The years of rookies taking time to marinate on NFL depth charts before exploding with high-level production are in the past. Rookies can be some of the best values in best ball drafts with season-defining upside if everything falls in line. With all that said, every year, rookie landmines can sink even the best-laid best ball plans.
NFL Draft cycle buzz, athletic testing hype, and helmet scouting can easily lead to best ball beer-goggle drafting. Don’t endure the walk of shame in 2023, and avoid these rookies in best ball drafts.
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Best Ball League Rookies to Avoid
Here are rookies to avoid in best ball formats.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young ? Jonathan Mingo pic.twitter.com/awMY3eXzgz
— Michael Rimmer (@avl_mike) May 12, 2023
The Panthers aren’t starting on the right foot, with rumblings that Young is the QB2 behind Andy Dalton right now. While I don’t put a ton of stock in that, it’s still notable.
My worries about Young revolve around his possible ceiling. What does that look like if he “hits” in his rookie season? Does Young become a weekly QB2 with some top-12 spike weeks in fantasy?
Young has a sturdy offensive line (fourth-lowest pressure rate allowed last year), but his pass-catching weapons are meh at best. A starting trio of Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, or Terrace Marshall doesn’t make my spider sense tingle.
Young only averaged 292 rushing yards across his final two collegiate seasons, so the rushing upside (if there is any) isn’t enough to push the needle if his passing stats aren’t exceptional. Young is crossed off my draft list.
I can make a similar argument for a capped ceiling for Levis as I did for Young, but the bigger issue for Levis is Ryan Tannehill. While the team could trade him in-season or transition to Levis after their bye week, the possibility that Levis has a red-shirt season is also in the range of outcomes.
I could wax poetic about Levis’ questionable mechanics and decision-making or how he is late to feel pressure and flees clean pockets, but I won’t. The quarterback pool is too deep this year, with Konami options even in the later rounds to consider dumpster diving in the mayonnaise isle with Mr. Levis.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 29, 2023
I still haven’t recovered from the sting of Seattle’s draft selection of Charbonnet. That pain is still real, and it’s raw. Seriously though, where will Seattle conjure up the rushing volume in this offense to support two backs in 2023?
Unless they drastically change last year’s offensive design, which revitalized Geno Smith, I don’t see it. Last year Seattle was tenth in neutral passing rate, 22nd in rushing attempts, and ninth in red zone passing rate. This pass-heavy team added a first-round wide receiver in the offseason.
No matter how you slice it – rushing volume or running-back touchdown expectations – there’s no way I can talk myself into drafting Charbonnet this year unless I’m factoring in a possible injury for Kenneth Walker. Forecasting injuries is not something I’m willing to do.
Devon Achane (RB – MIA)
Where should I start with Achane? His 5’9″ 188 lb size? A coaching staff that has historically gotten multiple running backs involved and now has three capable rushers? How about the possible trade news of Dalvin Cook joining the Miami Dolphins?
Pick a reason. Any reason. All roads lead back to drafting Achane not being worth the squeeze in 2023.
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
Colts sign WR Josh Downs to rookie contracthttps://t.co/D4lwq5EJHg pic.twitter.com/Jhlestk8kf
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) May 16, 2023
Unlike some of these rookies, I’m not worried about Downs’ playing time this year. I don’t think the team plans to roll with Isaiah McKenzie in the slot after drafting Downs. New head coach Shane Steichen led an offense last year in Philadelphia that was fourth in usage of three or more wide receiver sets. This comes down to passing volume.
Downs will likely operate underneath while Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce garner the downfield shots. A low aDOT volume-dependent receiver in an offense that will likely skew run-heavy doesn’t equal fantasy goodness. Downs could have the occasional spike week this year, but even those won’t come without enough regularity or magnitude to be worth drafting him.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
Tillman is among those rookies I referenced earlier, that I’m frightened about their playing time prospects for 2023. Tillman was drafted to be the eventual replacement for Donovan Peoples-Jones, a free agent, after this season.
Unless Peoples-Jones or Elijah Moore falls on their face, they will line up opposite Amari Cooper in three-receiver sets this year. Tillman is off my draft list.
Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)
Take his testing out of the equation…
Then PLEASE TELL ME…
a good reason for hyping up Jonathan Mingo ?
Is it his final season YPRR?
ranked 94th (min 50 targets per PFF)….No.
———————————————-
Is it his final season PFF receiving grade?…— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 6, 2023
If Mingo can’t beat out Marshall in camp, he will also be nothing more than a part-time player this season. Before you immediately snub your nose at Marshall in favor of the hyped-up Mingo, consider the growth Marshall showed in his sophomore season.
In the ten games last season in which he played at least 85% of the snaps after Week 7, he ranked 34th in yards per route run (among 58 wide receivers with at least 39 targets) and sixth in YAC per reception. I already discussed my worries about Bryce Young’s ceiling in 2023. Those worries trickle back down to his pass catchers, especially those not assured of definite playing time.
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