Justin Mason | Sun, May 14th 2023, 7:17am EDT

Two-Start SP Rankings, Tiers & Targets: Week 7 (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Now that the season has really gotten going, it is time to start grinding the two-start pitchers to give you an advantage over your competition.

Each week, I will be giving you a breakdown of the two-start options for your fantasy leagues broken up into the following tiers:

Must Start: The guys that you have to start because of their talent and/or matchups.
Should Start: These are the guys that are rostered in most formats and probably should be in your lineup.
Here We Go: Pitchers that you are probably starting in most formats but have some level of risk to them.
Feeling Lucky: Pitchers available in less than 25% of leagues that are risky, but viable in deeper formats.
Desperate Measures: Pitchers you shouldn’t use unless you have no other choice.

More Week 7 Advice:

Week 7 Two-Start Starting Pitcher Rankings

These are projected two-start pitchers and are subject to change.

Must Start

Shane Bieber (at CHW, at NYM)
Pablo Lopez (at LAD, at LAA)
Framber Valdez (vs CHC, vs OAK)
Shohei Ohtani (at BAL, vs MIN)
Charlie Morton (at TEX, vs SEA)
Jesus Luzardo (vs WAS, at SF)
Justin Verlander (at WAS, vs CLE)
Clayton Kershaw (vs MIN, at STL)

Should Start

Merrill Kelly (at OAK, at PIT)

Kelly has been pretty good to start the season, throwing 45.1 innings of a 3.18 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 46 strikeouts. He is getting a 47% ground ball rate that helps him keep himself out of trouble with home runs. He is getting a pretty juicy two-step versus the worst team in baseball in the A’s and a struggling offense in the Pirates in two fantastic pitcher’s parks.

Josiah Gray (at MIA, vs DET)

Gray has been great this season, allowing a 2.96 ERA in 45.2 innings this season. He has made a pitch mix change that has cut down his home run rate in exchange for less strikeouts and it has been working for him. He has a pretty fantastic two-start week versus bad Miami and Detroit teams.

George Kirby (at BOS, at ATL)

Kirby would normally be in the Must Start tier, but these are tough matchups which makes him a bit more scary to use. The Red Sox have been the second best team in baseball against right handed pitching and the Braves have been a top 10 offense at home this year. That being said, Kirby has been fantastic this season, allowing a 2.62 ERA and a .96 WHIP in 44.2 innings with 35 strikeouts and there are not many scenarios where I wouldn’t run him out there.

Here We Go

Seth Lugo (vs KC, vs BOS)

Lugo has quietly been very good this season, throwing 39.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA and 36 strikeouts for the Padres this season. However, these are scary matchups with the Royals having been on fire over the last two weeks and scoring the second most runs in baseball during that span and the Red Sox who murder right handed pitching. There is a lot of risk with this one in spite of how well Lugo has pitched.

Hunter Greene (at COL, vs NYY)

Greene has been the quintessential example of an up and down pitcher this season. He has five games with two or less earned runs allowed and three games with three or more. He gets tons of strikeouts, but also can struggle mightily with home runs and walks. He has some tough matchups having to go to Colorado and hosting the Yankees, so this is a risky spot to use a guy that can struggle with the long ball.

Yonny Chirinos (at NYM, vs MIL)

Chirinos may be the most boring fantasy pitcher in baseball with stellar ratios and the worst strikeout rate for a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues. There is so little upside because of the lack of strikeouts that he is not a super enticing pitcher to use, but he does a good job of eliciting weak contact and can be a boost to your ratios if that is what you need.

Alek Manoah (vs NYY, vs BAL)

Manoah has been one of the more disappointing pitchers in baseball this year, posting a 4.83 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 41 innings this season. Unfortunately this is not a matter of him being unlucky either. The underlying numbers point to him actually being worse than this. With a bad matchup versus the Yankees and a decent one versus the Orioles, I understand potentially wanting to sit him for this two-start week, but that is hard to do with one of the top pitchers from your draft.

Lance Lynn (vs CLE, vs KC)

Lynn has been a frustrating pitcher to roster this season, allowing a 7.51 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 44.1 innings pitched this season. However, while the numbers are atrocious, the underlying skills are in line with who he has been in the past. He is getting unlucky in balls in play and in his strand rate. The big concern is if he can cut down the home runs, but he is getting unlucky there allowing a 22% HR/FB rate which is double his career average. I think better days are ahead. He has a tough matchup with the flaming hot Royals and a great one with the ice cold Guardians, so I am rolling with him this week while others may be dropping him.

Feeling Lucky

Dane Dunning (vs ATL, vs COL)

Dunning is a better version of a boring starter than Chirinos, but not by much. He has only struck out 15.8% of the batters he has faced this season and while the ERA and WHIP are fantastic, the matchup versus the Braves is a bit scary. It is balanced out by the great matchup versus the Rockies who have the sixth highest strikeout rate and third lowest OPS in baseball when they are on the road. I think I am willing to risk it in deeper formats versus the Braves to get that Rockies start.

Patrick Corbin (vs NYM, vs DET)

Corbin normally would be in the “Desperate Measure” tier, but he has actually pitched well as of late. In his last five starts he has a 3.56 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 21 strikeouts in 30.1 innings pitched. He gets a pretty nice two-step here as well versus the Mets and Tigers who are both outside of the top 20 teams in on base + slugging percentage versus left handed pitching.

Domingo German (at TOR, at CIN)

German has pitched well enough this season, posting a 4.00 ERA and a .96 WHIP with 47 strikeouts in 45 innings pitched. The problem with him in these two steps is he tends to be a bit home prone and that is not something you want to mess with often in Great American Ball Park or against the Toronto Blue Jays lineup.

Desperate Measure

Jack Flaherty (vs MIL, vs LAD)
Sean Manaea (vs PHI, vs MIA)
Noah Syndergaard (vs MIN, at STL)
Connor Seabold (vs CIN, at TEX)
Jameson Taillon (at HOU, at PHI)
Grayson Rodriguez (vs LAA, at TOR)
Dean Kremer (vs LAA, at TOR)
Eric Lauer (at STL, at TB)
Bailey Falter (at SF, vs CHC)
Jhony Brito (at TOR, at CIN)
Brad Keller (at SD, at CHW)

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