Quarterbacks make the world go round when it comes to the NFL. However, they play an essential role in fantasy football as well. If you draft an underperforming quarterback, he may give you a safe floor, but he limits your chances at an optimal point projection each week. Conversely, drafting a quarterback who can give you a high upside ceiling will allow your team to unlock a new level and win your fantasy championships. Let me break down a list of QBs to avoid in 2023, starting with the man under center in Dallas.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Avoid Drafting
2023 will be a make-or-break year for Dak Prescott. After finishing QB2 in 2019, Prescott left much to be desired for fantasy football players in the last few seasons. He has dealt with injuries for two of the previous three years, while his passing efficiency has also taken a hit. Last season he threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions while his yards per attempt (YPA) dropped to 7.3
The biggest issue with Dak Prescott could be the coaching philosophy this season, as the Dallas Cowboys have moved on from Kellen Moore and Mike McCarthy has stated he would prefer to return to running the ball more so his defense can rest. With the head coach wanting to slow down the game and Dak averaging a bleak 238.3 passing yards per game in 2022, the elite fantasy production you need from the position to win could be M.I.A in Dallas.
Daniel Jones was mistake-prone to begin his career until last season when he kept his turnovers down and finished as QB9 for the season. Due to this finish, his ADP will be inflated this season, and the real question you have to ask is, “Will he be worth it at his ADP when I draft?” Fantasy football is all about predicting the future and following the narrative with the highest probability. When you sit back and think of Daniel Jones, the narrative makes me question if we will ever see him surpassing QB9 overall in any season, considering the last three years he has thrown for 11, 10 and 15 touchdowns.
Next, we look at the off-season of the New York Giants, where they added a talented tight end in Darren Waller, plus a plethora of wide receivers to work with Daniel Jones. Unfortunately, what may seem like a plus on paper can hinder Jones and his fantasy value because his rushing attempts will decrease. The greatest aspect of Jones is his Konami Code ability for your lineup. Last season he had 120 rushing attempts that turned into 720 yards and seven touchdowns. This number should see a negative regression with all the new players entering the New York Giants facility. If you take the running away from Daniel Jones, you take away the only appealing factor to his fantasy game. Avoid becoming a fantasy player who drafts based on last season.
Did you know Derek Carr hasn’t been a top-10 quarterback in fantasy since 2016? He was also benched for Jarrett Stidham last season after his former team, the Las Vegas Raiders, traded for Davante Adams to help catapult him into the forefront of the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Carr will have a nice arsenal of weapons with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson while facing the weaker NFC (and AFC) South. However, Carr is the definition of a quarterback who won’t flash for your team and win you a week and that’s something we cannot use on our fantasy teams if we plan to win our leagues.
Don’t get cute with Kyler Murray in 2023. Yes, he is a Konami-Code-style quarterback I usually push you toward when healthy. However, he was injured last season and his status for 2023 is up in the air. Some people report he may come back mid-season. However, from an organizational standpoint, that wouldn’t make sense for Arizona. The Cardinals are in the first year with a rookie head coach in Jonathan Gannon. Arizona also paid Murray a fortune with his new contract, which means they will be careful with their asset due to the sunken cost into the position. The big reason why the Cardinals won’t rush Murray back in 2023: The 2024 draft.
In the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals hold the first-round pick for their team but also the Houston Texans. Most people are reporting the Houston Texans to still struggle in 2023 and they also believe the Cardinals will struggle throughout the season. Therefore, the Cardinals could have two top-five selections in the 2024 NFL Draft to either retool quickly around their franchise quarterback or trade him and start fresh with a rookie quarterback. Regardless of the scenario, each requires Kyler Murray to be fully healthy heading into 2024. This narrative leads me to believe he will sit this season out and return in 2024, rendering him useless for any draft this season.
If you avoid these quarterbacks in your draft, you will leave yourself a chance at your optimal point projection within your league. Remember to keep researching using the excellent work here at FantasyPros, and if you need any more advice, you can always reach out to me on Twitter at @jpep20. Good Luck in 2023 with your fantasy teams!
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