Arguably the most perplexing position across the fantasy football landscape, tight end seems to be an annual Pandora’s Box these days. In 2022, there were just six players who scored more than 100 fantasy points in standard-format scoring leagues: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Taysom Hill, Mark Andrews and Evan Engram. It is not hyperbole to also note that this list of tight ends might be the top five or six (if we exclude Hill) talented across the NFL in any given year.
The reasoning above is why it can be so difficult to accurately predict and draft a strong tight end option once the top tiers are off the board. Weekly output from the position has become so hard to predict that if you don’t get a Kelce or Kittle of the world, it may make sense to fade the spot completely. Some of the next highest scoring options in 2022 went at the end of drafts or went completely undrafted such as Cole Kmet (97.3 FPts), Juwan Johnson (92.8 FPts), and Jordan Akins (79.5 FPts).
One way to get ahead of the tight end chaos can be to look ahead at pending positional battles we will see in training camp and beyond during the offseason. With the NFL draft behind us, is there a path for a new crop of rookies to make a push up the tight end average draft position (ADP) boards? Are there second and third-year guys primed for breakouts? Let’s take a look at a few battles to monitor in the upcoming weeks/months.
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Tight End Battles to Monitor (2023 Fantasy Football)
Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid vs. Dawson Knox
The battle of the Bills’ “DK” tight ends will be one of the most intriguing storylines to follow throughout the offseason. For all intents and purposes, Buffalo picking Kincaid in this year’s draft was a bit of a surprise. The team was able to stay tight-lipped heading into round one, but they clearly had the now 25th overall pick high on their board after trading up in the first round to snag him.
Kincaid is coming out of the University of Utah after two full seasons in which he posted 106 catches for 1400 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. He arguably had the best receiving profile out of any tight end in the 2023 class and has the stature and athleticism of a more-than-competent NFL slot receiver. Kincaid is landing in an incredible spot given the Bills’ prolific offense — the only debate is if he will be able to fend off his tight end counterpart from the jump.
Dawson Knox has been a fantasy sleeper pick over the past two seasons, and he became a red zone favorite of QB Josh Allen, scoring 15 times himself since 2020. Knox is no slouch as a receiver, as he has also hauled in 149 receptions over his four-year career, but his numbers figure to dip in 2023.
It would be no surprise if Knox starts off well in the upcoming campaign as Kincaid continues to get up to speed, but the rookie will likely be the preferred pass-game option come season’s end. Kincaid currently has a ~120.0 ADP in NFL Best Ball formats, while Knox sits around the 160.0 range.
Dallas Cowboys: Jake Ferguson vs. Luke Schoonmaker
The Dallas Cowboys lost their incumbent starter Dalton Schultz to free agency this offseason, paving the way for second-year man Jake Ferguson to take over as the top guy on offense. That was until Dallas expended a second-round pick (58 overall) to select Luke Schoonmaker out of Michigan back in April.
Schoonmaker was the fifth tight end drafted by pick 58 in 2023, in what was noted as one of the deeper positional classes in recent memory. The 24-year-old rookie had 35 receptions for 418 yards and three scores during his final season at Michigan but was most known for his impressive strength and blocking in Jim Harbaugh’s run-first offense.
Jake Ferguson will be entering his sophomore campaign after playing as a fourth-round rookie in the Cowboys’ offense last season. Splitting time with the aforementioned Schultz, Ferguson managed 19 receptions (on 22 targets) for 174 yards and two touchdowns in 2022. Also known as a block-first tight end, it feels as if there will be room for both him and Schoonmaker on the field in 2023.
Ferguson should have a leg up on the position as training camp kicks off this summer, specifically given his familiarity with the Dallas offense and previously formed chemistry with QB Dak Prescott. Unlike Dalton Kincaid in Buffalo, Schoonmaker will likely have to earn early playing time through his blocking prowess off the bat. Ferguson feels like he could be a relatively smart end-of-draft sleeper pick in 14-to-16 team fantasy formats and also as a late-round dart throw in NFL Best Ball drafts.
New England Patriots: Mike Gesicki vs. Hunter Henry
The tight end battle in New England this offseason should also be as intriguing as it gets. There are going to be so many new elements to the Patriots’ offensive attack in 2023, starting with the reinstatement of their former offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien. With this new addition, that entire side of the ball is set for an overhaul. This change should benefit both Hunter Henry and the newly added Mike Gesicki in a multitude of ways.
Gesicki could be a vital part of the passing attack this upcoming season- the 27-year-old fifth-year tight end has a career line of 231-2617-18 on 370 targets. Not known as an exceptional blocker, Gesicki could find himself lining up in the slot on an abundance of his routes run in 2023.
Gesicki came out of April’s NFL draft as a winner, as New England did not pick any high-capital receivers to add to their depleted corps. Everything early on is lining up for him to be a top-three passing option on the team leading up to the opener. Gesicki is currently going as the 24th tight end off the board in NFL Best Ball drafts (190.4 ADP). His ADP should steadily climb as the summer rolls along.
Hunter Henry, in his own right, could be an even bigger steal in fantasy leagues than his new counterpart at the moment. Henry is essentially going undrafted, as the signing of Gesicki, coupled with his down 2022 season, have pushed early-season drafters away from him. People have been quick to forget that Henry is just one season removed from a career-best 50-603-9 line in 2021, and it is no secret that he and Mac Jones are very close friends these days.
The Patriots had the option to release Henry this offseason for salary cap relief, but they opted not to do so, insinuating that he remains a large part of their plans.
There should be excitement in New England to find out what both Henry and Mike Gesicki will be capable of doing with O’Brien leading the way. There is certainly an opportunity for both of these guys to produce in what will be a more efficient offense. I love both Gesicki and Henry at current cost in best ball, and they should make sense as last-round lottery ticket fliers in season-long leagues this offseason.
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