Now that the 2023 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, the fantasy football world has turned its focus to dynasty rookie drafts. While many agree on the top five or six players, there is a ton of variance after that first handful of picks. Furthermore, everyone has a different opinion on which rookies you should avoid drafting.
However, there is a difference in the rookie class between dynasty and redraft leagues. Some rookies you want to avoid in dynasty and redraft leagues as they have bust written all over them. Meanwhile, other rookies are excellent dynasty picks, yet they will struggle in 2023, making them players to avoid in redraft leagues. Let’s look at rookies I don’t want to draft this year.
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Rookies to Avoid
I won’t pick these players in rookie drafts or dynasty startup leagues. They are players I had a lower pre-draft grade than most experts, and their situation severely hampered their dynasty outlook.
Rookies to Avoid in Dynasty Leagues
Many thought Hooker would be a first-round draft pick. Yet, he slipped to the third round of the NFL Draft. The Lions grabbed the former Volunteer, but there have been reports that the team wants to work out a long-term deal with Jared Goff. Once that long-term deal gets done, Hooker becomes locked into a backup role. I would be on board with the former Tennessee quarterback if Hooker was a first-round pick. However, his third-round draft capital makes it easier for Detroit to lock Hooker into the backup role or even move on from him next year like the Carolina Panthers did with Matt Corral this year.
I don’t get the hype around Miller. He’s sitting third on the depth chart behind two productive veterans. Alvin Kamara is facing a suspension this year, but the team added Jamaal Williams for that reason. Meanwhile, Williams had a career year last year. More importantly, the two veteran running backs are locked in with the Saints through the 2024 season. Maybe Miller can earn snaps at the two veteran’s expense, but there is no pathway to a lead role in the next two years. Furthermore, the Saints could crush Miller’s fantasy value a year from now. Despite being a third-round pick, the San Francisco 49ers destroyed Tyrion Davis-Price‘s fantasy value less than seven months after drafting him.
Luke Musgrave (TE – GB) & Tucker Kraft (TE – GB)
Jordan Love is now the starting quarterback in Green Bay. However, fantasy players don’t know if he’s a star in the making or a former first-round bust. Meanwhile, the Packers drafted six wide receivers over the past two years, including a pair of second-rounders (Christian Watson and Jayden Reed). Furthermore, the team drafting two rookie TEs with similar draft capital makes it an open competition between Musgrave and Kraft for the starting role. More importantly, Green Bay has never been a fantasy-friendly spot for tight ends. In the four years Matt LaFleur has been the head coach, the leading Packers tight end has averaged only 54.8 targets per season. There are too many unknowns here for me to draft either tight end.tin Hooper and a trio of veteran wide receivers. Then they spent a third-round pick on Tre Tucker. Mayer will have an uphill fight for targets as a rookie.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
