busy and easily pay off his modest salary.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Sage Surratt's salary has climbed but remains too low for his mouthwatering usage. The former wideout is second in targets (26), first in receptions (20) and first in receiving yards per game (85.7) in the USFL. He's also scored one touchdown.
Jonathan Adams is also a stellar piece of exposure to New Orleans' high-octane offense. In Week 3, he led the Breakers in receptions (six) and receiving yards (75) while tying for the team lead in targets (six) and touchdown receptions (one).
Corey Coleman's dominant usage was noted in Cody Main's linked tweet above. Repeating it, Coleman's participated in 89.6% of Philadelphia's routes and amassed a 26.9% target share while accounting for 37.5% of their Air Yards. Coleman's converted his dreamy role into 19 receptions, 70.3 receiving yards per game and a touchdown.
Chris Rowland returned to Philadelphia's pass-happy offense last week after a one-week absence with a hamstring injury. He was an integral part of the offense in Week 1 and a modest contributor last week. Another week healthier, he could be the key to keeping Cookus upright as a reliable short-area option from the slot. Rowland also adds value by moonlighting in the backfield as a runner.
Jace Sternberger and Davion Davis are the crown jewels of Birmingham's passing attack. Sternberger's scored a touchdown in all three games while securing 13 receptions for 218 receiving yards. The underlying data is desirable and has him popping in Establish The Runs' optimizer.
Stallions TE Jace Sternberger is appearing in 30.4% of our top Week 4 optimal lineups. How confident should we be?
* 85.2% route participation
* 22.1% target share
* 27.2% Air Yards share
* 2.53 YPRR
* Team-high (4) RZ targets— Cody Main (@cmain7) May 4, 2023
Davis is second on the Stallions in targets (14), receptions (11), receiving yards per game (65.7) and touchdown receptions (two). Since catching only one pass for seven scoreless yards in the opener, Davis has had four receptions for 47 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2 and five for 123 and one in Week 3. His snap and route rates were also pristine last week.
Birmingham Stallions
(Snap %, Route %)Alex McGough - 95.6%, -
Jalen Morton - 4.4%, -
CJ Marable - 68.9%, 56.7%
ZaQuandre White - 40%, 33.3%
Deon Cain - 51.1%, 60%
Myron Mitchell - 53.3%, 63.3%
Austin Watkins - 48.9%, 43.3%
Davion Davis - 93.3%, 96.7%— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) May 1, 2023
J'Mon Moore and Braedon Bowman round out the wideouts and tight ends as the best stacking options with Johnson, doubling as useful one-off punts. Moore has been quiet, earning only seven targets and catching four passes for 22 yards. However, he paced the Generals' pass-catchers in snap share and route participation in Week 3.
New Jersey
DeAndre Johnson - 100%
Darius Victor - 52.4%, 12.5%
Trey Williams - 47.6%, 18.8%
Alonzo Moore - 78.6%, 62.5%
Cam Echols-Luper - 45.2%, 68.8%
Marcus Green - 28.6%, 12.5%
J'Mon Moore - 95.2%, 75%— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) May 2, 2023
Moore could continue to get his steps in running wind sprints. Or his steady diet of snaps and routes could result in what would be a surprise performance based on his box-score data.
Bowman never left the field last week. He isn't strictly a pass-catching tight end. Nevertheless, Bowman has had 12 targets, seven receptions and 32.7 receiving yards per game this season. He's a big-bodied target for Johnson and more than a catch-and-fall tight end. Instead, this season, 71 of Bowman's 98 receiving yards have come after the catch. So, gamers shouldn't sleep on him, despite his minimum salary.
Defense and Special Teams
The Stallions couldn't ask for a better bounceback matchup after losing to New Orleans and their elite offense. The Maulers have scored a USFL-low 39 points this year. Furthermore, they scored their first and only offensive touchdown last week. The Maulers will struggle mightily to score points. Finally, Pittsburgh will likely be in a negative game script. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Stallions are 8.0-point favorites, the biggest favorite on the slate.
The Gamblers are a good cheap defense. Philadelphia's offensive line has struggled to protect Cookus. As a result, Cookus has taken an eye-popping 13 sacks, the most in the USFL. He's also thrown four interceptions. Thus, the Gamblers can allow points while still producing value in DFS.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
