Now that the 2023 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, the fantasy football world has turned its focus to dynasty rookie drafts. While many agree on the top five or six players, there is a ton of variance after that first handful of picks. Furthermore, everyone has a different opinion on which rookies you should avoid drafting.
However, there is a difference in the rookie class between dynasty and redraft leagues. Some rookies you want to avoid in dynasty and redraft leagues as they have bust written all over them. Meanwhile, other rookies are excellent dynasty picks, yet they will struggle in 2023, making them players to avoid in redraft leagues. Let’s look at rookies I don’t want to draft this year.
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Rookies to Avoid
These are players I want in rookie and dynasty startup drafts. However, I don’t expect much from them this year. Therefore, these players will be on my do not draft list for redraft leagues.
Rookies to Avoid in Redraft Leagues
Bryce Young (QB – CAR) & C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
These two were my top two quarterbacks leading up to the NFL Draft. However, rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in their first year in the league. Over the past seven years, only two first-round quarterbacks ended their rookie season in the top 15. One of them was Kyler Murray, who averaged nearly five fantasy points per game on the ground. The other was Justin Herbert, who finished fourth in the league in pass attempts. While Anthony Richardson‘s rushing ability makes him a potential sleeper quarterback as a rookie, Young and Stroud are more traditional pocket passers. I love both quarterbacks long-term, but expect them to end their rookie season outside the top 20.
The former Buckeye was the top rookie receiver leading up to the NFL Draft. He remains the top rookie receiver, but Smith-Njigba didn’t land in an ideal situation for his fantasy value next year, as Seattle already has two talented wide receivers. Last season DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined for 258 targets, nearly 50% of Geno Smith‘s pass attempts. Meanwhile, Noah Fant finished third on the team in targets with 63 last year. Furthermore, no Seahawk besides Lockett has seen more than 63 targets any year since the team drafted Metcalf in 2019. Smith-Njigba will be a star one day. Unfortunately, the former Buckeye’s name recognition will make his ADP higher than it should be this year.
Despite being the third tight end drafted, Mayer remains my rookie TE2. However, rookie tight ends always struggle. Over the past five years, Kyle Pitts is the only tight end to finish in the top 12. Furthermore, Pat Freiermuth is the only tight end to finish in the top 15 in his rookie season. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a crowded receiver room. Davante Adams had 180 targets last year and won’t see his target share cut. Las Vegas has Hunter Renfrow and signed Jakobi Meyers to a healthy contract this offseason. The Raiders also signed Austin Hooper and a trio of veteran wide receivers. Then they spent a third-round pick on Tre Tucker. Mayer will have an uphill fight for targets as a rookie.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
