The Friday night MLB slate is stuffed. Everyone is playing tonight. So, the Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em lobby is an array of goodies to pick from. The following five picks were the most exciting selections and feature a mix of pitching and hitting props, with three of the former and two of the latter.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Graham Ashcraft: 90.5 Pitches – Higher
Ashcraft is taking a step forward in his sophomore campaign. According to FanGraphs, he has a 3.82 ERA and 4.11 xERA in seven starts, totaling 37.2 innings. The young righty is also a pitch-modeling darling, owning the fourth-highest Stuff+ (125) among qualified pitchers this season.
The Reds aren’t coddling their young hurler, either. He’s thrown more than 90.5 pitches in 17 of 26 starts since last year, eclipsing 90.5 pitches in seven of 12 road tilts. Ashcraft has an excellent matchup tonight, too. The Marlins are 27th in wRC+ (80) against righties this year. So, Ashcraft should pitch deep enough to throw more than 90.5 pitches tonight.
Spencer Strider: 8.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Strider is a strikeout machine. Among qualified pitchers this year, he’s comfortably first for strikeouts per nine innings (15.08 K/9) and strikeout rate (42.4 K%). Thankfully, Strider’s strikeout prowess isn’t flukey. The righty’s 36.1 CSW% is the highest among qualified pitchers. Furthermore, Strider’s 129 Stuff+ is the second-highest mark among qualified pitchers.
As a result, he’s struck out at least eight batters in all seven of his starts this year. In fact, he’s struck out more than eight batters six times. The Blue Jays aren’t a pushover. Still, Strider can carve them up, and Toronto’s 22.0 K% against right-handed pitchers shouldn’t dissuade gamers from selecting higher for 8.0 strikeouts for Strider.
Paul Goldschmidt: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Goldschmidt destroys lefties, and James Paxton might not have anything left in the tank. Since 2021, Goldy has had 28 doubles, one triple, 20 homers, a .376 batting average, .708 slugging and .332 ISO in 312 plate appearances against lefties.
The reigning NL MVP will get a lift from the park factors at Fenway Park tonight, too. Right-handed batters have park factors of 1.147 for singles, 1.315 for doubles, 1.461 for triples and 1.205 for homers at Fenway Park.
Meanwhile, Paxton hasn’t pitched in the majors since April 2021 because of injuries. And he wasn’t sharp in his Triple-A appearances this season. Paxton’s lousy control is the biggest threat to Goldy surpassing 1.5 total bases. Goldschmidt could work multiple walks and fail to record hits. Nevertheless, Goldy’s dominance against lefties, coupled with Paxton being a shell of himself at his peak, is a recipe for more than 1.5 total bases.
Willson Contreras: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Paxton allowed a .283 batting average and .533 slugging to 68 right-handed batters in his last somewhat extensive action in the majors in 2020. He also allowed a .233 batting average, .433 slugging, .200 ISO and two homers to 67 righties in Triple-A this year.
So, why stop at Goldy’s prop for total bases? Contreras also has excellent numbers against lefties and can benefit from the park factors at Fenway Park. In 288 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he’s had 13 doubles, one triple, 18 homers, a .251 batting average, .526 slugging, and .275 ISO. Thus, it’s fun to snag Goldy’s and Contreras’s props for more than 1.5 total bases and chase St. Louis exploding tonight.
J.P. France: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher
France struck out five batters in 5.0 innings in his major-league debut last week in Seattle. Ergo, projecting more than 4.5 strikeouts in all of his starts from now on is wise, right? Joking aside, France piled up strikeouts at an eye-catching rate in the minors, including at the minor’s highest level.
In 210.1 innings in Triple-A since 2021, France has had a 29.8 K%, 11.51 K/9 and 269 strikeouts. He also had stellar swinging-strike percentages, owning a 15.0 SwStr% in Triple-A in 2021, a 12.8 SwStr% in 2022 and a 13.8 SwStr% in 2023.
The White Sox are an adequate matchup for his punchout potential tonight. The Pale Hose have struck out in 22.1% of their plate appearances against righties this season. Thus, France can exceed 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
