MLB puts out a full buffet of action on Tuesday nights, giving gamers at Underdog Fantasy a glut of pick ’em options tonight. The Red Birds dominate tonight’s highlighted props. Three Cardinals hitters are included in this piece. Additionally, a blossoming young outfielder and a strikeout-whiz pitcher are among the top picks tonight.
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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Jarred Kelenic: 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Kelenic is the latest example of why fans and gamers shouldn’t give up on highly touted prospects when they struggle initially. Development isn’t linear for every prospect. The 25-year-old outfielder struggled in his first exposures to the bigs. However, Kelenic is flourishing now.
According to FanGraphs, in 153 plate appearances this year, Kelenic has eight homers, six stolen bases, a .340 OBP, .262 ISO and 148 wRC+. Moreover, he hammers righties. Kelenic will also get a park-factor lift at Fenway Park tonight.
The matchup is ideal, too. Since last year, Nick Pivetta has coughed up a .475 SLG and .358 wOBA to left-handed batters. And he’s dreadful at Fenway Park. In 183.2 innings at home since 2021, Pivetta has had a 5.20 ERA and allowed a .341 OBP, .493 SLG and .358 wOBA. Thus, Kelenic can pile up fantasy points from the heart of Seattle’s order.
Willson Contreras: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Contreras has been in the baseball news lately because St. Louis was dissatisfied with his work behind the plate. Thankfully, he hasn’t allowed that to impact his hitting. Contreras has a .335 OBP, 104 wRC+ and .322 wOBA. However, he’s had a markedly higher .350 xwOBA. So, his batted-ball data was better than his actual results.
Contreras has done his best work against lefties. Since 2021, he’s had a .333 OBP, .272 ISO and 131 wRC+ against southpaws. Wade Miley isn’t an imposing lefty, either. Miley has a 3.60 ERA in seven starts this year, totaling 40.0 innings. Still, his 4.42 xERA and 5.28 xFIP suggest he’s been lucky. And Miley doesn’t miss bats, owning a 14.6 K% in 2023.
Paul Goldschmidt: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Goldschmidt is another outstanding piece of exposure to Miley. Since 2021, he’s had a .376 batting average, .699 slugging, .323 ISO and 215 wRC+ in 320 plate appearances against lefties. Interestingly, Goldschmidt has dialed up his aggression against lefties this year. He’s had only a 2.2 BB% while tallying a .364 batting average, .545 slugging and .182 ISO in 45 plate appearances against lefties in 2023.
The park factors are perfect for Goldy’s total bases prop, too. Right-handed batters have park factors of 1.147 for singles, 1.315 for doubles, 1.461 for triples and 1.205 for homers at Fenway Park. Thus, Miley’s pitch-to-contact approach is unlikely to treat him well tonight.
Nolan Arenado: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Arenado will benefit from the same matchup and park factors as Contreras and Goldy. Yet, he’s also possibly the hottest hitter on the planet. Arenado has mashed a tater in his previous four games. And in 51 plate appearances since May 3, he’s had a .340 batting average, .723 slugging, .383 ISO, one double, one triple and five homers.
Arenado’s also a lefty killer. In 284 plate appearances against lefties since 2023, he’s had a .273 batting average, .605 slugging and .332 ISO. Therefore, Miley’s pitch-to-contact approach is a lousy fit for cooling off Arenado.
Cristian Javier: 7.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Javier is a strikeout machine in an excellent matchup for punching out batters. In Javier’s previous four starts, he’s struck out 35 batters in 24.2 innings, going over 7.5 strikeouts three times.
Javier has also dazzled in the strikeout department at home. In 185.2 innings at home in his career, he’s had 10.71 K/9 and 30.0 K%.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are striking out at an eye-popping rate lately. In the previous 14 days, they’ve struck out at a 26.6% clip, the second-highest mark in MLB during that stretch. So, the over looks good for Javier’s strikeout prop.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
