Friday night is a baseball fan’s dream. The night is filled with games, giving fans plenty of contests to enjoy and many player props to choose from at Underdog Fantasy. After looking across Underdog Fantasy’s player prop offerings, the following five stood out as the most desirable options.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Zack Wheeler: 6.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Sadly, Wheeler has a challenging matchup for striking out batters. According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox have the lowest strikeout rate (18.4 K%) against righties this year and the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.7 K%) over the last 14 days. Nevertheless, Wheeler has dominated at home.
Since 2021, he’s had 10.43 K/9 and a 30.1 K% in 220.0 innings. Additionally, he’s struck out more than 6.5 batters in 21 of 34 games at home since 2021. Thus, I trust Wheeler’s home strikeout dominance to win out tonight against Boston’s strikeout-averse lineup.
Byron Buxton: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher
Buxton is dialed in. In 58 plate appearances in his last 13 games, he’s had a .306 batting average, .414 OBP, .490 ISO, 224 wRC+, 11 runs, 13 RBI and 15 hits. Additionally, Buxton has had more than 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs in five consecutive games and seven of his last eight contests.
Buxton also has a good matchup. Peyton Battenfield has a 4.67 ERA, 7.43 xERA and 5.88 xFIP this season in 17.1 innings. He’s also allowed a .346 wOBA to right-handed batters. Therefore, Buxton should get the better of him and deliver the over for 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs.
Brent Rooker: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Rooker is ripping the cover off the ball this year. In 98 plate appearances, he has nine homers, a 15.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, .429 OBP, .367 ISO and 204 wRC+. Thankfully, the batted-ball data is buying what he’s selling, evidenced by Rooker’s .301 xBA, .646 xSLG and .449 xwOBA.
The right-handed slugger has also thrived against righties. He has a .456 OBP, .321 ISO and 204 wRC+ in 68 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season. Conversely, Brad Keller is flirting with disaster. His 3.56 ERA isn’t sustainable. Keller has a 4.76 xERA, 5.41 xFIP, 18.0 BB% and 18.0 K%. So, Rooker is a good bet to score more than 6.5 fantasy points tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Goldschmidt is a certified lefty-killer. In 303 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since 2021, he’s had a .454 OBP, .328 ISO and 216 wRC+. The reigning NL MVP is also thriving this year. Goldy has a .396 OBP, .200 ISO, 149 wRC+, .590 xSLG, .429 xwOBA and three stolen bases in 139 plate appearances.
Matthew Boyd is an unlikely candidate to keep Goldy in check. In five starts spanning 24.2 innings this season, he has a 5.47 ERA and 5.26 xFIP. Boyd has also yielded a .352 OBP, .456 slugging and .354 wOBA to right-handed batters this year. So, the matchup is excellent for Goldschmidt.
Cristian Javier: 6.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Javier is a strikeout hurler with bat-missing stuff. In six starts totaling 33.2 innings this year, he has 9.36 K/9, a 25.2 K% and 13.2 SwStr%. Sadly, he’s struck out more than 6.5 batters just once this year, fanning 10 Braves on April 23.
Thankfully, Javier has a mouthwatering matchup for strikeouts tonight. The Mariners have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.8 K%) against righties this year. Moreover, Seattle has had the highest strikeout rate (30.2 K%) in the last 14 days. As a result, Javier should exceed 6.5 strikeouts tonight.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
